Trump’s pressure goes public… Maliki’s fate to be decided Friday night

On Tuesday, an official source within the Coordination Framework revealed details of the meeting of the Coordination Framework leaders, which was held last night at the home of the head of the Supreme Islamic Council, Humam Hamoudi, explaining that it witnessed the absence of both the leader of the Wisdom Movement, Ammar al-Hakim, and the Secretary-General of Asaib Ahl al-Haq, Qais al-Khazali.

The source told Shafaq News Agency that “the framework obtained a new extension of the American deadline for withdrawing al-Maliki’s nomination, and the deadline will end next Friday. This was discussed during the meeting, and al-Maliki informed them that he does not intend to withdraw his nomination at all. He told them that the two-thirds who nominated al-Maliki should withdraw his nomination, and he does not object to that. This is the closest thing to the scene in the next few days.”

He added that “the Sunni objection is no longer just from Halbousi, but there is now a Sunni political consensus from all blocs, parties and frameworks. This was officially communicated and discussed during a meeting last night.”

According to the responsible source within the coordination framework, before Friday, that is, before the end of the new and final American deadline, there will be an important and decisive meeting of the coordination framework.

The source concluded by noting that the US Special Envoy to Iraq and Syria, Tom Barrack, clearly conveyed during his meetings in both Baghdad and Erbil the firm and clear US position of rejecting al-Maliki’s nomination for Prime Minister, and outlined what decisions Washington could make if the framework insisted on proceeding with al-Maliki’s nomination.

The issue of deciding on the presidency and the Iranian-American escalation topped the agenda of the coordination framework talks on Monday evening, where the need to finalize the formation of the new government was emphasized, without mentioning the candidate for its leadership, the leader of the State of Law Coalition, Nouri al-Maliki.

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The coordination framework faces a decisive test… Who will lead the next phase?

The Iraqi political scene is experiencing a political deadlock regarding the appointment of a prime minister, due to a lack of internal consensus among political forces, coupled with what some parties describe as external interference and pressure, particularly from the United States.

This debate comes at a time of escalating concerns about the repercussions of the continued political impasse on the country’s economic and security stability, amidst clear differences in the positions of political forces regarding the mechanisms for selecting the appropriate candidate to lead the next government.

Abdullah Hamed al-Khaigani, a member of parliament from the Badr Bloc, believes that resolving the prime ministership issue hinges primarily on internal understandings among the forces within the Coordination Framework, and not on external pressures or international stances. He emphasized that the final decision must reflect the Iraqi political will, free from any external influences.

Al-Khaigani explained that the Coordination Framework represents the largest political component in the parliamentary landscape, stressing that there is no complete internal political deadlock within its ranks. However, he also pointed to political conditions set by some parties, including the exclusion of current Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani from the position should another candidate, such as Nouri al-Maliki, be agreed upon.

He also pointed to the circulation of other names within the political scene, such as Adel Abdul Mahdi, stressing that the final decision is still contingent on formulating comprehensive agreements within the Shiite political establishment first, before moving on to understandings with other political forces.

In a related context, Al-Khaigani emphasized that the controversy sparked by US President Donald Trump’s tweet has plunged the political scene into a spiral of political tension. He asserted that the selection of the prime minister must be a purely Iraqi decision, free from any external influences or political dictates, in accordance with what he described as the requirements of national sovereignty and the protection of Iraqi political decision-making from any international interference.

For his part, Aqeel Al-Rudaini, a member of the Victory Coalition, explained that the decision-making mechanisms within the coordination framework are based on the principle of complete consensus among its members, even if there are political objections to some of the proposed candidates for prime minister.

Al-Rudaini indicated that Nouri al-Maliki’s nomination came within this political context, but it did not receive widespread acceptance from all political forces. The majority of Sunni and Kurdish forces, along with some Shiite forces, expressed reservations about this nomination, reflecting the extent of the division within the Iraqi political landscape and the complexity of the consensus-building process among the various political components.

He emphasized that the Coordination Framework is not a formal constitutional institution, but it represents an influential political bloc within Parliament. He noted that some parties within the Framework are seeking a legal solution to the crisis that preserves political stability and prevents the country from entering into new governmental crises that could affect the state’s executive performance.

Al-Rudaini also called for a decisive session within the Coordination Framework to resolve the ongoing debate about the appropriate candidate, warning that the continued political deadlock could expose Iraq to serious repercussions, including the imposition of economic sanctions or even a potential military escalation in the region should political and diplomatic tensions with international powers intensify.

