Oil price decline threatens Iraq’s credit rating

Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings placed Iraq’s sovereign credit rating at “B-” on negative watch, warning of a possible downgrade due to the repercussions of regional tensions and declining oil production.

The agency stated, according to a report published by Reuters on Wednesday, that the decision came after a sharp decline in Iraqi oil production to about 1.2 million barrels per day, compared to 4.2 million barrels per day, as a result of the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February.

The Iraqi economy is heavily dependent on oil, which accounts for about 60% of GDP, 90% of state revenues, and 95% of export earnings, making any disruption in production or exports a direct impact on the financial situation.

The agency noted that the continued decline could put pressure on public finances and external accounts until 2026, despite Iraq having foreign reserves estimated at about $97 billion, covering about 10 months of external payments, with gold constituting about a quarter of them.

It predicted that the government would have to use these reserves to meet its external debt obligations, including outstanding international bonds worth $2.8 billion.

Standard & Poor’s (S&P Global): An American company specializing in credit ratings and financial analysis, it assesses the creditworthiness of countries and companies. It is one of the most prominent rating agencies globally, and its reports affect the cost of borrowing and investor confidence in the markets.

Shafaq.com

Israeli Defense Minister announces assassination of Iranian intelligence chief

Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz announced on Wednesday the assassination of Iranian Intelligence Minister Ismail Khatib, at a time when Tel Aviv spoke of expanding the scope of its operations and raising the level of escalation on the Iranian and Lebanese fronts.

Katz said during a briefing to security officials, according to Hebrew media, that “Israel assassinated the Iranian intelligence minister,” hours after Israeli media reports indicated that an assassination attempt was carried out in Tehran last night, with the results of the operation pending before confirmation.

Katz hinted at raising the level of the war that Israel is waging against Iran and Hezbollah, speaking of “surprises” on various fronts, without clarifying the nature of the escalation, whether through expanding military operations, intensifying assassinations, or a ground incursion.

He added that “Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has given the army the freedom to carry out assassinations against Iranian leaders without the need for prior approval from the political leadership,” in a new procedure that contradicts the mechanisms previously followed.

Israeli media outlets, including Channel 15, reported that Khatib was the target of an airstrike that targeted the Iranian capital, Tehran, on Tuesday night, noting that his fate remained unclear.

Khatib is the top official in charge of Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence, one of the country’s most prominent security agencies. The US Treasury imposed sanctions on him in 2022, accusing him of overseeing cyber activities and operations targeting dissidents and foreign facilities.

Shafaq.com

Sadiqun holds the coordination framework responsible for the delay in forming the government: The Sudanese are the most likely to succeed.

On Wednesday, MP Mohammed Al-Baldawi, from the Sadiqun parliamentary bloc, held the coordination framework responsible for the delay in forming the new government, while indicating that outgoing Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani is currently the most likely candidate.

Al-Baldawi told Shafaq News Agency that “linking the formation of the new Iraqi government to the end of the regional war is incorrect,” stressing the need to “form the government under these circumstances, which require a sincere national government capable of preserving the security and sovereignty of Iraq.”

He added that “the delay in forming the government is not in anyone’s interest, nor is it in the interest of the Iraqi political forces,” indicating that “Iraq needs a unified and sincere position, and the coordinating framework bears responsibility for the delay in its formation.”

According to Al-Baldawi, the obstacles have been overcome, and all that remains is to elect the president and assign the candidate of the Coordination Framework to form the next government, noting that there are objections to the head of the State of Law Coalition, Nouri al-Maliki.

He continued, saying that “there are a number of candidates, and the criteria must be applied to them,” adding that “the Sudanese candidate is the most likely to win at the moment.”

It is worth noting that a source within the coordinating framework that brings together the ruling Shiite political forces in Iraq told Shafaq News Agency last Monday that the coalition leadership agreed to postpone deciding on a prime ministerial candidate until after the end of the ongoing regional war between the United States and Israel against Iran.

The Coordination Framework had officially nominated Maliki on January 24, a move that opened the door to negotiations to form the new government, but the process faltered as disagreements continued over the election of the President of the Republic, the constitutional entitlement that precedes assigning the candidate of the largest bloc to form the government.

However, al-Maliki’s nomination was met with rejection from some Sunni forces, as well as parties within the Shiite bloc itself, in addition to strong rejection from the American administration, whose president, Donald Trump, threatened at the time that Washington would stop its aid to Iraq if al-Maliki assumed the premiership.

Shafaq.com

Trump: What if we ended the Iranian regime and left Hormuz to others?

On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump raised questions about the future of the regime in Iran, hinting at the possibility of ending it and leaving the responsibility for managing the Strait of Hormuz to the countries that benefit from it.

Trump said in a statement broadcast a short while ago: “I wonder what would happen if we eliminated what remains of the regime in Iran and left the responsibility for the Strait of Hormuz to the countries that use it.”

He added that this proposal “would quickly move some of our unresponsive allies.”

