Trump: The operation will end if Iran agrees to the deal, otherwise there will be a larger bombing campaign.

US President Donald Trump suggested on Wednesday that Tehran would agree to the deal to open the Strait of Hormuz, warning of a “bigger bombing” if it did not.

Trump said, “If Iran agrees to what has been agreed upon, then Operation Epic Wrath will be over.”

He added that “the Strait of Hormuz will be opened to everyone, including Iran” if the agreement is approved.

He warned that “if Iran does not agree, the bombing will begin at a much higher level,” while suggesting that “Iran will most likely agree to this agreement.”

US officials said earlier on Wednesday that Washington and Tehran were close to reaching an agreement on a one-page memorandum to end the war.

According to Axios, citing US officials, “The United States expects a response from Tehran on several key points within 48 hours.”

Shafaq.com

Iraq’s oil discounts: A forced maneuver or a strategic loss?

In a market supposedly governed by cold, hard numbers, Iraq has delivered a bombshell that has turned the pricing rules upside down. Discounts exceeding $30 per barrel on Basra crude are not mere temporary reductions, but a clear indication that the oil market is no longer driven solely by supply and demand, but by risk, conflict, and influence. What is happening today is not traditional competition between producers, but a race for survival in an environment where safety margins are eroding and the definition of “fair price” is being redefined under geopolitical pressure. While prices are rising globally, Iraq has chosen to swim against the tide, a bold move that raises a crucial question: Are we witnessing a clever maneuver to seize markets, or the beginning of an economic hemorrhage that will be difficult to stem?

Under intense geopolitical pressure, Iraq, which relies on oil to finance more than 90% of its budget revenues, finds itself facing a stark dilemma: either maintain the flow of exports, even at low prices, or risk losing markets due to the soaring shipping and insurance costs associated with sensitive waterways like the Arabian Gulf. In this context, the discount of approximately $33 per barrel, equivalent to roughly 30% to 35% of an oil price hovering around $100, can be interpreted as a tool to compensate for risks that buyers are no longer willing to bear without compensation.

However, this policy, despite its tactical rationale, carries a direct economic cost. If we assume that Iraq exports approximately 3.3 million barrels per day, a discount averaging $30 translates to a loss of nearly $99 million daily, or more than $36 billion annually if this equation persists for an extended period. These figures are not theoretical; they practically represent a reduction in the state’s financial capacity to fund salaries, support services, and implement investment projects.

International experiences provide clear examples of this type of “forced pricing.” During the Western sanctions imposed on Russia after 2022, Moscow was forced to sell its oil at discounts that at times reached $25–$35 per barrel compared to Brent crude, leading to a decline in its oil revenues of nearly 20%, despite continued export volumes. Although Russia was later able to gradually rebalance its economy, this required time and a restructuring of its export networks and trade alliances.

Iraq’s situation differs in terms of infrastructure and logistical flexibility. While some countries have multiple export outlets or alternative pipelines that reduce their reliance on geographical bottlenecks, Iraq remains more vulnerable to fluctuations, limiting its room for maneuver. This makes price cuts less a strategic choice and more a reflection of pragmatic constraints. The most profound impact is seen in the general
budget.

If the budget is based on an estimated price of around $70 or $80 per barrel, actual sales at much lower levels will create a financing gap that could exceed 15% to 25% of total expected revenues, forcing the government to choose between increasing the deficit or reducing spending. In an economy where domestic activity is heavily dependent on government spending, any fiscal contraction will directly impact growth rates and employment opportunities.

Who profits from discounts? A look at market behavior reveals that
large discounts don’t go unnoticed. Refineries, particularly in Asia, and especially independent refineries in China and India, are among the biggest winners, as they obtain crude oil at prices lower than their competitors, thus boosting their profit margins. However, this doesn’t necessarily translate into a significant increase in demand. In many cases, the effect is limited to redirecting purchases towards cheaper crude rather than creating new demand.

This means that Iraq may succeed in retaining its customers, but it doesn’t necessarily guarantee expanding its market share, a crucial distinction in assessing the viability of this policy. Are discounts beneficial or detrimental?Despite all the above, this policy cannot be described as an outright loss. Losing markets or disrupting exports would have cost Iraq far more, not only in terms of revenue but also in terms of long-term loss of commercial confidence. Maintaining the flow of oil, even at a lower price, means preserving contractual relationships and supply chains, a critical element in a competitive market.

