Dinar Observer Daily

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   [via Baxter]    …the Article 4 consultation report… is to be released yet this Month...and that should tell us more about where Iraq is at this point.

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Sandyf – Dinar Guru   …If we are to gain from this venture then it is not going to come from anything Iraq does.    How can people talk about Dinar and Dong in the same breath and then think the answer lies with 3 zeros. Hopefully by the time Iraq ever gets around to deleting the zeros, all thoughts of Iraq will be well and truly in the rear view mirror.

Don961 – Dinar Guru   Article:  “Paying with plastic? Iraqis weigh pros and cons” Quote:  “In Iraq’s cash-driven economy, the Communications Ministry and head of the Central of Bank are getting input on a mechanism that would allow banks and shops to further facilitate the use of debit and credit cards.”   …this is where the rubber (er…currency) hits the road…in the marketplace… cool article…dump the rippy old notes with all those zeroes… replace them with new polymer ones that don’t deteriorate as quickly…and give them a value so small change can be made without an issue… give ’em sum coins for the Fil jar to save for a rainy day …

Sandyf – Dinar Guru  …Govt does not Drop the zeros…CBI does…Central banks have a limited role in the management of a currency. Changes to the monetary unit or major changes to the currency require government approval.  Deletion of the 3 zeros in Iraq will affect the monetary unit and as such will require a Bill to pass through parliament, not going to happen any time soon.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   [77% of the world’s transaction revenue touches an SAP system! They are HUGE!  They…wouldn’t set up shop in Iraq for fun! …They have seen the potential & want to get in on the ground floor!]   Yes!  It’s a big deal they are now in Iraq.

Delta – Dinar Guru   [What if the central bank stopped selling the dollar?]  Article quote: “It may be necessary to resort to other mechanisms that are quite different from what is currently being used.”  WHAT’S NEXT?  …DETERMINE THE PRICE GLOBALLY…

DELTA – Dinar Guru    Article quote:  “The file of the “auction of hard currency” in Iraq to the forefront after the comments of deputies in parliament, demanding the Prime Minister and the Supreme Judicial Council and the public prosecution in the country, put an end to the massive corruption carried out through the auction of hard currency organized by the Central Bank of Iraq every day.”  MASSACRE OF THE DOLLAR IN IRAQ…OFFICIAL MOVEMENT AGAINST FRAUD AT THE CBI AUCTION.

Chattels – Dinar Guru   Article:  “Oil and gas laws: a crux of Erbil-Baghdad tension By Omar Moradi”   Quote:  “The lack of oil and gas federal legislation has been the root cause of problems between Erbil and Baghdad since the Iraqi constitution was approved in 2005. Now there is a government in Baghdad that has shown its desire to resolve these problems through dialogue, and the success of the new Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) cabinet depends on whether the oil and gas issue is resolved with Baghdad”  IMO, the federal legislation contemplated by the foregoing article is “THE HCL”.    If the HCL law is a condition precedent or attendant to our liquidity event, then we are not there yet.

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   There will never be an absolute perfect set of circumstances under which Iraq “can” or “should” or “must” change the value of their currency.  I see a fair amount of comments from people stating something like “Oh, Iraq will never RV unless X happens, or until Y is implemented“, etc etc… that is simply not true.    There is NO absolute “must” for Iraq.  They can change the rate today. Or yesterday, or tomorrow. They can do it without any further progress, without any permission from anyone or anything, and all the speculation in the world won’t give us an exact date or a precise set of circumstances. The situation we find ourselves in today, at this very moment, is “good enough”.  Personally, I’m on standby for an incredible event.  A solid resolution on the oil and gas law (HCL) will mean “no turning back”, but just the same – it’s not a necessity.  Pretty darn exciting, if you ask me.  [post 2 of 2]

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   Article:  “Oil and gas laws: a crux of Erbil-Baghdad tension”  Back in the forefront of ReValuation (RV) news…HCL. We’ve made it through Ramadan, budgeting, elections, and a whole slew of other issues. All of them, although lengthy at times, have sailed successfully through the turbulent waters and left us with a final component:  HCL. It’s actually on the horizon. It’s being talked about, and I’m predicting we’ll see more of this very shortly.     Adding fuel to the HCL fire: “Iraqi oil minister: OPEC agreement + will reduce stocks and achieve price stability”   WTI just crossed $60 again, and those of us watching the OIL tickers recently are well aware of how stable OIL is right now.  Those of us pairing that information with the current and ongoing situation in Iraq understand how important OIL is to Iraq’s ability to RV.   And in case anyone needed some reassurance…it’s going as perfect as we could hope for.    [post 1 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Article:  “WHY IS THE CURRENCY AUCTION IS OUTSIDE THE CONTROL OF THE CENTRAL BANK?”    …another article talking about the corruption with the currency auctions. This is all very good. We are going to see these auctions end and the “project to delete the zeros”. This is coming and coming sooner than later. The pressure by Sadr is enormous on parliament and the finance committee to work with the CBI.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   …Dr. Ali Mohsen Al-Alaq, the governor of the Central Bank of Iraq today…does not have the experience needed to run such a system as the Central Bank of Iraq. The system is very political even though it is supposed to be independent. …So Alaq’s head is on the chopping block too and his days are numbered…The committee has selected the new CBI director/governor candidate already. He must first get ratified by parliament to get into the “permanent” position. Dr Shabibi and the World Bank is back in Iraq and working closely with this situation so we know they are VERY. VERY serious about moving ahead on the project to delete the zeros…

