Dinar NEWS Blog – Daily

The Iraqi dinar between strong reserves and a crisis of confidence: Will the dollar’s turmoil turn into wider economic pressures?

The significance of the Central Bank of Iraq’s recent statement lies not only in its reaffirmation of the country’s sufficient foreign currency reserves, but also in its timing and what it reveals about the nature of the pressures facing the Iraqi economy. On September 19, 2026, the Central Bank confirmed its ability to meet the demand for foreign currency to finance foreign trade, settle bank card transactions, and provide dollars to travelers at the official exchange rate.

It attributed the recent rise in the dollar’s price in local markets primarily to speculation, market expectations, and the exploitation of geopolitical tensions in the region. This reassurance comes at a time when the parallel market has witnessed a significant decline in the value of the dinar, with $100 trading at levels approaching 160,000 Iraqi dinars on the unofficial market. This raises a significant economic paradox: if Iraq possesses substantial foreign currency reserves, why is the dollar rising? And why is the market concerned if the Central Bank’s ability to finance foreign trade remains intact, as the bank asserts? DinarExchange Rates

The answer begins with the necessity of distinguishing between a reserve crisis and a crisis of dollar access and market confidence. The central bank’s possession of large dollar reserves does not necessarily mean that all participants in the economy can obtain them with the same speed and at the same cost. The Iraqi exchange market effectively operates through two channels: official channels subject to banking requirements, compliance rules, and foreign trade financing regulations, and a parallel market that meets other forms of dollar demand. Therefore, the widening gap between the official and parallel exchange rates may indicate demand that is not being fully met through official channels, but it may also reflect increased precautionary and speculative demand stemming from expectations that the dollar will become more expensive in the future.

Here, expectations themselves become a powerful economic force. When households and businesses anticipate a rise in the dollar, demand for it increases. This increased demand drives the exchange rate upward, and this very rise then becomes a source of further anxiety and buying. In this way, the market can enter a cycle of fear, demand, speculation, and then more fear. From this perspective, the Central Bank’s statement should not be interpreted merely as a declaration of the size of Iraq’s financial resources, but also as an attempt to manage market expectations and prevent anxiety from morphing into collective economic behavior that would place further pressure on the dinar.

The second challenge, more directly related to the daily lives of Iraqis, is the transmission of exchange rate fluctuations to prices, inflation, and purchasing power. Iraq relies heavily on imports to meet domestic demand. Consequently, importers who cannot obtain dollars at the official rate and are forced to purchase them on the parallel market will incur higher import costs. This additional cost does not remain with the importer but is gradually passed down the supply chain, from wholesalers to retailers, and ultimately to the end consumer.

At this point, the problem becomes far more significant than simply the rising dollar exchange rate displayed on exchange bureaus’ screens. The dinar’s weakness in the parallel market can translate into higher prices for food, clothing, electronics, spare parts, raw materials, and other imported goods. If household income remains stagnant while prices rise, purchasing power erodes even without a nominal decrease in salaries. This is one of the most important channels through which exchange rate pressures are transmitted to the real economy. Rising prices force households to reduce their consumption, while reduced consumption, in turn, slows down business activity. This issue is particularly important because the central bank itself, in its statement, acknowledged the widespread concerns about rising prices and the slowdown in market activity.

But a longer-term analysis places the current situation within a broader structural problem related to the rentier nature of the Iraqi economy and its heavy reliance on both oil and the dollar. Oil accounts for roughly 90% of Iraq’s government budget revenues, according to Reuters, and a significant portion of these revenues flows through the central bank’s accounts at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. This structure gives Iraq considerable capacity to build up foreign reserves when oil exports and prices are favorable, but it also makes fiscal and monetary stability highly dependent on the continued flow of oil revenues and regular, reliable access to the international financial system.

In August 2026, Reuters reported that Iraq held over $100 billion in reserves in the United States, highlighting the Iraqi economy’s sensitivity to its financial ties with Washington. Therefore, the fundamental economic question is not simply the central bank’s ability to defend monetary stability today, but rather how long the Iraqi economy can maintain this stability if geopolitical shocks persist or if oil revenues and international financial channels come under continued pressure.