In the economic context, MP Saud Al-Saadi, from the Rights Bloc, warned that any potential US sanctions could directly affect the living conditions of citizens, particularly concerning government salaries and the ability to finance the state’s general budget.
Al-Saadi stressed that US control over Iraqi funds is internationally illegitimate, criticizing what he described as the approach of economic domination over Iraqi financial decision-making. He pointed out that the Iraqi economy remains almost entirely dependent on oil revenues, which makes the country vulnerable to external pressures during political and economic crises.

Al-Saadi called for diversifying the Iraqi economy and strengthening other productive sectors to bolster national decision-making independence and reduce reliance on oil resources. He argued that the current phase presents a political opportunity to enhance economic sovereignty and achieve greater financial stability, free from escalating international influences.

Observers note that the Iraqi political landscape suffers from a clear entanglement of internal and external factors, as political forces strive to strike a delicate balance between national interests and international pressures amidst regional and international competition for influence over Iraqi political decisions.

Analysts assert that the ongoing disputes within Iraq’s political factions could prolong the prime minister selection crisis, especially given the major political forces’ failure to finalize their stance on the most likely candidate. Political experts also warn that continued instability could negatively impact the investment climate and economic development, as well as weaken the government’s ability to implement its reform and service programs.

Political forecasts point to several possible scenarios. The first, and most stable, is an internal consensus, where the forces within the Coordination Framework agree with other political forces on a consensus candidate who enjoys broad national acceptance. The second scenario is a continuation of the political deadlock, which could lead to further delays in forming a government or altering the political balance within parliament. The third scenario involves escalating external pressures, which could affect Iraq’s diplomatic and economic relations and further complicate the political landscape in the coming period.

The issue of the Iraqi premiership remains one of the most complex at present, given the interplay of internal political calculations with regional and international pressures. With ongoing disagreements among political forces, attention is focused on the ability of the coordinating framework to reach an internal settlement that guarantees political stability and safeguards the interests of the Iraqi state in the face of escalating political, economic, and security challenges.

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Al-Araji: The framework will not change its candidate due to American pressure… and the decision will be made next week.

The head of the Reconstruction and Development bloc, Bahaa al-Araji, confirmed on Tuesday that the coordination framework “will not change its candidate for the next government due to an American decision,” stressing that the issue of the premiership is “a purely Iraqi matter.”

Al-Araji told Shafaq News Agency that the framework “is looking at the candidate’s acceptability within the framework and other political blocs,” indicating that the coordinating framework will hold a meeting next week “and will come up with a candidate for the position of Prime Minister, whether it is Nouri al-Maliki or another candidate,” denying the existence of “any special American message to the coordinating framework.”

He added that the selection of Mohammed Shia al-Sudani as a replacement for al-Maliki for the premiership “is due to the coordination framework,” noting that custom and tradition dictate that the Reconstruction and Development bloc is the largest bloc in parliament and the coordination framework.

The issues of deciding on the presidency, the Iranian-American escalation, and accelerating the formation of the new government topped the agenda of the coordination framework meeting held last Monday night, without mentioning the name of its candidate for prime minister, the leader of the State of Law Coalition, Nouri al-Maliki, even though the meeting was dedicated to deciding on this issue.

Prior to that, in an interview with Agence France-Presse, Maliki confirmed his commitment to running for the premiership and not withdrawing, noting that his nomination came as an agreement within the coordination framework.

According to informed sources close to the political decision-making center, Maliki realizes that his withdrawal will be interpreted as yielding to American objections, while leaders within the framework fear that withdrawing his candidacy will be understood as a response to the same pressure, making the decision costly internally for both sides.

Those sources told Shafaq News Agency that this complication has disrupted the holding of official meetings of the framework during the past days, with consultations moving to side channels and mediation attempts to persuade him to back down without burdening any party with the cost of public concessions, indicating that leaders in the framework have begun discussing gathering a majority to vote to withdraw his nomination in a meeting expected in the coming hours.

The coordinating framework, which includes ruling Shiite political forces in Iraq, is witnessing a division over the nomination of Maliki for the next government, amid American warnings of the repercussions of his selection, which prompted forces within the coalition to try to persuade him to withdraw in order to preserve the unity of the framework.

The escalating American pressure on Iraq comes as a translation of the threats of US President Donald Trump, which included criticism of the path taken by Maliki during his two consecutive terms as head of government between 2006 and 2014.