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru    …my advice is relax. Let Sadr run his magic. He is on our side and wants the reinstatement just as bad if not more than us. He is working for reforms within Iraq. Remember his party/coalition won the election in 2018 and he ran on anti-corruption and reform agenda. He seated Mahdi and so the new PM must do what the coalition stands for – REFORMS.  [post 2 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   …why would parliament form a separate finance committee…just to look into the matter of corruption in the CBI and currency auctions and as to why the Financial Management law is not being administered and implemented.  It has been passed for weeks now. Why would they do this if the RV was already scheduled to go?  Another reason why no RV was going to happen – The Department of Economic Studies… held a scientific symposium entitled “Change in the value of the Iraqi currency, benefits and costs”…held on 7/4/2019… Why would they do this if the RV was already scheduled to go?  [post 1 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Many of you still ask me about 800#s…You ask if all of this is really going to happen? I have said it before and I am saying it again. There are already 800#s published. The banks already have currency exchange centers within the banks and you can call their numbers anytime you want. There are no other special numbers planned. Get it? How many times must I talk about this? Why would you call anyhow with the rate is still too low?

Chattels – Dinar Guru  Article:  “Distribution of the instruments of Article 140 on Kurdish families” The allocation /distribution of funds to Kurds under article 140 is part of the first phase in the process. There remains at least the requirements of a census and referendum.  Article 140 involves three stages. The first, normalization, has a compensatory payment factor to it.  The next two are a census and a referendum to determine inclusion in the KRG.  There are reports of a census in 2020, but there is an argument over whether it is/ can be used as the article 140 census.  It is possible that the recent news was about funding for the census.

Sandyf – Dinar Guru   People should note that Iraq was effectively removed from UN Chapter 7 in 2013 when the Kuwait missing persons issue was transferred to Chapter 6.  Quote:  “the United Nations Security Council decided on 29 June to address the remaining question of missing Kuwaiti persons and property under Chapter VI, i.e. by peaceful means.  Iraq’s only remaining Chapter VII obligation is the payment to Kuwait of 8.5 billion euros, which is to be completed in 2015 if Iraq maintains the current pace of reimbursements. The UNSC decision therefore closes, both literally and figuratively, a painful chapter in Iraq’s history” There are still Chapter 7 sanctions in place against Iraqi individuals and entities but that has no bearing on Iraq as a country.

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   As at this stage…I don’t think we have ever been in such a good place as we see now from what they CBI is telling us.  They clearly state the positive effects of the reduction in the Iraqi Dinar is to be good for the global economy. They are telling us imo they have to raise the rate and in fact they go so far to state they made the decision to do so already.  By doing a reduction in Iraqi Dinar (raising the value) they have to stop the auctions as we know them. That is flat out pressure, if not mainly saying get ready we have to now raise the rate internationally, as we decided to reduce the auctions to once a week by reducing the Iraqi Dinar. The CBI is talking powerfully with what they are saying…imo. [post 2 of 2]

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   Article quotes:   “…the reduction of the Iraqi dinar and its impact on the Iraqi economy, some describe this reduction as support for the global economy…”;  “…there were comments from the audience and views and proposals on the decision to reduce the Iraqi dinar…”   there is far more that I am excited about and for very good reason…imo. Here are a few of them [quotes] that clearly suggest they are raising the value of the IQD and not next year. They would implode from inflation. They are quitting the auctions thus, they have to raise the rate and pronto. Very clear and concise..imo. [post 1 of 2]