From this perspective, the current situation can be viewed through three possible paths, not as inevitable predictions, but as a framework for understanding risks. The first path is that the recent rise in the dollar is primarily due to speculation and temporary anxiety. In this case, a decrease in geopolitical tensions, continued availability of foreign currency, and a restoration of market confidence could lead to a narrowing of the gap between the official and parallel exchange rates.

The second possibility is that this gap will persist for a longer period. In this case, inflationary pressures become more significant, as businesses and traders may increasingly base their pricing on the actual cost of obtaining dollars rather than the official exchange rate. The longer this divergence continues, the greater the likelihood that the parallel market rate will become a factor in pricing decisions within the domestic economy.

The third scenario, the most economically dangerous, could unfold if persistently high demand for the dollar coincides with a prolonged decline in foreign currency inflows. In that case, the problem would no longer be primarily a crisis of expectations or speculation, but could gradually escalate into pressure on foreign reserves, fiscal policy, imports, and overall economic activity.

Therefore, foreign reserves, however large, should not become a substitute for addressing the structural imbalances plaguing the Iraqi economy. While reserves represent an important line of defense, they are not a permanent solution to the budget’s dependence on oil, the market’s reliance on imports, or the persistent gap between official and parallel channels for obtaining foreign currency. As long as reserves are used to absorb shocks without simultaneously expanding the economy’s capacity to generate alternative sources of foreign currency, economic stability will remain contingent on two factors over which Iraq has no complete control: global oil market conditions and the geopolitical environment.

Therefore, the question that should be at the heart of the Iraqi economic debate is not simply: Does the Central Bank have enough dollars today? Its recent statement confirms that it does. The more important question is: Does the Iraqi economy possess the structure to reduce its recurring need to defend the dinar using oil revenues?

Herein lies the deeper challenge. Sustainable monetary stability is not measured solely by the amount of foreign currency held by the central bank, but also depends on the economy’s ability to produce, export, attract investments, and diversify revenue sources, in addition to developing a banking sector capable of directing foreign currency efficiently and transparently towards legitimate economic activity.

Until these structural foundations are strengthened, the movement of the dollar in Iraq will remain more than just an indicator of exchange market conditions. It will continue to be a mirror reflecting the level of confidence in the economy, a measure of its ability to absorb external shocks, and a test of Iraq’s eventual capacity to transform its oil wealth from a tool used to defend short-term stability into a foundation for building a more diversified economy less vulnerable to future crises.

Economic Studies Unit / North America Office,
Link Center for Research and Strategic Studies GlobalEconomy News

Rawabetcenter.com

In detail… Al-Zaydi’s advisor reveals to Shafaq News the features and challenges of the 2027 budget

On Wednesday, the Prime Minister’s financial and economic advisor, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, revealed the most prominent features and challenges facing Iraq’s 2027 budget, stressing that its final form is not yet clear, pending the approval of the draft law by the Council of Ministers and its referral to the House of Representatives. Financialnews subscription

Saleh told Shafaq News Agency that “the full picture of Iraq’s 2027 budget is not yet clear, unless the Council of Ministers finishes discussing and approving the draft federal general budget law and refers it to the House of Representatives.”

He explained that “initial indicators alone are not sufficient to judge the trends of fiscal policy in the coming year, unless the estimates of revenues and the ceiling of spending, in its operational and investment aspects, and the priorities of programs and projects, especially investment ones, are definitively clarified, as well as the size of the planned deficit and the assumptions regarding the average price of a barrel of oil and the expected export quantities.”

Saleh added that these indicators are of exceptional importance in light of the economic and financial conditions that Iraq is going through, explaining that “any unrealistic estimate of revenues or expenditures can directly affect the size of the deficit and the need for financing, and the state’s ability to continue implementing its investment programs and fulfilling its operational obligations.”