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“Iran is a sinking ship”: A report details the distancing of its allies in Iraq.

Analysts say that Tehran could become a “sinking ship” and be forced to loosen its grip on Iraqi politics, which is pushing pro-Iranian Iraqi leaders to distance themselves from it, especially given the weakness it suffers and the possibility that US President Donald Trump might resort to the option of war against it.

The Abu Dhabi-based English-language newspaper , The National , quoted Renad Mansour, a researcher at the British Chatham House think tank, as saying that some Iranian-backed officials in Iraq view Iran as a “sinking ship.” He explained that what they are witnessing is that Iraqi actors close to Iran realize that a sinking ship is not good for their power in Iraq, as stability for these groups means their economic prosperity, so they do not want to sacrifice that.

The newspaper noted in its report that the threat of American strikes comes as Iraq is trying to form a new government, pointing out that Iran usually has great influence over whoever assumes the premiership in Baghdad, but there are indications that things have changed.

The report quoted Michael Knights, a researcher at the American company Horizon Engineering, as saying that “they have to choose an elected prime minister in the midst of this and they have no idea whether the Islamic Republic will still exist by the time that person is appointed,” adding that what is happening will force “Iran’s friends to choose someone allied with the West and the Arab world.”

While the report noted Iran’s suffering since the Gaza war and the attacks against its facilities last summer by the United States and Israel, it quoted Chatham House researcher Galip Dalay as saying that the Iranian regime’s position in the region has become weak and its ambitions have declined throughout the region, explaining that “for Middle Eastern leaders, the threats have changed, and the biggest risks are now an expansionist and aggressive Israel, and the chaos of an Iranian state that is likely to collapse.”

The report quoted Dalay as saying that if the United States decides to launch strikes against Iran, Tehran’s influence may decline further, along with that of its regional proxies. He explained that the result could be that “Iranian influence, which is still strong in Iraq, may become weaker, Hezbollah in Lebanon will become weaker, and the Houthis in Yemen will also lack a patron.”

He adds that if Iran is attacked, its proxy groups could launch attacks on US military bases – although there were no such counterstrikes during last year’s war.

As for Mansour, if “the scope of the air strikes is similar to the June War, then Iraqi resistance groups supported by Iran, such as (Kataib Hezbollah), could attack US allies or bases in Iraq and the region.”

The report quoted Bente Schiller, a researcher at the Heinrich Böll Foundation, as saying that the countries hosting these military bases could also become a target, explaining that “if the regime in Tehran believes it has nothing to lose, it is likely to focus its retaliation on the American bases in the host countries,” adding that “as a result, Iran may consider these countries legitimate targets as well.” This is why regional countries are pushing for a diplomatic solution.

According to Schiller, the region fears that unrest and instability in Iran could harm its own interests, noting that Tehran has previously threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz if it is attacked, a move that would choke off a fifth of the world’s oil flows.

The report quoted Schiller as saying, “It is a weak point in terms of the economy, because war would increase the risks for this crucial point in international trade.”

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Exclusive: Washington reduces its diplomatic presence in Iraq and Gulf states amid tensions with Iran

Two Iraqi and American officials said on Thursday that the United States has reduced the number of its diplomatic staff at its missions in Iraq and some Gulf states, taking precautionary measures against the backdrop of escalating regional tensions, without disclosing details about the size or nature of the reduction.

They added in an interview with Shafaq News Agency that the reduction included staff in a number of locations, while work continued in the remaining missions according to normal operational arrangements with a reduction in some staff and non-essential activities.

Meanwhile, an official at the US Embassy declined to comment on this news to Shafaq News Agency, saying only that “the US Embassy in Baghdad and the US Consulate General in Erbil are open, and our operations are proceeding as usual.”

In response to questions about the status of the forces, an official at the US Central Command (CENTCOM), which is part of the US Department of Defense, told Shafaq News Agency that “the US military will not comment on personnel movements or troop status for reasons related to operational security and the safety of military personnel.”

The moves come after US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Wednesday, February 18, warning Britain against “giving away” the Diego Garcia base, saying the base could be needed in any military operation to deter a “potential attack” from Iran.

In parallel, several capitals escalated their warnings to their citizens against traveling to Iran and called on those already there to leave, with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk urging his citizens to leave Iran “immediately,” warning of “an imminent risk of escalation.”

