Dinar Observer Daily

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru  …The most important concept to understand today is this: The CBI makes money on every auction, and they will continue to do so forever. When the Dinar changes value, the CBI buys it at a lower rate, and then sells it at a higher rate. The CBI will ALWAYS choose the path that makes them the most money.  I agree that a lower rate than Kuwait will be a blow to the ego’s of the Iraqis. I agree that it should be on par with the USD, or even higher. I agree that the rate WILL get there… eventually.    [post 1 of 2]

Dinar Investor – Jeff    …the last few months I’ve been putting a huge emphasis on saying Iraq has to have stability before the rate can change.  They’re telling you that.  If you look at the amount of articles coming out between Erbil which is Kurdistan and Baghdad there’s a lot…this is very serious…Iraq has to have stability, meaning they have to be able to work together before that rate can change, before they can go international…they just need a little more time.  They’re using the word “complete” which means ending or completion, towards a comprehensive agreement.  So they’re suggesting to us that they’re close to having an agreement reached…

Pimpy – Dinar Guru  …the articles that I’m seeing are showing me that there’s a lot of preparation getting done before Al-Kazemi’s visit over here into the United States…we see the World Bank is there…they’re most likely going to be the people that pull the trigger on a rate change…but we need to get the green light from…the United Nation once again recognizing the sovereignty of Iraqi people and the restrictions moved off their money.  We will be eyeballing that. But first we have to get their sovereignty reinstated.  That’s what we’re waiting for…

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   Speculated rates and theories:

Based on Kuwaiti Dinar:  It’s been said that the rate must equal their neighboring Kuwaiti Dinar rate, which would put the Dinar at $3+. Many people speculate that the Iraqi’s are a prideful people, and it would be a slap in the face to have a revalued currency be less than Kuwaits.

Based on “dropping the 0′s”:   It’s mentioned many times in the news that the 0′s could be dropped, which would mean one of two things:

1. The 0′s are dropped from the bills, which essentially puts most investors at a break even return. Nothing gained, nothing lost.

2. The 0′s are dropped from the exchange rate, which is currently .00086 (Dinars are worth about 1170 IQD per 1USD, or an exchange of .00086).

This means your dinars are worth .86 USD per Dinar – in other words, a 10,000 IQD note is exchanged for $8,600 minus spread and bank fees.  [post 1 of 3]

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru Based on “equal to the USD”:   We see articles all the time that reference the US Dollar, stating that the CBI wants the IQD to be equal to the USD.  An easy assumption is to simply RV at 1:1, making a 10,000IQD note worth $10,000. Based on “they can’t RV low or investors will buy too much!”:   Some people state they will not cash in for anything less than $1. They state that Iraq would be foolish to RV at a low rate, because then big money will come in and buy up a ton of Dinar before it can go higher. (This theory is wrong, FYI.) [post 2 of 3]

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   I agree with a few of the recent speculations.  But my opinion of the rate goes a little deeper… it includes a “business sense analysis” that everyone might consider.  Iraq is a business – and the business is natural reserves. Iraq holds a majority of the worlds natural gas and also black gold, also known as “oil”. When…the HCL has been settled, they will begin operating their business using the same principals any other successful company uses – the goals being profit, sustainability, and success!   [post 3 of 3]

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   The rate – let’s address that, because it’s important…One of the most frustrating things about this adventure is the math…  The value WILL go up. The question is, and always has been… How much, and when?… Unfortunately, there is no way to know for sure. That’s why this is called “speculation” instead of “guaranteed”, just like “fishing” isn’t called “catching”. (We all know how many fish you catch if you never throw a line out!) …What we CAN do is make reasonable guesses. We can form informed opinions.  …I think the Iraqi Dinar should have a higher value, and I think we are simply waiting on the HCL…to be finalized… then it will be “GO” time!   …HCL is next.  The RV will be shortly after that, or it will happen simultaneously. Either way… we are closing in on the final day. … Go HCL, Go Iraq, GO RRRRRVVVVVV!!!

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   There are so many things that I want to go over right now I barely know where to start!  …There are changes coming in the tax codes (for multiple countries), there are political situations that are extremely relevant and telling, and so much more is happening all at once right now!  …The “basics” are simple, and that’s all anyone really needs to be able to sit back and wait. Iraq previously held one of the highest valued currencies in the world, and one day they will again. Although their country was knocked into the stone ages through a series of events that are now somewhat ancient history, Iraq still holds a majority of the black gold available on this planet. While the world runs on this stuff, and it will continue to do so, Iraq continues to hold an immensely powerful position. They suffered some extreme setbacks, but they did not lose their oil. This is a no-brainer to me – the value of Iraq’s currency will rise again. [post 1 of 2]