Saleh pointed out that “the initial features indicate that the 2027 budget project was designed, to a large extent, on assumptions closer to the conditions of economic peace and stability, and that some of its indicators and constants mimic the trajectories of a fiscal base year that preceded the war and the Hormuz crisis that erupted on February 28 of this year, and the accompanying disturbances, losses and significant economic damages that Iraq suffered.”

He went on to say that the main challenge is whether a budget based on stability assumptions can accommodate an economy that is still dealing with the repercussions of war and regional unrest and their impact on trade, transport, energy, oil prices, import costs and supply chains.

Saleh pointed out that adopting assumptions closer to peace economics may be understandable from the perspective of maintaining a stable financial path, but it requires, in return, providing financial safety margins to confront unexpected developments, especially since the Iraqi economy still depends to a large extent on oil revenues.

According to Saleh, the continued uncertainty should not lead to abandoning the policy of fiscal discipline, stressing that what is required is not to increase spending simply to confront the effects of the crisis, but rather to direct public spending towards priorities with the greatest economic and developmental impact.

He noted that “the oil assumption remains one of the most important keys to understanding the 2027 budget,” explaining that the expected oil price and export volumes represent the basis upon which the budget’s ability to finance public spending is built, indicating that the widening gap between the oil assumptions on which the budget was built and the actual reality of the markets increases the pressure on public finances.

According to the government advisor, excessive optimism about oil prices or export volumes may increase the risk of deficits, while excessive conservatism may restrict the financing of necessary spending and public investment, stressing the importance of adopting realistic and conservative oil assumptions, along with developing alternative scenarios to deal with lower prices, reduced export volumes, or higher unexpected expenditures.

He stressed that “the most important aspect of the 2027 budget is the investment spending priorities,” explaining that the question is not only about the size of the investment spending, but also about the sectors and projects to which the resources will be directed and the expected economic and social return from them.

Saleh believes that the post-war and post-crisis phase requires directing resources towards sectors capable of restoring economic activity and promoting growth, while giving priority to projects that address the basic bottlenecks in energy, transportation, water, infrastructure and services, as well as projects that can contribute to stimulating the private sector and expanding the production base, noting the need to achieve a balance between investment and operational spending. Economicpolicy analysis

He warned that the continued expansion of operating expenses limits the resources available for investment, while an ill-considered reduction in operating spending could affect the ability of state institutions to provide basic services, adding that “the real challenge facing the 2027 budget lies not only in the size of the figures, but also in its ability to withstand changes.”

He explained that the initial features of the 2027 budget “will remain subject to change until the Cabinet approves it in its final form,” noting that a more accurate reading of its directions will be possible after its approval, by comparing the expected revenues with the spending ceiling, the size of the deficit, oil assumptions, the composition of operational and investment spending, and the priorities of programs and projects.

Saleh concluded by saying that the upcoming budget faces a “difficult equation” which is to maintain fiscal discipline, prevent waste, and provide funding for priority programs, while leaving financial space to address the repercussions of war and regional unrest. He explained that the success of the 2027 budget will not be measured only by the mathematical balance between revenues and expenditures, but also by its ability to manage risks, protect financial stability, and direct limited resources towards priority uses.

Earlier on Wednesday, economist Nabil Al-Marsoumi identified five major obstacles facing Iraq’s budget for next year, while also warning of a financial deficit that could exceed 60 trillion Iraqi dinars.

This statement comes as the Iraqi Ministry of Finance intends to send the draft general budget law for 2027 to the House of Representatives on October 15, according to what Jamal Kojar, a member of the parliamentary finance committee, told Shafaq News Agency on Monday.

The government’s commencement of preparing the 2027 budget comes after two years of the absence of an effective federal budget with approved schedules; as the 2025 budget schedules were not approved, nor was a budget law for 2026 approved, despite the House of Representatives approving the three-year budget law for the years 2023, 2024 and 2025.

The 2025 budget, in its updated form, could not be implemented after its schedules were not approved within the House of Representatives and the fiscal year ended, which prompted the Ministry of Finance to adopt a temporary disbursement mechanism at a rate of 1/12 based on the Financial Management Law to secure salaries and governing expenses.