Trump had stated that the United States had “completely defeated Iran” militarily and economically, adding that many countries, especially those affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, should take responsibility for securing it.

Shafaq.com

The Ceyhan oil pipeline is revived… Baghdad and Erbil overcome the “oil impasse” with a political settlement under the pressure of crises.

The recent agreement between Baghdad and Erbil to resume oil exports through the Ceyhan port constitutes a political settlement imposed by complex internal and regional circumstances, and does not represent a final solution to the outstanding disputes and issues between the two sides.

In this regard, Kirkuk Provincial Council member Ahmed Fateh Mustafa stressed that the recent agreement between Baghdad and Erbil to resume oil exports through the Ceyhan port cannot be considered merely a technical agreement, but rather represents a political settlement imposed by complex internal and regional circumstances.

Mustafa said in a statement received by Shafaq News Agency that “the agreement, despite its importance, does not constitute a radical solution to the existing disputes regarding the management of oil wealth, but rather is an attempt to contain the crisis, while the fundamental issues related to powers and the distribution of revenues continue without a final resolution.”

He added that “Baghdad strengthened its position by establishing the principle of centralized revenues, while Erbil demonstrated a degree of realism and responsibility by accepting the agreement, in order to preserve economic stability and enhance national partnership,” noting that “the regional factor, especially the Turkish role, contributed to advancing this path.”

The provincial council member added that “from an economic standpoint, the agreement provides additional revenues for Iraq and reactivates the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, but it remains a limited and unsustainable solution unless the legal and technical issues between the federal government and the Kurdistan Region are resolved definitively.”

Mustafa stressed that “the Kirkuk Provincial Council must pay great attention to the oil file, given its direct connection to the stability of the province and the rights of its people, and its impact on the level of services, job opportunities and social balance.”

He concluded by saying, “The agreement represents an important step, but it is temporary, and its sustainability will remain contingent on the enactment of comprehensive national legislation that definitively regulates the oil and gas sector.”

In the same context, the North Oil Company announced the start of the process of exporting Iraqi oil from Kirkuk Governorate to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, confirming that the initial production will reach 250,000 barrels per day.

The company stated in a statement received by Shafaq News Agency that “Kirkuk fields have recorded a strong return to the forefront of production and export, with the resumption of crude oil pumping operations through the Turkish port of Ceyhan, after a period of cessation that posed a major challenge to the oil sector.”

She added that “this important development is the result of the agreement concluded between the federal government and the Kurdistan Regional Government, which contributed to reactivating one of the most prominent strategic export outlets and enhancing the flexibility of the Iraqi oil export system.”

The company indicated that it had begun operating the Saralo pumping station, “signaling the resumption of pumping and exporting Kirkuk oil to the Ceyhan port, with an initial export capacity of (250,000) barrels per day.”

According to the statement, “This return does not just represent a resumption of export operations, but embodies a technical and administrative success that reflects the scale of the field and engineering efforts made by national cadres to ensure the readiness of the infrastructure and the continuity of operations with high efficiency.”

He explained that “this strategic step confirms the pivotal role of the Kirkuk oil fields in supporting the national economy and enhancing the stability of the oil market.”

The Kurdistan Regional Government announced on Tuesday evening that it had reached an agreement with the federal government to export oil from the Kirkuk and regional oil fields together via the Kurdistan Region-Ceyhan pipeline, starting today, to global markets.

The Ministry of Natural Resources in the regional government had previously confirmed that there were multiple reasons behind the halt in exports, in response to accusations by the Federal Ministry of Oil regarding obstructing the process.

In contrast, the Iraqi Oil Ministry called for a swift resumption of exports to reduce financial losses, noting that it had proposed exporting about 300,000 barrels per day via pipeline, in addition to oil from the region’s fields.

This comes at a time when Iraqi oil exports have declined in the past period, amid escalating regional tensions, which has increased the importance of reactivating the northern export lines to enhance stability in the oil market.

Shafaq.com

Statistics show that Iraq’s oil exports to America exceeded 90 million barrels in 2025.

US data showed that Iraq’s exports of crude oil and petroleum products to the United States exceeded 90 million barrels during the past year, 2025, with a notable annual decline.

Shafaq News Agency followed up on tables and charts published by the US Energy Information Administration, which showed that Iraq exported about 90 million and 779 thousand barrels in 2025, a decrease of 4 million and 593 thousand barrels compared to 2024, or about 4.8%, after it had recorded 95 million and 372 thousand barrels in the previous year.

According to the data, exports in 2025 remain significantly lower than the highest level recorded during the past decade in 2018, when they reached about 220 million and 499 thousand barrels, representing a decline of about 129 million and 720 thousand barrels, or approximately 58.8%.

She noted that August saw the highest level of exports at 10 million and 234 thousand barrels, while February had the lowest at 5 million and 427 thousand barrels.