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   …The main holdup has been political. When Saddam was removed, the entire government basically collapsed, and the world lost faith in Iraq’s ability to do… anything…The current situation is entirely different than the situation that dropped the value of the Dinar.  In fact, the current situation is entirely different than that of Iraq even 5 years ago!  We currently have a Prime Minister in place who is finally doing all the right things. I have affectionately named him “Kazzamie” because the progress he’s made seems like a magic trick at times! …The next crucial step to this journey, and this is a fundamental part of it, is the HCL.  “HCL”, or “Hydro Carbon Law”, is the agreement necessary to furthering Iraq’s regaining of wealth. Without the HCL in place, there is no financial agreement within Iraq, and it is more beneficial to the politicians to keep the rate low. Once the HCL is in place, it will be more beneficial to have a higher rate… and we are seeing a LOT of promising news on HCL right now… [post 2 of 2]

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   … securing the ports reduces corruption and gets rid of the Iranian influence currently using the border to smuggle dollars to Iran. Has nothing to do with an RV.

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   Shabs is a smart guy. He’s said many times that the IQD could increase, but a $16 price tag is just silly. I’m still (mostly) on the ten cent train. I can see a flat dollar. I’ll agree that even the RI rate of $3.26 is possible. But $16… I just can’t see Shabs saying that.

Breitling – Dinar Guru   …We’re in a very very good spot...Our window just got bigger.  The value of the dinar – they need to take care of the budget – just got bigger.  They just told us that it will be within 3 months that they’re going to completely redo this thing and have a plan to implement all this.  We’ve learned a lot in the last month.  Probably more than the entire time we’ve been watching.  They’re putting the value on the table.  They are telling you they need $66 per barrel and they’re telling you the oil prices are never going to get there for the next few years.  They are telling you …they are going to put this stuff together and implement it within 3 months…they need to be able to afford to be in international markets, protect their reserves and have value added to their currency.  That’s the only way...

Pimpy – Dinar Guru  …I’m concerned about what’s going on around the world a little bit…there’s definitely something going on.  I know the Iraqi dinar is part of it.  I haven’t figured it out yet but there’s definitely something weird going on.  There’s a lot of stress testing going on, in banks around the world.  Stress testing is whenever they try to do a slight shock to the stock exchange or something that would cause a semi panic of people running to the bank and they want to make sure that the bank’s first of all are liquid enough so that if there was a mad rush to the bank that they would have enough money to give the people…we’re definitely in a unique position right now.  How all this ties together I’m not quite sure but it definitely looks like there’s something big going on and Iraqi dinar believe it or not is a big part of it.

Breitling – Dinar Guru  If the value of their currency is too high regionally…no body is going to want to do business with Iraq because the value of labor is too high.  This is how Iraq is going to look at it.  They are going to look at that.  And they are also going to compare it with them doing business outside of Iraq and they might be able to pull it off.  That’s how they’re looking at it.  That’s why they haven’t made the decision yet.  That’s why they’re taking their time.  You guys are in panic mode because you’re waiting for your big payday.  You don’t realize how important of a decision this is for Iraq…  [Post 1 of 2]

Breitling – Dinar Guru   …They’ve got to be able to balance…how do they be competitive in the region and also take advantage of the International markets?  Because if they go too high – regionally they’re going to get cut off.  If they go too low they’re not going to be able to pay for the local budget. [Post 2 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   …I know for a FACT that it is not the CBI so much that is holding back the currency reform portion of the reforms but the “powers to be” (PTB) who may feel Iraq is not yet ready and the Iranian influence and corruption is still not under the desired control. Iraq still also needs to make good on its promises to diversify and get off of oil as it’s sole source of revenue. There have been mandates handed down to Iraq to implement before they can or will get back their currency…

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   Article:  “Specialists warn of the repercussions of the devaluation of the dinar”   They are beating this into peoples heads… They are not going to devalue the currency… End of story. They are going to go to a market economy. That requires Article 8 compliance…imo. Article 8 compliance is to raise the value of the IQD. imo.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   …There is now NO sign from the CBI they are doing any actions for a near future RV for the rest of this year. Sorry!   For some time it was looking as though we might have a pretty good chance but that chance was killed this week. Now that the finance committee in conjunction with the CBI has re-issued bonds to cover the 3months beyond July – Sept for the salaries. So the pressure is off and we may have to wait a bit longer to see the reinstatement. Maybe January 2021 is coming back into view? Just saying….

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru The new PM Kazzamie is operating efficiently and effectively.  We are going to hear some distractions and criticisms, but he is doing a great job in my opinion.

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru  …They have to raise the exchange rate of the dinar, not the dollar and this is where we are at…they’ve been telling us and telling us and telling us and we’re just waiting and waiting and waiting but the fact remains is now they’re at the precipice.  They don’t have money to pay the salaries.  They said they were going to do it.  …the pressure is so hard on them to get this done it’s probably unbelievable…that’s why I’ve been focused to some degree on these next couple of days to see what they do.   Typically they’re gonna have to have an excuse when they don’t pay these people…they need to raise the value of the exchange rate.