The 2026 budget was also not approved due to political complexities and economic pressures resulting from regional tensions and energy market volatility, so Iraq continues to manage its spending according to the temporary spending mechanism while awaiting the new federal budget.

Shafaq.com

(Exclusive) The US State Department confirms its support for al-Zaidi’s efforts to extend sovereignty, control weapons, and prevent attacks.

The US State Department affirmed on Wednesday that the United States supports Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s efforts to extend state sovereignty and prevent attacks from being carried out inside or launched from Iraq, stressing Washington’s commitment to building a strong and mutually beneficial partnership with Baghdad. Economicnews reports

This came in response to a question from Shafaq News Agency from a spokesperson for the US State Department, regarding reports that Washington had warned Baghdad of possible measures if efforts to curb armed factions failed, and whether President Donald Trump’s administration was threatening financial and economic sanctions or restrictions on dollar transactions and transfers.

The spokesman said, “President Trump made it clear, when he hosted Prime Minister al-Zaidi for a historic visit on July 14, that the United States strongly supports his vision to ensure a brighter future for all Iraqis, free from terrorism.”

He added that this support includes “working to prevent any attacks from being launched from or within Iraqi territory, and building a strong and mutually beneficial US-Iraqi partnership.”

He continued: “We support Prime Minister al-Zaidi’s efforts to impose and exercise Iraqi sovereignty, at a time when Iraq is moving towards a new path under his leadership, and in full partnership with the United States.”

The spokesman did not address in his response the validity of reports concerning possible financial and economic sanctions or restrictions on dollar transactions, merely reiterating US support for measures to enforce sovereignty and prevent attacks.

The Foreign Ministry statement reinforces a position announced by a White House official to Shafaq News Agency, in which he affirmed the United States’ full support for disarming the factions and transferring their weapons to the federal government, stressing the importance of Baghdad’s transparency with Washington and regional partners regarding the mechanism for implementing the process.

Al-Zaydi also stressed that Iraq would not allow its territory to be turned into a base for launching threats against neighboring countries, and that placing weapons under state control does not represent a confrontation with any party, but rather a condition for building a unified state in which there are no multiple centers of power and decision-making.

The American position comes a day after MP Abu Turab al-Tamimi revealed to Shafaq News Agency al-Zaidi’s role in sparing Iraq from “almost certain” military strikes by Saudi Arabia and the United States that were scheduled for last Monday, attributing this to what he described as the “wisdom and policy” of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, without revealing further details.

The escalation stems from the targeting of facilities belonging to the Saudi “East-West” oil pipeline by drones that Riyadh and the Iraqi government said were launched from Iraqi territory, causing injuries and material damage and leading to the temporary shutdown of the pipeline.

Saudi Arabia announced that it would refrain from responding at the present time in response to Al-Zaidi’s request, while reserving the right to take the necessary measures to protect its sovereignty, security and vital facilities.

Following the attack, Al-Zaydi relieved the operations and police commanders in Maysan of their posts, transferred the directors of the security services in the province to the command and referred them for investigation, in addition to forming an urgent investigative council and tightening inspection and control procedures at the border crossings.

The Iraqi government also agreed to conduct a joint investigation with Iran regarding drone launch platforms found near the border strip, while a leader in the State of Law coalition stated that Tehran had handed over radar recordings to Baghdad that could help determine the drones’ trajectory, pending the completion of the government investigation committee’s report.

The “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” denied responsibility for the attack, announcing its readiness to cooperate with the investigation.

The escalation brought the issue of restricting weapons to the state back to the forefront before September 30, coinciding with the end of the mission of the international coalition forces in Iraq.

After the date was initially presented as a deadline for handing over weapons outside official institutions, government officials later clarified that it relates to the end of the coalition’s mission and does not represent a date for the complete disarmament of factions.

In contrast, influential armed factions refuse to consider September 30 as a binding date for them, and link the discussion of the future of their weapons to the complete and permanent withdrawal of foreign forces, while the government affirms that the end of the coalition’s mission will remove the justifications for keeping weapons and accelerate their organization under the umbrella of the state.