The US State Department has also reiterated in recent security alerts its call for its citizens to “leave Iran now” in light of unrest and security risks.

This is happening while indirect nuclear talks continued in Geneva, mediated by Oman, without any announcement of a decisive breakthrough.

On the military front, Western reports said the US military is preparing for the possibility of operations that could last “for weeks” if Trump orders an attack, with official US expectations of an Iranian response and a shift in targeting beyond nuclear infrastructure.

In the same context, Axios quoted Israeli officials as saying that the government is preparing for the possibility of a large-scale confrontation that “could erupt within days,” while informed sources spoke of different time estimates within the US administration.

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Politico: America is pressuring NATO to end its mission in Iraq.

The Trump administration is pressuring NATO to radically recalibrate its relationships and end its mission in Iraq, according to a report published Thursday by the American newspaper Politico. Four diplomats stated that Washington’s efforts, which also include reducing peacekeeping operations in Kosovo, are now being referred to internally as “returning to the status quo.”

Thereport, translated by Al-Maalomah News Agency, quoted four NATO diplomats as saying that “the United States, under Donald Trump, is pressuring the alliance to reduce many of its external activities, including ending a major NATO mission in Iraq. The US has also exerted pressure in recent months to reduce NATO peacekeeping operations in Kosovo and to prevent Ukraine and its allies in the Indo-Pacific region from formally participating in the alliance’s annual summit in Ankara next July.”
The report added, “These efforts reflect the White House’s attempt to treat NATO as a purely Euro-Atlantic defense alliance, reversing decades of expansion in crisis management, global partnerships, and values-based initiatives that have long irked the US president and his base.”

It continued, “Under Washington’s pressure, NATO will scale back so-called ‘off-the-board activities’ that extend beyond its core defense and deterrence missions. This trend is now known internally as ‘back to square one,’ according to four diplomats, all of whom were granted anonymity to speak freely on this sensitive internal matter.”
The US request faces opposition within the alliance itself. One diplomat said, “This is not the time to withdraw from Iraq; the government wants us there.” A second diplomat said that a “majority” of allies agree on the need to reduce the Iraq mission, but over a longer period, while maintaining a smaller-scale operation.

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The US military informs Trump of its readiness to strike Iran “as soon as possible”.

Senior national security officials have informed US President Donald Trump that the US military is ready to carry out possible strikes against Iran as early as Saturday, although the timeframe for any military action could extend beyond the weekend, according to CBS News on Thursday, citing sources familiar with the consultations.

Officials confirmed that Trump has not yet made a final decision on carrying out the strike, at a time when discussions within the White House were described as ongoing and changing, with a careful assessment of the risks of escalation and the political and military repercussions, whether to act or refrain from doing so.

According to the network, the Pentagon will temporarily reposition a number of military personnel outside the Middle East region to Europe or within the United States over the next three days, in anticipation of a possible military operation or US forces being subjected to counterattacks by Iran.

One source explained that this measure falls within the usual precautionary steps before any military activity, and does not necessarily mean that an attack is imminent.

In this context, an informed source said that Foreign Minister Marco Rubio intends to visit Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in about two weeks to continue consultations on regional developments.

White House spokeswoman Caroline Leavitt said there were “many reasons and arguments that could justify a strike against Iran,” but stressed that “diplomacy is the president’s first choice.”

She added: “It would be very wise for Iran to reach an agreement with President Trump and his administration.”

The United States had already deployed the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group to the region, while the USS Gerald Ford was en route to the Middle East, and maritime tracking data showed it was off the coast of West Africa as of Wednesday.

Indirect talks between the United States and Iran, mediated by foreign powers, were held in Geneva and focused on Iran’s nuclear program. The talks lasted several hours. The US administration said some progress had been made, but Levitt emphasized that the two sides “remain very far apart on some issues.”

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The Iraqi Foreign Ministry clarifies the content of the “Washington message” if the framework adheres to Maliki.

On Thursday, the Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement clarifying what was stated in a television interview with Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein, confirming that an oral message received by Iraq from the American side in Washington included an allusion to the possibility of imposing sanctions, along with criteria related to the nature of cooperation and the formation of the next government.

The ministry stated in a statement that “in the context of the interview conducted by the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Fuad Hussein, with Al-Sharqiya channel, some interpretations and information were circulated by the media out of context, especially regarding the absence of any threat to impose sanctions on Iraq.”