In conclusion , Iraq’s oil discounts reflect a clear economic paradox: they are simultaneously a short-term rescue tool and a long-term drain. Their success is measured not only by the volume of exports they maintain, but also by Iraq’s ability to exit them in a timely manner. The market may understand the discount as an exception, but it quickly comes to treat it as the norm if it persists, at which point restoring the true value of the oil becomes more difficult and costly.

Rawabetcenter.com

A leader in the Anbar Alliance: The Ministry of Finance is fueling the disputes between Halbousi and Samarrai.

On Tuesday, Ibrahim Ali al-Dulaimi, a leader in the United Anbar Alliance, revealed that the Ministry of Finance had ignited the intensity of the disputes between the Progress Alliance, headed by Mohammed al-Halbousi, and Azm Muthanna al-Samarrai, as each of them claims that his party has the right to manage the Ministry of Finance.

Al-Dulaimi told Al-Maalouma that “the political talks between the Progress Alliance, headed by Mohammed Al-Halbousi, and the Azm Alliance, headed by Muthanna Al-Samarrai, have deepened the differences and tensions between the two sides over the new distribution of sovereign ministries in the new government formation, after unconfirmed reports that the Ministry of Finance is allocated to the Sunni component.”

He added that “Al-Halbousi claimed that the Ministry of Finance was allocated to his party because it received a high percentage of votes, while Al-Samarrai called for a review of the position of Speaker of Parliament, as it is an entitlement for the component and not for a specific party.”

He explained that “the position of the Ministry of Finance ignited the intensity of the disputes between Al-Halbousi and Al-Samarrai after the latter threatened to withdraw from the council because he does not represent the will of the leaders of the component in the mechanism for distributing positions.”

He confirmed that “some leaders of the National Council sided with al-Samarrai and supported his demand that al-Halbousi’s party has no right to manage the Ministry of Finance file if the narrative of returning the Ministry of Finance to the Sunni component is true.”

Burathanews.com

A source reveals the Coordination Framework’s response to the Trump-Zaidi call.

A political source revealed the nature of the Coordination Framework’s response to the US President’s call. Donald Trump and the prime minister-designate Ali Al-Zaidi.
And it was reported Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper The source stated that “the forces of the Coordination Framework remained silent regarding what appeared to be a lengthy phone call between the US President and the person tasked with forming the government. “Ali Al-Zaidi She demanded that he disclose it in a private meeting.”

The source added that “Zaidi The attendees from the framework forces were clearly informed of the nature of the call Trump had made, which led the coordinating framework forces to encourage al-Zaydi to continue dealing with US The American approach during these months, in a way that does not provoke resentment and does not completely comply with American demands, is to leave it to time to resolve all the issues.”

He explained that “this measure came after the framework forces were briefed on the outlines of the American message, which was followed by the dispatch of the first shipment of US dollars, which appeared to be a reward for al-Zaidi, who, according to an uncompromising American demand, is required to form an Iraqi government free of terrorism, according to the American characterization of the Iraqi armed factions.”

Alsumaria.tv

The opening of Nasiriyah Airport in 2026 will be an important gateway for domestic and international flights.

Former member of the Parliamentary Services Committee, Baqir al-Saadi, confirmed on Tuesday that the opening of Nasiriyah International Airport will take place during the year 2026, noting that it will represent an important gateway for domestic and international aviation.

Al-Saadi told Al-Maalouma that “the project to establish Nasiriyah International Airport has reached its final stages,” noting that “within a short period we will reach the stage of the airport’s readiness and its official opening, which will allow for domestic and international flights after all requirements have been completed.”

He added that “the airport will be a qualitative addition to the map of airports at the national level, especially since it enjoys a strategic location,” indicating that “the presence of investment companies, the movement of businessmen and the desire of many to travel will contribute to activating the work of Nasiriyah Airport in a clear way.”

He indicated that “the next phase will witness a new vital airport in the south of the country, which will contribute to supporting the economic and service sectors in Dhi Qar Governorate.”

Almaalomah.me

Iraq begins implementing the TIR international transport system

The Ministry of Transport – General Company for Land Transport issued TIR Carnets on Tuesday, opening new horizons for international trade from Iraq. A statement from the Ministry , received by Al-Maalomah News Agency, indicated that “the Ministry of Transport – General Company for Land Transport, as the local guarantor of the TIR Convention in Iraq, has issued TIR Carnets to licensed companies.” The statement explained that “this significant step aims to activate Iraqi exports and enhance the smooth flow of goods across international borders in accordance with internationally recognized standards.”

