Dinar Observer Daily

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   An article…last evening indicated that Parliament will get the 2020 budget by the end of this week to begin review.   …also…an article…stated that on October 26th is when they’ll vote on special grades that has been postponed from the 24th. This is an important date for all as it pertains to CBI governor.

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Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   So, where do we stand today on getting this reinstatement of the Iraqi dinar?  We know that in order for Iraq to be successful financially and economically at the level they desire, they will soon have to reinstate the dinar to the global currency exchanges and trade their currency openly. The ISX does not trade currencies but getting the ISX hooked into the NASDAQ system certainly is a plus and speaks volumes of where they are heading. There are now plans to go ahead again as the CBI and the Finance Committee has told us many times already this is their plan. Remember the article in early 2019 telling us they plan to complete this currency reform in 2019?  But when will they finally move ahead with the next stage, that of the implementation of the project to delete the zeros?   We know that the coins and the smaller of the smaller category notes are already staged at the banks and ready for use. How long can the banks tie up this money without using it to benefit the bank’s profit margin?

Dinar Investor – Jeff  …there are two things that have to happen for the rate to change.  The first one is Iraq must finish the formation of the government…they’ve put that into hyper-speed since the demonstrations …There’s a good chance they could have that done by the end of the year…they just have to get the proxies out and do a cabinet reshuffle…the other thing we are waiting on is the 2020 budget.   The reason why?  First off lots of monies in this 2020 budget being utilized for the rate change…it will have Article 140 in it.  HCL, those are monies that will be given back to the citizens…they could finish the budget around February…

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   …the IMF is part of the United Nations. There is an agreement with every member country that they will follow the directives as a member. But Iraq is different as well because in December of 2015 they signed an agreement known as a standby agreement with Iraq to allow the IMF to be trustee over the CBI. If you look up the definition of a trustee you will see that they have control. And as a result, significant progress has been made at the CBI over the last few years in many areas.  I’m sure they can make a move without the IMF but Iraq is an emerging market and they want to be part of the UN and they want to be part of the IMF and they want the world to do business with them so it would be probably foolish to make a move of any kind without consulting with the IMF first.

Francis Albert – Dinar Guru   I have no sources, just a pretty good understanding of finance, Central Banking etc. and there’s no way one can objectively look at the actions of the CBI over the past few years and especially the past six months, and come to any other conclusion that there’s currency reform underway in Iraq…everything they’ve done and are doing as we speak is just what investors in this want to see.

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   Article: “The protests are back on the 25th of this month. The demonstrators identify 23 demands”  So they are on notice again that the demonstrations will become very specific. They want what they deserve and I imagine, if they don’t have things done ahead of the 10/25/2019 time frame, things will be a bit more aggressive.

BGG ~ According to this article published 10/1/19 – Dinarupdates.com/blog

The demonstrator demands listed include:

# 1) declare a real war on corruption and open all the files of corruption and with the help of specialized international bodies to issues of corruption
and the enactment of the law where you (got) This.

# 5) Cancellation of the currency auction and the adoption of free market policy.

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru  So, this current news cycle we are reading and hearing about involving “the Kurds” isn’t specifically about Iraqi Kurds, but the events unfolding right now are going to do one very significant thing with regards to Iraq…a message is being sent. I’m not saying I approve or disapprove of the tactics, or the decision to withdraw troops, or the decision to put them there in the first place. But what’s happening right now is irrefutable evidence that the US of A has a huge influence in the Middle East, the affairs of the Middle East, and therefore… the Iraqi economy, which includes the trade value of the Dinar.  What this sets up in the near future is the confidence and assurance that with the US on their side, Iraq can make changes, improvements, and progress.  What happened to Turkey in the past, and may happen very soon again, can happen to Iraq.  The same is true of the inverse… where we can inflict severe harm, we can also support massive gain.  [post 2 of 2]

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru  It was announced last week that we are withdrawing US troops from Syria, which led to talk of Turkey ramping up attacks on the Kurds…Trump responds by saying if Turkey steps out of line we will hit them in the wallet, and…we’re all like “wait what about the Iraqi Dinar?!”  Article quote:  “…After World War I, Western powers promised Kurds their own homeland in the agreement known as the Treaty of Sèvres. But a later agreement instead divided them among Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Iran…”  …let’s identify “the Kurds”… Quote: “Today, there are about 30 million Kurds living across the region, with about half of them in Turkey. Iraq is the only country in the region to have established an autonomous Kurdish region, known as Iraqi Kurdistan…”   [post 1 of 2]

