The IMF predicts Iraq’s economy will contract by 6.8% due to shipping risks and rising inflation.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted on Wednesday that the Iraqi economy will experience a significant contraction during 2026, amid escalating repercussions of the conflict in the Middle East and continued pressure on global energy markets, placing the country among the most affected by the current crisis.

According to the IMF’s estimates, Iraq’s GDP is likely to decline by as much as 6.8% next year, as a result of the disruptions affecting the oil sector, which is the backbone of the Iraqi economy and the state’s main source of revenue.

This decline comes at a time when the region is experiencing instability, especially with the continuation of tensions that have directly affected navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping lanes, leading to disruption of export operations and increased shipping and insurance costs for oil tankers.

The rise in oil prices to record levels may not be entirely positive for Iraq, as it is accompanied by a rise in import costs and inflationary pressures, which is reflected in the prices of goods and services within the country and increases the living burdens on citizens.

In the same context, the Fund warned that a longer conflict could push oil prices above $110 a barrel, which would make controlling inflation more difficult and lead to tighter monetary policies globally, negatively impacting developing economies, including Iraq.

According to the IMF data, the effects will not be limited to Iraq alone, as the GDP of a number of countries in the region is expected to decline, including Qatar by 8.6%, Iran by 6.1%, Kuwait by 0.6%, and Bahrain by 0.5%, due to the repercussions of the conflict and rising energy costs.

If these conditions persist, Iraq may face a double pressure of fluctuating oil revenues on the one hand, and increased government spending to address the repercussions of the crisis on the other, which may affect the country’s financial and economic stability.

Shafaq.com

Despite the Hormuz blockade, giant tankers are heading to Basra ports, and Iraqi crude oil is flowing to markets.

Giant oil tankers continue their journeys to Iraqi ports to load crude shipments, despite escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the tightening of the US embargo on ships linked to Iran, in an indication of the continued global demand for Iraqi oil and the assurance of the security of its supplies.

Shipping data from the international ship-tracking company Kpler showed that the giant oil tanker “Alecia” – which is on the US sanctions lists – entered the waters of the Gulf and is expected to dock in Iraq in the coming days.

In the same context, the tanker “Agios Phanorios 1” was spotted making its way towards Basra to load a shipment of “Basra crude” destined for a refinery in Vietnam.

In contrast, the data revealed that the tanker “Rich Stary” failed to overcome the American embargo imposed on ships that had previously docked in Iranian ports, forcing it to return to the Strait of Hormuz one day after attempting to leave the Gulf.

This maritime confusion comes in the wake of Washington’s announcement of a comprehensive naval blockade on Tehran, which has severely restricted the movement of ships; tankers linked to the Iranian side have been unable to cross the strait in recent hours, and some have been forced to return to their points of origin.

These measures have caused a noticeable decline in shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz – the world’s most important energy artery – amid a state of anticipation and caution prevailing in global energy markets as they await the outcome of the current escalation.

Shafaq.com

CENTCOM announces complete shutdown of Iranian maritime trade

The US military announced on Wednesday that Iranian ports were completely blockaded and that maritime trade to and from Iran had completely stopped.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander Brad Cooper said in a statement that “the naval blockade of Iranian ports has been fully implemented, with US forces maintaining naval superiority in the Middle East.”

The statement added: “It is estimated that 90 percent of the Iranian economy depends on international trade by sea, and in less than 36 hours since the imposition of the blockade, US forces have completely halted maritime trade to and from Iran.”

US President Donald Trump announced on Sunday a blockade of Iranian ports, after a round of negotiations between the two sides in Islamabad on Saturday failed.

It is noted that the US Central Command (CENTCOM) had previously announced that it would begin implementing a ban on maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports, starting on April 13 at 10:00 AM Eastern Time, based on an announcement issued by the US President.

Shafaq.com

State of Law responds to “Reconstruction”: Maliki has not and will not withdraw his candidacy for Prime Minister

The State of Law Coalition confirmed on Wednesday that its leader, Nouri al-Maliki, is committed to his candidacy for prime minister, in response to proposals that suggested presenting Basim al-Badri as a compromise candidate within the coordination framework.

Coalition member Zuhair al-Jalabi told Shafaq News Agency that “Maliki has not and will not give up his candidacy for the premiership for any of the names being circulated in the media, and he cannot give up.”

He added that “the coordinating framework, which nominated Maliki for the premiership, if it decides to change its candidate by a majority vote and nominate another person, then this is possible and acceptable.”