Dinar Investor – Jeff  Article: “The Central Bank Announces Financial Assistance with 3-month salary insurance and talks about the date for the June wage payment”  …this level of news right now is walking you into September …the rate change is married to a budget so if you follow the movement of the money you can piece this together…we need to see when that budget goes into effect because the budget and the rate change are married together… they’re showing you they’re tentatively walking you into September.  I’m not giving you a date I’m just giving you an approximate generic information that they’re bringing fourth – trying to help you decode this and put the puzzle pieces together…

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  A lot of what has been occurring in the last few weeks has been addressed several times in the past by the World Bank and the IMF. So this is all good news that they are finally taking the steps necessary.

Pimpy – Dinar Guru  …I have a feeling this is going to be a really big month for us.  There’s a lot of things that are popping up that seem to be pointing to this month being a big month.  What that means exactly?  I’m not sure.  There’s a lot of speculation…Al-Kazemi is supposed to come here to meet with Pompeo and the president.  I told you one of the biggest announcements that we’re hoping to hear, and they do it out in the rose garden, is that Trump is encouraging the international community to restore the sovereignty  of Iraq for them to be recognized and embraced buy the International community.  And he announce the lifting of the restrictions on the currency and that allows it to start trading on the Forex.  That’s what we’re watching for.  That’s what we’re hoping for.

Delta – Dinar Guru   …the exchange rate is one of the pillars or economic reform.  You can not bring investors in, you cannot have liquidity, you can’t have any trust in your country if you don’t raise the value first.  And all of us know that…everybody knows that the exchange rate is going to change no matter what and the Prime Minister did agree to that…

Breitling – Dinar Guru   …they’re worried about regionally having a currency that’s valued too high.  The pressure cooker they’re in is that they need to add value to their currency otherwise they’re going to go broke.  If they add too much value to their currency they are going to go broke.    That’s just the reality.  But what people don’t understand is that other countries are in the same position…Iraq basically told everybody they want to get the value of their currency to $3.25.  [Wait a minute, you just said if their currency is too high in that region they are going to get their asses handed to them.]  That’s true.  But if their currency was a global currency, then it wouldn’t matter would it…   [Post 1 of 2]

Breitling – Dinar Guru  …Take for example the United States and Mexico.  How much is their peso worth.  Look at Canada…If Iraq is international they could have a huge high price.  But if they’re going to be local for right now, regional, then they can’t go that high…Let’s say their markets are going to be regional and they do add value to their currency it helps them get to international markets.  Well if they’re in international markets and it becomes more and more dependent on international markets you’re going to see the value of the currency keep going up…If it’s regional…they’re never going to get past a buck… [Post 2 of 2]

Dinar Update – Reports are coming in from Dinar buyers that some large currency brokers are out of dinar stock.  I made a pass through several dealer sites – some are showing they have dinar for sale, some are showing they’re out.  Buyer Beware – It appears some dealers are completing sales without actually having the currency on hand (betting on their ability to buy some currency in the future, with your money).  Wait times for orders have been as long as four weeks.  Some of the delays are Corona related.  If you want your dinar right away be sure to confirm ship times with the dealer.

BGG ~ This current scenario, IMHO, has purely to do with basic supply and demand principles. There has never been any reliable “pipeline supply” of Dinar from the Middle East to the U.S. This was always a silly thought. The Buy / Sell market here in the U.S. has always had some level of parity between buyers and sellers. Currently there is no such parity.

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   Article:  “Foreign Minister: The Kuwaiti Foreign Minister will visit Baghdad tomorrow”   It sure looks like they are signalling inclusiveness and with an urgency!  The Kurdistan high ranking Delegation is coming  to town and may be arriving in conjunction with the Kuwait Foreign Minister. Lets think about that a moment.  Pompeo is the USAs counter part to the Kuwait’s Foreign Minister, if I am not mistaken. The USA having had SFA meetings that were well received by all, may not be over just yet. There may be another one or so in the coming days too. I sense signings may be at hand to some very important items! [post 1 of 2]

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru  The IMF has had recent meetings with the” Crisis” Emergency Cell on currency reforms and the modalities or treatment if you will, to cure the current crisis.  There will be follow up meetings too. Kinda like a doctor to a patient. Take this alternative we have before us (raise the rate, secondary markets, SDR, Bonds, border fees, taxes and tariffs, reduction in refinery costs, etc.) and let it all take a few days/weeks to start working in conjunction and we will set another appointment for to review your progress, as in WORLD BANK management agreement… lol…imo.   [post 2 of 2]

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  If you want to see the Iraqi dinar go up in value which I assume you do…the only way it’s going to go up in value is when Iraq’s private sector economy grows. Only then will Iraq get off the peg and float the dinar allowing it to appreciate.