Shafaq.com

The Middle Oil Company reveals its plan to increase production and meet the needs of power plants and refineries.

The Middle Oil Company reveals its plan to increase production and meet the needs of power plants and refineriesThe Central Oil Company announced on Wednesday the signing of contracts to sell and pump oil through the strategic pipeline and Basra outlets. It also revealed a plan to increase production and meet the needs of stations and refineries in the coming days. The company’s Director General, Muhammad Yassin Hassan, stated in a statement to the official agency that “the Central Oil Company was producing 160,000 barrels per day before the export crisis, with production reaching about 90,000 barrels per day in 2023, and production rising to 160,000 barrels per day in 2025,” stressing that “the crisis of military escalation in the region led to a decrease in oil production.”

He added, “The company’s production is currently at 100 percent, and sometimes even more, depending on the needs of the stations and refineries,” adding, “We have an ambition to increase production according to market needs and SOMO’s sales in the coming days.”

He also pointed out that “there are signed contracts for selling oil by tanker (tankers or reservoirs), where the company will produce the oil and pump it through the strategic pipeline or through the Basra outlets, while the State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO) will sell it.”

Burathanews.com

An economist identifies 5 obstacles facing Iraq’s 2027 budget and warns of a 60 trillion dinar deficit.

Economic expert Nabil Al-Marsoumi identified five major obstacles facing Iraq’s budget for next year on Wednesday, while warning of a financial deficit that could exceed 60 trillion Iraqi dinars. Financialnews subscription

In a post on social media, Al-Marsoumi addressed those obstacles, explaining that the first of them lies in the difficulty of estimating the price of a barrel of oil and the quantities exported from it, in light of the current circumstances in the region related to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the lack of clarity regarding the time period in which these conditions will continue.

The second obstacle, according to the expert, is “the difficulty of financing the planned budget deficit, which may exceed 60 trillion dinars, in light of the large increase in internal debt and the limited possibility of obtaining large external debt.”

As for the third difficulty, it is “the Kurdistan Region’s share of the budget,” which Al-Marsoumi explained has increased, based on the latest general population census, to 14.1%, amounting to 29 trillion dinars.

Regarding the fourth difficulty, the economist confirmed that it is represented by “the file of appointments, the regularization of contracts and workers, and the financial obligations due to employees for more than a year.”

In the last point, Al-Marsoumi pointed to the “financial allocations for the Ministry of Oil, which will increase significantly due to the application of the new economic model for pricing domestic oil allocated for local consumption.”

This statement comes as the Iraqi Ministry of Finance intends to send the draft general budget law for 2027 to the House of Representatives on October 15, according to what Jamal Kojar, a member of the parliamentary finance committee, told Shafaq News Agency on Monday.

The advisor to the Iraqi Prime Minister for Financial Affairs, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, had previously revealed that the Ministry of Finance had begun preparing the draft federal general budget law for 2027, in the first new budget that Iraq has begun preparing after two years of the absence of financial approval.

The government’s commencement of preparing the 2027 budget comes after two years of the absence of an effective federal budget with approved schedules; as the 2025 budget schedules were not approved, nor was a budget law for 2026 approved, despite the House of Representatives approving the three-year budget law for the years 2023, 2024 and 2025.

The 2025 budget, in its updated form, could not be implemented after its schedules were not approved within the House of Representatives and the fiscal year ended, which prompted the Ministry of Finance to adopt a temporary disbursement mechanism at a rate of 1/12 based on the Financial Management Law to secure salaries and governing expenses.

The 2026 budget was also not approved due to political complexities and economic pressures resulting from regional tensions and energy market volatility, so Iraq continues to manage its spending according to the temporary spending mechanism while awaiting the new federal budget.

Shafaq.com

US official: There is no structure for security cooperation with Baghdad after the withdrawal

A senior US official, speaking to the British newspaper The Independent on Tuesday (September 15), denied any plans to establish “security cooperation with Baghdad” after the scheduled withdrawal date of the 30th of this month.