RVAlready – Dinar Guru    CBI has clear intention to implement the RV. Allaq has made that very plain… It is the folks profiting from the fiat currency systems of the world that have probably been the main holdup.  I suspect the Chinese want the RV even more than us. They are probably not the hold up.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   …Articles and documents over the years and certainly there are documents…talk about raising the value but I don’t think I’ve ever seen one where they said it would happen overnight…I do hope they raise the value I think that’s in the best interest of Iraq but logically it’s not possible to happen overnight.  …I don’t know if it can go on Forex initially but interbanking is certainly the possibility, the CBI has stated that themselves that they are working towards that but we’ll have to wait and see when they accept Article VIII what happens.

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru Article:  “Reveal the visit of a high Kurdish delegation to resolve the 2020 budget”   Quote: “a high-level Kurdish delegation will arrive in the next few days to Baghdad to resolve the 2020 budget file.” The theme we are seeing is noted, as in “days not weeks”  …They are clearly taking action now. The sh#@ storm they went through this last week or so has the “fire under the camel now”. Anyone seen now without the good of the citizens, will not go over well.  The trend has reforms front and center, as they know they have time lines for real issues that need(ed) to be addressed. …Keep in mind the citizens know that they have been told about NSCNs and Coins, Fils, etc. That would be something that would not go on deaf ears.. Everyone wants purchase power that comes with the new small category notes, coins and fils.  The descriptions of the real deal need to be shown, once they show them? imo.

Some very interesting observations here…

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  I don’t mind having conversations with people that want to discuss different subjects pertaining to the dinar but I wish they would do their homework first. For example, one individual thinks that the IMF only can encourage the CBI but  cannot control them or dictate.  But more importantly back in 2015 when Iraq was in financial dire straits when oil prices were low an agreement giving trustee (ship?) to the IMF over the CBI was sign (ed?) around December 2015.  There’s also a significant difference between the oil credit nonsense and the recent agreement between China and Iraq selling oil at market price in exchange for work labor to rebuild the country.

BGG  Article:  “Iraqis are floating on oil … and sinking into poverty, unemployment and corruption” Wow…They are saying almost exactly half of all the revenues Iraq produced between 2005-2017 were wasted due to corruption!  “…350 billion through currency smuggling, auction of the Central Bank and lagging contracts and fake projects”.  They also go on to talk about the oil reserves, the plan to revalue the Dinar and the current undervaluation of the Dinar;  “…which remains under the logical limit of the fifth largest oil producer in the world (1200 dinars per dollar)”.  Whoa… not bad. Not too bad at all… It’s no wonder the Iraqi people are rising up. They are sick of it. Good for them.

Breitling – Dinar Investors  …It [protesters] actually has an advantage for our investment.  Because it’s putting pressure on the Iraq government to add value.  So not only are the oil prices going down, not only has the reserve been depleted, now you have people rioting because they are not being taken care of and they need to add value to their currency.  So it advances our investment.  It advances our speculation…

Dinar Investor – Jeff   …we still have 2 things remain for the rate change.  They have to finish the formation of the government… positively or tentatively next Tuesday…Iraq went from telling you nothing about the formation of the government regarding the education minister, Health Minister…And they were Able to magically out of nowhere put nominees in there at the blink of an eye like it was nothing…They were intentionally delaying and timing…to have the government finished and formed around the timing of the rate change.  That’s why they were delaying it and dragging it…they voted them in in two seconds.  They had to change what they were doing to satisfy and appease the demonstrators…they are on track to get it done…this is happening right in front of you.  This isn’t my opinion…we’re waiting on the 2020 budget which will get done next year…

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   People can only sit for so long with empty promises to they get restless. The government needs to activate economic reforms, laws and the banking system needs to get open for investors to come in.  Otherwise violence is only going to escalate. 