Shafaq.com

Ministry of Oil: Resumption of pumping and exporting Kirkuk oil via the Ceyhan port at a capacity of (250) thousand barrels

The Ministry of Oil announced on Wednesday the resumption of pumping and exporting Kirkuk oil through the Ceyhan port at a rate of (250) thousand barrels. The ministry stated in a statement that “in implementation of the directives of the Prime Minister and the Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Affairs and Minister of Oil, and with the follow-up of the Undersecretary of the Ministry for Extraction Affairs, and with direct implementation by the Director General of the North Oil Company, and in the presence of the representative of the Ministry of Natural Resources in the Kurdistan Region, the pumping of crude oil through the Turkish port of Ceyhan has been resumed, after a period of stoppage that posed a major challenge to the oil sector.”

She added that “this came as a result of the agreement concluded between the federal government and the Kurdistan Regional Government, which contributed to reactivating one of the most prominent strategic export outlets and enhancing the flexibility of the Iraqi oil export system.”

She also noted that “the North Oil Company has begun operating the (Saralo) pumping station, signaling the resumption of pumping and exporting Kirkuk oil to the Ceyhan port, with an initial export capacity of (250) thousand barrels per day, in a step that reflects the integration of efforts between the concerned parties to achieve common national goals.”

She explained that “the process of resuming exports embodies a technical and administrative success that reflects the extent of the field and engineering efforts made by national staff to ensure the readiness of infrastructure and the continuity of operations with high efficiency.”

The ministry also affirmed, according to the statement, that “this strategic step represents the pivotal role of the Kirkuk fields in supporting the national economy, proving once again that challenges, no matter how great, cannot stand in the way of the determination and perseverance of the workers in this vital sector, who continue to work as one team to achieve accomplishments and serve Iraq.”

Burathanews.com

MP: The Strait of Hormuz is Iraq’s only lifeline, and halting exports would be an economic “catastrophe”.

MP Duha al-Bahadli warned on Tuesday of the dangers of Iraq’s complete reliance on a single sea outlet for its oil exports, stressing that any conflict in the region would make the Iraqi economy the most affected due to the disruption of trade through the Strait of Hormuz.

Al-Bahadli told the Information Agency that “oil exports via the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline cover only 10% of total Iraqi oil exports,” explaining that the vast majority of exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

She added that “Iraq is among the countries most affected by the outbreak of any wars in the region due to its complete dependence on oil revenues,” noting that “Iraq’s possession of a single sea outlet overlooking the strait represents a real catastrophe in the event of any military escalation.”

Al-Bahadli pointed out that “any conflict that leads to the disruption of trade in the region will put Iraq in a serious economic predicament,” emphasizing “the necessity of finding real alternatives and multiple export outlets to avoid severe financial shocks.”

Almaalomah.me

New rocket attacks target the US embassy in Baghdad

A security source reported early Tuesday that new rocket attacks targeted the US embassy in Baghdad, and that air defense systems were activated to counter the attack inside the Green Zone.

The source told Shafaq News Agency that sirens and the sound of interceptions were heard in the vicinity of the embassy, ​​after rockets were launched towards the diplomatic compound, without any immediate information on the extent of the damage or whether the attacks resulted in injuries.

This development comes minutes after a series of attacks targeting the embassy via four drones, and hours after a drone attack that crashed into the upper fence of the Al-Rasheed Hotel inside the Green Zone without causing any injuries or material damage.

Following those attacks, the spokesman for the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Sabah al-Nu’man, described what happened as “terrorist attacks” that targeted the Majnoon oil field, the Rashid International Hotel, and the US Embassy headquarters in Baghdad, stressing that Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani had directed the security and intelligence services to track down and pursue the perpetrators.

Shafaq.com

Iraqi oil exports have fallen by 70% due to the war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iraqi oil exports saw a significant decline during the past week, amid escalating regional tensions, the ongoing US-Iranian war, and the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has broadly affected oil flows from the Middle East region.

According to data from Kpler, Iraq’s average exports of crude oil, condensates and refined fuels averaged around 0.78 million barrels per day, a decrease of nearly 70% compared to February, as a result of the halt of most maritime shipments and difficulties in transporting goods through ports.

The company’s data showed that oil exports from eight major Middle Eastern countries (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates) fell significantly, with average exports to these countries reaching 9.71 million barrels per day, a decrease of 61% compared to 25.13 million barrels per day in February.

Iraq recorded a decrease of about 70%, the UAE more than 50%, and Saudi Arabia 20%, while exports from Iran, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain declined at varying, lower rates, with some limited flows continuing through the Red Sea and other ports.

The actual closure of the Strait of Hormuz would cause a major disruption to global supplies, as this sea lane is used to transport about one-fifth of the world’s oil.

Floating crude oil stocks in the region have risen to more than 50 million barrels, compared to about 10 million barrels before the outbreak of the war.

It is estimated that oil flows are currently limited through the Saudi Red Sea and the ports of Oman, the UAE and Iran, while analysts expect the impact of regional tension on global oil prices to continue in the coming period, with the possibility of some types of fuel reaching record levels.

Shafaq.com