The Pentagon official, who declined to be identified, said that the remaining US forces in Iraq will complete their withdrawal with all their equipment, including air defenses, on September 30, and that alternative locations have been chosen for them in Jordan and the Gulf. Iraqeconomic analysis

He continued, “After the withdrawal, some negotiations may begin to normalize the security relationship between Iraq and the United States,” stressing, “But until now there is no working structure for any security cooperation between Baghdad and Washington, including counter-terrorism efforts inside Iraq.”

The American official noted that “although Iraq was not used militarily as a platform to launch direct attacks on Iran during the war, American forces were subjected to direct attacks, and withdrawing them now from Iraq will provide us with the possibility of reducing the operational risks resulting from a war with Iran,” as he described it.

The newspaper notes that the remaining US forces in Iraq number no more than a few hundred, and also confirmed that they are currently stationed entirely in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq in preparation for a complete withdrawal.

Burathanews.com

Nine ministerial portfolios await resolution… Abdul Hadi: The vote may be postponed until October

Member of the Coordination Framework, Uday Abdul-Hadi, confirmed on Tuesday that the process of voting on nine vacant ministerial portfolios in Ali al-Zidi’s government may extend into October, given the lack of a comprehensive agreement on setting a date for the decisive session in Parliament.

Abdul-Hadi explained to Al-Maalouma that “until this moment, there is no comprehensive agreement among the political forces on setting a decisive session for Parliament to vote on the candidates for the nine vacant ministerial portfolios in Ali al-Zidi’s government.”
He added that “there are indications that the decision may be made in October, especially since there is still disagreement on the candidates for some ministries, particularly security ministries, and therefore discussions and dialogues are ongoing.”

He pointed out that “the Coordination Framework, in all its aspects, supports the principle of expediting the scheduling of a session and voting on the candidates for the nine ministries in the coming period, but the matter is contingent on political agreements among the various forces.”

Abdul-Hadi noted that “the picture will become clearer in the next two weeks regarding finding a roadmap to resolve this issue.”

Almaalomah.me

Exclusive: Al-Zaidi “averted” military strikes against Iraq from Saudi Arabia and America yesterday

On Tuesday, MP Abu Turab al-Tamimi revealed the role of Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, who “spared” Iraq from almost certain military strikes that were planned for yesterday by Saudi Arabia and the United States. Dailynews subscription

Al-Tamimi told Shafaq News Agency that “the shrewdness and policy of the Commander-in-Chief is what spared Iraq from the strikes,” refusing to go into details.

Meanwhile, Abdul Rahman al-Jazaeri, a leader in the National Oath Movement, which is part of the State of Law Coalition, confirmed to Shafaq News Agency that “the information received confirms that the security committee formed by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces to investigate the truth about the launch of drones that targeted a Saudi oil pipeline is making great efforts, and is about to complete the report and hand it over to the Commander-in-Chief next week, while nothing new has happened.”

Al-Jazaeri added that “Iran informed Iraq that it had handed over the image recording of its radars deployed on the shared Iranian-Iraqi border, and this will reveal any activity or radiation of drones heading towards Saudi Arabia or elsewhere and will strengthen the report of the committee concerned with the matter.”

This comes at a time when the region is witnessing an escalation after Saudi Arabia was targeted from within Iraqi territory, and the Baghdad government took a series of measures, including the dismissal of the commander of Maysan operations, the temporary closure of the border with Iran, and the development of inspection and control mechanisms at the border crossings.

Last Saturday, Al-Zaydi also agreed to the Iranian side’s request to conduct a joint investigation into the discovery of drone launch platforms in the southeastern desert of Maysan Governorate, near the border strip between the two countries.

Shafaq.com

Al-Zaidi heads to the German capital, Berlin, after concluding his official visit to France.

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi headed to the German capital, Berlin, on Tuesday, after concluding his official visit to France.

The visit included a meeting between Al-Zaidi and French President Emmanuel Macron, and the signing of six memoranda of understanding, declarations of intent, and a cooperation protocol in the fields of defense, artificial intelligence, youth, research and innovation, development, energy, and civil aviation.