Al-Jalabi explained that “so far there is no candidate for the premiership other than al-Maliki,” stressing that “al-Maliki asked the Coordination Framework, in the event of any alternative candidate, to announce him through a majority agreement within the Framework, as happened with his nomination.”

He stressed that “Al-Maliki has not and will not back down, and this matter is settled. What is being presented in the media is incorrect, and there is absolutely no such intention on the part of Al-Maliki.”

Earlier, Qusay Mahbouba, a leader in the Reconstruction and Development Coalition, confirmed that Basim al-Badri had been put forward as a compromise candidate within the coordination framework for the position of the next Prime Minister, questioning the implications of this for Nouri al-Maliki’s political future and the unity of the framework.

Mahbouba said in a post on the “X” website, “Al-Maliki is giving way to Basim Al-Badri… Has Mr. Al-Maliki decided to retire politically? And leave the ranks of leaders? Has he decided that his giving way to Basim Al-Badri will be the straw that breaks the back of the Shiite coordination framework?”

It is worth noting that the Speaker of Parliament, Hebat al-Halbousi, had called on the largest parliamentary bloc last Saturday (April 11) to nominate its candidate for the premiership within a maximum period of 15 days, based on Article 76 of the Constitution, following the election of the President of the Republic.

Shafaq.com

A split within the framework into three factions, and Maliki confronts the objectors with a new condition.

An informed political source revealed on Wednesday that escalating divisions within the coordination framework are threatening the convening of the anticipated meeting to decide on the name of the prime minister candidate, amid sharp differences among its leaders regarding the figure who will assume the position in the next phase.

These disputes come at a time when the government formation process has entered a critical constitutional phase, following the election of Nizar Amidi as President of the Republic on April 11, and the obligation of the largest parliamentary bloc to present its candidate for the premiership within a maximum period of 15 days.

The source told Shafaq News Agency that the disagreements within the framework are no longer limited to differing viewpoints, but have developed into an actual split within the alliance into three main wings, which has cast a shadow over today’s meeting scheduled to be held at Humam Hamoudi’s house, with growing doubts about the possibility of postponing it to another date.

According to the source, the first faction insists on nominating the leader of the State of Law Coalition, Nouri al-Maliki, or any figure who enjoys his explicit support from among the proposed names, while the second faction is pushing for the renaming of the caretaker Prime Minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, while the third faction prefers to go for a compromise candidate who can gain wider acceptance within and outside the Shiite bloc.

He added that the leaders decided to put a list of names on the meeting table, including Nouri al-Maliki or someone who has his support, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, Basim al-Badri, Ali Youssef al-Shukri, Hamid al-Shatri, Abdul-Ilah al-Naili, and Mohsen al-Mandalawi.

This dispute is more sensitive because al-Maliki was originally put forward as an official candidate for the Coordination Framework for the Prime Ministership, before the calculations became complicated later due to internal objections and external pressures, most notably the American position rejecting the establishment of a government that it sees as subject to Iranian influence, which reshuffled the cards within the framework and prompted some of its parties to reopen the search for alternatives or a compromise candidate.

For his part, Abu Mithaq al-Masari, a member of the coordinating framework, told Shafaq News Agency that the problem was no longer limited to the name of the candidate, but extended to the method of withdrawing al-Maliki’s nomination itself.

According to Al-Masari, Al-Maliki insists that those who oppose his nomination submit individual requests signed with their names, thus clearly holding each party politically responsible. Meanwhile, leaders within the framework who reject his return insist that the withdrawal request be collective and under the title of the Coordinating Framework, in order to avoid turning the crisis into a direct personal confrontation with him.

The scene is becoming more complicated with the continuation of mutual boycotts within the framework, as Shafaq News sources reported earlier that a meeting scheduled for this week was postponed due to a boycott by some leaders, while a small meeting held at al-Maliki’s house discussed the agenda of the next meeting and the nominated names, with the addition of Ali al-Shukri’s name to the list of contenders, at a time when Basim al-Badri is emerging as one of the most prominent settlement candidates.

Shafaq.com

Initial agreement between Washington and Tehran to extend the ceasefire

The Associated Press, citing responsible sources, reported on Wednesday that the United States and Iran have reached a preliminary agreement to extend the ceasefire, paving the way for discussions on a permanent peace formula to end the repercussions of the 40-day military conflict in the region.

The agency quoted officials, who asked not to be identified, as saying that “Washington and Tehran have given initial approval to extend the truce in order to give diplomatic efforts an additional chance to reach sustainable solutions.”