She explained that “the verbal message received from the American side in Washington, in the event that the largest bloc adheres to its current candidate, included two main points,” indicating that “the first point included a clear and explicit hint at the possibility of imposing sanctions on some individuals and institutions.”

She added that “the second paragraph included a set of criteria related to the nature of cooperation and joint work with the United States of America, especially with regard to the formation of any future government and its working mechanisms.”

The ministry confirmed that “the minister’s remarks during the interview focused on the criteria mentioned in the second paragraph, and did not address the content of the first paragraph related to the hint of sanctions,” noting that this “led to confusion in some media coverage.”

On Wednesday, the US State Department confirmed in an exclusive statement to Shafaq News Agency that Washington’s position remains “firm and unwavering” regarding the nomination of Nouri al-Maliki for the Iraqi premiership, warning that his selection would force the United States to reassess its relationship with Iraq.

The “coordination framework,” which includes ruling Shiite political forces in Iraq, is witnessing a division over the nomination of Maliki for the next government, amid American warnings of the repercussions of his selection. This has prompted forces within the coalition to try to persuade him to withdraw in order to preserve the unity of the framework, while Maliki insists on his nomination and believes that reversing it should be done by an official decision from the coalition.

The escalating American pressure on Iraq comes as a translation of President Donald Trump’s explicit threats, which included criticism of the previous course taken by Maliki when he assumed the premiership for eight years.

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Kurdistan awaits the green light from Baghdad to launch the “National Bank” and pledges to grant loans.

The Ministry of Finance and Economy in the Kurdistan Region stated on Thursday that the National Bank “Nishtiman Bank,” which is planned to be launched in the region, will provide loans and financial advances to employees and citizens, after completing the official approvals from the Central Bank of Iraq.

The legal advisor to the Ministry of Finance and Economy, Hawari Kamal, said in a statement seen by Shafaq News Agency that the ministry is “awaiting final approval from the Central Bank of Iraq to grant the official license to begin operations of (Nishtman) Bank,” noting that “the bank’s building has been provided, and a delegation from the Central Bank visited it and expressed its approval of it.”

He added that “the names of the bank’s board members have been selected and sent to the Central Bank for approval, in preparation for granting the final license and officially commencing operations.”

Kamal confirmed that “Nishtman Bank will offer a range of loans and financial advances targeting employees and citizens, including loans for purchasing homes and real estate, financing the purchase of cars, in addition to supporting agricultural and industrial projects, as well as small loans,” indicating that “the size and types of these loans will be determined according to the bank’s financial capacity after it begins operations.”

The Kurdistan Regional Government announced in August 2022 that the steps to establish the National Bank had reached their final stages, and that most of the work related to this project had been completed.

The Director General of Commercial Banks in the region, Mawloud Saber, said in an interview published on the official website of the regional government at the time, that this bank seeks to regulate the government banks and commercial banks, which currently number 94 banks, and is working on reorganizing all departments in the government banks.

He added that “the capital of that bank amounts to 250 billion Iraqi dinars, and 25 billion of that amount was deposited in cash in the special account of the Central Bank of Iraq, Kurdistan Region branch, and 225 billion in commercial banks.”

The National Bank was also scheduled to be launched in the region at the beginning of 2023, but this did not happen, for reasons unknown.

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Araghchi: We have reached an understanding with America and copies of the potential agreement will be exchanged.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi announced on Tuesday that an understanding had been reached with the United States on “main principles,” and indicated that work was underway on two versions of the potential agreement document for the two sides to exchange.

Araqchi said in his first comment after the end of the second round of talks in Geneva: “We reached an understanding on the main principles with America,” adding that “there are positive developments compared to the previous round.”

He added that “the two sides will work on and exchange two versions of the potential agreement document. The two sides still have issues that need to be worked on,” noting that “this does not mean that we will reach an agreement soon, but the process has begun.”

Indirect talks between the US and Iran began Tuesday morning in Geneva, amid statements by US President Donald Trump about strengthening the military presence in the Middle East, as well as signals from the Iranian side indicating its readiness for compromises.

US envoys Steve Wittkopf and Jared Kushner participated in the negotiations, along with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, while Iranian television revealed that the latest round of nuclear negotiations lasted “approximately 3 hours”.

The previous round of talks was held on February 6 in Muscat, Oman, mediated by Oman. It represented the first meeting after a hiatus of several months in the dialogue between the two sides, which resulted from the Iranian-Israeli conflict entering its public phase in June 2015, and which the United States joined.

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