Chattels – Dinar Guru  “The improvement in relations between the KRG and the federal government in Baghdad has created good conditions for foreign companies to invest “, Lutes said…”  “We know that Iraq and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq are at a pivotal moment. We think it is an opportune time for American companies to be looking to come in to invest and do business…”  I used to say that as Kurdistan goes, so goes our investment. What I meant and mean is that Baghdad – Erbil relations are key to socio-economic stability and a functional government, IMO. Does the foregoing article mean that we have arrived at such a point? No. but hope springs eternal.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru  Article:   “AMENDMENT OF THE BUDGET INCLUDES TAKING A PLEDGE FROM PRIME MINISTER ADEL ABDUL MAHDI TO RESOLVE THE POSITIONS OF PROXY BY OCT 1st.”   …look at his deadline date – Oct 1st.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Article:  “CBI ENCOURAGES BANKS IRAQ TO DEPLOY ELECTRONIC PAYMENT TOOLS REPRESENTED BY ATM AND POS”  Note this article DOES NOT say that the lower denominations (1, 5,10,25,100,.25, .50, etc..) are now available in the ATMs.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru    Article quote:  “…the delegation of the Security Council, which visited Baghdad yesterday DID NOT DISCUSS THE ISSUE OF LIFTING IRAQ FROM CHAPTER VII.”  …this is BIG…We just learned that Iraq is not “fully” out of Chapter VII.  It is the provisions to repay Kuwait. But didn’t Kuwait accept a deal to repay with gas sent from Iraq? Isn’t Iraq even building a pipeline to do so?  So we see all of this must be recognized still by the UN security council and they voted on to lift “all” of Chapter VII sanctions. So yes, this could be part of the holdup in letting the reinstatement go. But why are they bringing this up now?  They are bringing this up now because the Sadr movement want to move ahead and do the reinstatement and get the CBI to complete the project to delete the zeros. Not wait any longer…  But there are pieces to this that still must be clean up.

…A portion of the letter that John Adams wrote to his wife, Abigail, regarding Independence Day, on this date, 243 years ago.

“I am apt to believe that it will be celebrated, by succeeding Generations, as the great anniversary Festival. It ought to be commemorated, as the Day of Deliverance by solemn Acts of Devotion to God Almighty. It ought to be solemnized with Pomp and Parade, with Shews, Games, Sports, Guns, Bells, Bonfires and Illuminations from one End of this Continent to the other from this Time forward forever more.”

(Thanks Daniel)

Sandyf – Dinar Guru    The IQD is an Article 14 currency, so where does out of Article 8 come into it. Iraq needs to move to Article 8 for the IQD to gain guaranteed redemption and become internationally recognized.  This move would make the currency Partially Convertible, a currency has to be heavily involved in international trade for many years to be recognized as Fully Convertible.  Article 14 currencies change value all the time but they are not traded on the lower forex markets only the higher corporate levels. Companies that do handle Article 14 currencies do so at their own risk.

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   I hope you understand how huge this is for Iraq. They are one of the founding members of OPEC. The 2nd largest producer in the group. Iraq is agreeing to support these cuts.  But they did not agree to join the group in their cuts.  This gives Iraq carte blanche – complete freedom – to increase their production on a moment’s notice, revalue their currency, and corner the market while they rake in cash to cover their “expenses”. They may be operating on an increased production as we speak, stocking up hidden stores of oil in preparation for a huge push to bring in a massive amount of capital to cover the RV. There is more than one way to skin a cat, as they say, and that’s just one aspect.   The above is certainly an oversimplification of the big picture, but the fact remains – Iraq is nodding in agreement with the cuts, but they have never committed to it.  NOT.  ONE.  TIME.   [post 3 of 3]

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru    Iraq is noted as the second largest producer… wait, what? We’re talking about BLACK GOLD here, one of the most valuable commodities on the planet. And Iraq is #2… yet the currency they use is currently over 1000X weaker than the US dollar.  Collectively, OPEC nations have over 80% of the world’s known oil reserves… yet Iraq, the 2nd largest producer in that group, has a currency that would require 2000 pieces of it to buy a loaf of bread at your corner store.  OPEC as a group agreed to keep oil production low, to stimulate oil prices. The majority of the members placed their name on the list of participants in this endeavor when it was originally voted on.  The majority of the members did that… Iraq specifically did NOT.   [post 2 of 3]

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   Interesting times right now. GOI members are playing very nicely… The G20 didn’t produce any immediately exciting news that I’ve ran across, but it didn’t bring us anything bad either. Back in the news, and worth a review, is the current OPEC agreement. Article:  “OPEC deal important for oil market stability: Iraqi PM”   Important notes in that article: 1. Iraq is the 2nd largest oil producer in OPEC. (Does it make sense that it’s currency is valued so low?) 2.  The production limitation agreement has been extended for 9 months – to boost the price of oil, rather than overproduce and drive the prices down.  The amount of time the agreement has been extended isn’t as important as the mere fact that it IS extended.  Oil is hovering just under that $60 mark, and the stability is a great thing. Stable oil prices = comfortable accountants = solid footing to RV. (Yes, the accountants have a say!)  [post 1 of 3]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   The PM still needs to get the education minister ratified by the parliament and this is still scheduled for this week to be completed, maybe a vote today.