The two sides had announced on April 8 that they had reached a two-week truce, followed by a round of negotiations in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, but it ended without tangible results.

Although the resumption of combat operations has not been officially announced, the field situation remains tense following the imposition of a US naval blockade on Iranian ports, which makes extending the truce a critical step to prevent the region from sliding into a new round of confrontation.

Shafaq.com

Al-Jubouri rules out deciding on a candidate for prime minister within the current week.

The former MP, Thaer al – Jubouri, ruled out on Tuesday the possibility of the Coordination Framework finalizing its candidate for prime minister this week. He indicated that meetings and consultations are still ongoing, suggesting that the nomination of the largest bloc’s candidate will likely be decided in the final hours of the constitutional deadline.

Speaking to Al-Maalomah, al-Jubouri said, “Speculation that the Coordination Framework will officially announce its candidate for the next prime minister this week is unlikely, in our view, for several reasons.” He added that “holding a broad meeting among the Framework’s leaders may depend on the understandings that will emerge regarding this important matter.”

He explained that “the final hours of the constitutional deadline for presenting the largest bloc’s candidate to the president for his appointment may witness the identification and naming of the candidate.” He clarified that “several names are being discussed, but the Coordination Framework, as the largest parliamentary bloc, is ultimately the body authorized to nominate the candidate.”

Al-Jubouri affirmed that “the Coordination Framework is committed to the constitutional timelines and keen to expedite the formation of the government in light of clear internal and external challenges, particularly in the financial, economic, and security sectors.” He stressed that “forming a fully empowered government is of paramount importance, not only for the Coordination Framework but for all political forces in the country.”

Almaalomah.me

The Patriotic Union sets a condition for participating in the regional government.

Burhan Sheikh Raouf, a member of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), confirmed on Tuesday that the caretaker government in the Kurdistan Region, headed by Masrour Barzani, has not been up to par, stressing the need to formulate a government program that is completely different from the previous one.

Sheikh Raouf told Al-Maalomah News Agency, “The caretaker government has not corrected its course and has not delivered anything tangible to the citizens.” He explained that “the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) is ready for dialogue regarding the formation of the new government, but on the condition that the scenario of the current Barzani-led government is not repeated.”

He added, “The next phase requires a government that is radically different in its performance and possesses an ambitious program that meets the aspirations of the people.” He pointed out that “the PUK will not agree to the formation of a government that reproduces the failures of the caretaker government, which has not addressed the service and living conditions in the region.”

Almaalomah.me

US reinforcements for Harir base: 1,000 soldiers on their way to Erbil

A local source in Anbar province reported on Tuesday that US forces intend to reinforce their military presence in northern Iraq by deploying more than 1,000 troops to both Harir Air Base and the US Consulate in Erbil.

The source told Al-Maalomah that “initial contingents of troops have arrived by air at Harir Air Base, with additional reinforcements expected in the coming period, with the aim of securing US facilities in Erbil.” He added that these movements coincide with escalating regional tensions, amid stalled negotiations regarding the Iranian nuclear issue.
He noted that “US forces had previously reduced some of their presence at the base before sending new reinforcements, without any official confirmation so far from the US Department of Defense or Iraqi government authorities.

It is worth noting that Harir Air Base is one of the locations where international coalition forces are stationed and witnesses occasional military movements related to security developments in the region.

Almaalomah.me

State of Law: Maliki remains the “most prominent” candidte for Prime Minister

Imran Karkoush, a member of the State of Law Coalition, confirmed on Tuesday that the coalition’s leader, Nouri al-Maliki, remains the leading candidate for the premiership in the next phase. He also indicated that the coordination framework meeting scheduled for Wednesday will be “crucial” in shaping the new government.

Karkoush told the Information Agency, “Nouri al-Maliki is still the most likely candidate and the leading contender within the coordination framework to form the government,” explaining that “the atmosphere within the framework is moving towards resolving outstanding issues.”

He added that “tomorrow’s coordination framework meeting will be pivotal and decisive in determining the final steps of the political process.”

Karkoush continued, “If changes occur and al-Maliki’s candidacy is withdrawn from the prime ministerial race, the framework possesses considerable flexibility, and there are several names being considered for the position.” He emphasized that “the primary objective is to form a strong government capable of confronting the challenges.”
Political circles are awaiting the results of tomorrow’s meeting of the Coordination Framework forces, amid leaks indicating a serious desire to expedite the selection of a new prime minister to end the political deadlock.

Almaalomah.me