The agreements included a letter of intent between the Ministry of Defense and the artificial intelligence company “Harmattan”, a declaration of intent between the Iraqi Ministry of Defense and the French Ministry of the Armed Forces, as well as a declaration of intent to partner in promoting youth opportunities, research and innovation. Iraqeconomic analysis

It also included a declaration of intent to strengthen the partnership with the French Development Agency (AFD), a cooperation protocol on a gas supply and sales contract with Total Energies, as well as a declaration of intent to cooperate in the field of civil aviation with the French Ministry of Transport.

During the visit, Al-Zidi received the president of Total Energies, the president of Rothschild Bank, a group of presidents and representatives of French companies, as well as the president of the Arab World Institute.

He also held a meeting with a group of correspondents from French and foreign newspapers and media outlets, before leaving France for Berlin.

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi arrived in the French capital, Paris , on Sunday evening, September 13, for an official visit.

Shafaq.com

September deadline looms over Iraq… Final warning to factions: Washington will act

Two deadlines loom for Iraq at the end of September: the end of the decades-long US military presence and the disarmament of pro-Iranian factions, according to a report by the Associated Press. Dailynews subscription

According to a report by the US agency, translated by Shafaq News Agency, hundreds of remaining soldiers in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq will leave by the deadline set for September 30, citing US officials.

The report explained that the Iraqi government “linked the American withdrawal to an ultimatum to the armed factions to lay down their weapons,” but most of these factions indicated that they do not intend to do so, and this leaves big questions about what Iraq will look like the day after.

As the war between the United States and Iran intensifies, the report ruled out the possibility that Tehran would relinquish the leverage it holds in neighboring Iraq.

According to the report, US officials are concerned about the ability of Iraqi factions to launch attacks against other targets in the region, including Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel, as well as the presence of Houthi forces in Iraq, according to the official.

No disarmament

Iraqi government officials have differing views on whether September 30 represents a binding deadline for disarming the factions, or merely a date to begin negotiations.

“There will be no disarmament of any group by September 30,” Iraqi analyst Sajjad Jiyad said during a session held by the Atlantic Council last week, adding, “I think this is probably obvious to anyone who follows Iraqi politics.”

While a handful of less influential factions agreed to hand over their weapons, the most powerful and closest groups to Iran – Kataib Hezbollah, Harakat al-Nujaba, and Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada – rejected the idea of ​​disarmament or set conditions for giving it up that the government realizes it will not be able to meet in the near future.

These conditions include placing the Kurdish Peshmerga forces in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq under the control of the government, and expelling the Iranian Kurdish opposition groups and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which have bases in the region.

As reported by the Associated Press, an official from one of the Iranian-backed Iraqi factions said: “After these standards are set, the discussions will focus on regulating weapons, not handing them over,” adding: “There is absolutely no decision among the factions to hand over weapons, and we have not handed over any weapons.”

Meanwhile, a government official stated that the government’s strategy is currently focused on placing armed factions under the control of the Iraqi army.

Many factions are already part of the Popular Mobilization Forces, an alliance of armed groups that have officially become part of the Iraqi armed forces, although the factions within it often act independently, according to the US report.

The official explained that the government wants the armed factions to hand over “effective weapons,” including missiles and long-range aircraft, to the central command of the Popular Mobilization Forces, and for the factions to be dissolved individually and placed under the command of the Popular Mobilization Forces and the Iraqi army.

The day after September 30

While the withdrawal of US forces would remove one target from the Kurdistan Region, it may not stop the attacks.

Mohammed A. Saleh, a nonresident senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and an expert on Kurdish and Iraqi affairs, noted that Iran and its affiliated groups “targeted other locations in the Kurdistan Region that have no connection to the presence of US forces.” Iraqeconomic analysis

These sites include the bases of Iranian Kurdish opposition groups in exile, oil and energy facilities, and even the office of Kurdistan Regional Government Prime Minister Masrour Barzani.

Saleh said that “withdrawal will make the Kurdistan Region more exposed and an easier target.”

Regional government officials declined to comment, but Barzani has publicly expressed concern that removing the US air defense systems would make the region more vulnerable.

Shafaq.com