It added, “The issuance of TIR Carnets represents a practical launch for implementing the multi-country transport system, enabling Iraqi companies to transport their goods from within Iraq to various countries participating in the agreement, without the need for complex customs procedures at intermediate border crossings. This contributes to reducing time and costs and increasing the efficiency of logistical operations.”

He pointed out that “the TIR card includes comprehensive identification information, including carrier data, entry and departure points, route, as well as shipment details and container number, thus ensuring the tracking and security of goods within a unified international legal framework. This has a positive impact on stimulating the national economy and enhancing the confidence of international partners in the Iraqi transport sector.”

Almaalomah.me

Coordination framework: 60 to 70% of the features of the next government have taken shape.

Member of the Coordination Framework, Uday Abdul-Hadi, confirmed on Tuesday that between 60 and 70% of the features of the next government have crystallized in recent days, indicating that the names of the ministerial cabinet will be presented next week.
Abdul-Hadi told Al-Maalouma, “The meetings and discussions held in recent days have contributed to clarifying between 60 and 70% of the features of the next government,” noting that “early understandings have helped resolve many complexities and advance the government formation process.”

He added that “next week will be decisive in terms of presenting the names of the ministerial cabinet according to the entitlements of the political blocs and currents,” predicting “the government will be formed early.”

He pointed out that “all political forces understand the nature of the challenges and the importance of having a fully empowered government to address complex issues, especially financial and economic ones.”

The Reconstruction and Development bloc determines its share in the next government.

Ali al-Fatlawi, a leader in the Reconstruction and Development Bloc, revealed on Tuesday that his bloc has finalized its allocation of five ministerial portfolios in the upcoming government, confirming that one of them is a key sovereign ministry.

Al-Fatlawi told the Information Agency that “the Reconstruction and Development Bloc will officially submit the names of its candidates for the ministerial portfolios within the next 48 hours,” indicating that “the bloc’s share is five ministries.”

He added that “one of these ministries will be a sovereign ministry, with the choices being between the Ministry of Oil and the Ministry of Finance,” revealing at the same time that “the bloc’s deputy head, MP Ahmed al-Asadi, is one of the prominent candidates to assume one of those five portfolios.”

Almaalomah.me

Asource specifies the date for the vote on the new cabinet.

A well-informed political source revealed on Tuesday that Prime Minister-designate Ali al-Zaidi intends to submit his cabinet lineup to the Speaker of Parliament by the end of this week. The source also indicated that the Coordination Framework is working to secure the Foreign Ministry portfolio.

Speaking to the Information Agency, the source stated that “al-Zaidi will spend the next two days finalizing the list of nominees for the new cabinet,” adding that “the list will be officially submitted to the Speaker of Parliament to schedule a session for voting on the ministers and the government program.”

The source further stated that “the Coordination Framework is actively seeking the Foreign Ministry,” attributing this to “the ambiguity surrounding international and regional relations, which necessitates a management approach aligned with the vision for the next phase.”

It is worth noting that Prime Minister-designate Ali al-Zaidi formed two specialized teams to prepare the government program immediately after his nomination by the Coordination Framework.

Almaalomah.me

US military: We await Trump’s orders to resume fighting against Iran

US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Dan Keane confirmed on Tuesday that the military is ready to resume combat operations against Iran and is awaiting orders from President Donald Trump, noting that Operation Freedom aims to facilitate safe passage for international commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, amid escalating tensions with Iran.

“Iran has attacked ships in the Strait of Hormuz and is using supply chains as a weapon in violation of the law of the sea,” Kane said at a press conference, adding that “the Iranian regime, led by the Revolutionary Guard, is trying to take the global economy hostage.”

He noted that “more than 22,000 sailors are stranded on more than 1,500 commercial vessels in the Arabian Sea,” adding that “our forces are ready to resume major combat operations against Iran if ordered to do so.”

He explained that “all Iranian attacks so far are below the level that would prompt us to resume large-scale combat operations,” indicating that “Iran has fired on commercial ships 9 times and attacked our forces more than 10 times since the ceasefire was declared.”

Keane predicted that “more ships will pass through the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days,” noting that “the resumption of fighting with Iran depends on a political decision.”

Shafaq.com