Chattels – Dinar Guru   Article:  “Iraq, China launch ‘oil for reconstruction’ agreement”   Quote:   “When Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi led a delegation to China in September, Baghdad and Beijing activated an “oil for reconstruction” and investment program. Under the arrangement, Chinese firms work in Iraq in exchange for 100,000 barrels per day.”   Certainly is a different means of monetizing oil or bartering oil for desperately needed services that Iraq cannot arguably otherwise afford.  The foregoing would appear to DIRECTLY contradict Kaperoni… “Oil credits and reduced prices for oil is all… nonsense…Iraq could never sell oil in exchange at a reduced price…because the budget is 90% dependent on Iraq’s oil exports”.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   Article:   “Finance Committee in the Iraqi Council of Representatives announced on Monday (19-August-2019) the government direction to reinstate the currency and delete zeros from paper currency in order to strengthen the national economy”  You better hope that doesn’t happen because they’re talking about a lop it’s clear as day…”I want to remove the zeros off the paper“…meaning lop them.   …my hope is the CBI is going to follow the directive of the IMF in float the currency and allow it to gradually rise based on the influx of capital as a result of significant investment to create a market economy. But as a backup it seems that Parliament wants to pass a law to Simply lop the zeros off the notes and create a one-to-one exchange rate, as well as reducing the currency from trillions to billions… We have to hope Iraq succeeds in launching this market economy.

BGG ~ I’m not sure this is as much a “slam dunk” translation as is laid out here. Further…

1) How would this POSSIBLY reconcile with all their previous statements that the new and old versions would co-exist in the market place for as long as 10 years? How would this be possible?

2) Also note the following post regarding Kaperoni’s dramatic statement about oil credits being “nonsense” followed the very next day by an actual news release out of Iraq detailing just such an arrangement agreed to by both Mahdi and China. Hmmmmm….

David M. Witty – Dinar Guru   Iraqi PM Abdel-Mahdi: tomorrow [Thursday], Parliament will vote on making ministerial changes, amending the constitution, & changing election laws. We want to make real reform.

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   I have a longer weekly update prepared, but until these protests calm down… the GOI has their work cut out for them.  It’s a shame that this is happening, because I had some information towards the end of last week that had me getting pumped up.  As much as many of us don’t like it… Iraq needs to wade through this mess, and get the protests calmed down a bit before they can take their next steps.  Don’t shoot the messenger.   The good news is that we aren’t experiencing permanent setbacks. This too shall pass, and when it does, the progress will resume. These types of situations are usually short lived…

Dinar Investor – Jeff    Remember the CBI and the GOI are completely autonomous.  So whatever happens with the GOI it has nothing to to do with the CBI.  The CBI controls the money.  The GOI controls the government and they work with the people.  The only thing the CBI is seeking from the government is stability.  Before they will agree to change the rate, they want the GOI to have a formed completed government…and they also need to have an approved 2020 budget because that’s where post rate change monies will come from for reconstruction, Article 140 and the HCL…   [post 2 of 2]

Dinar Investor – Jeff  …everybody else was telling us that Mahdi would be removed and that the government would be dismantled.  Why aren’t you giving us any of those details?  Great question.  Thank you for asking.  Here’s why.  From the beginning I have told you that the demonstrations would have no bearing on this investment.  If anything the demonstrations have confirmed and proven everything that I’ve been telling you since the end of August…the demonstrations have had no bearing. [post 1 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   …as an investor in the dinar, we are not yet seeing the currency reform demand of the protestors being met. Let’ s see what happens in Thursday’s session in parliament…

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   Oil credits and reduced prices for oil is all… nonsense…Iraq could never sell oil in exchange at a reduced price…because the budget is 90% dependent on Iraq’s oil exports. And over 50% of the annual budget itself is salaries. Therefore they could never sell oil for less that that amount in the budget calculation for a particular year or they couldn’t meet their budget not to mention they wouldn’t be able to pay their people.  Maybe someday if Iraq ever had a fully functional market economy and diversified to 50% or so and the state payroll was less than it is they may be an opportunity to do something like that but that is so far in the distance…

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru    So, there was talk of dismissal of current prime minister Mahdi. According to the constitution this would be a no confidence vote. So what happened on this vote on Saturday?  A parliamentary source said on Monday that the House of Representatives will hold its eighth session to discuss the demonstrations on Tuesday.  The source said in an interview with Alsumaria News, “The House of Representatives will be held at one o’clock on Tuesday, its regular session.”  He added that “the session will be dedicated to discuss the demonstrations and take the necessary measures to meet the demands of the demonstrators.”  [post 2 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   The Iraq protestors continue until the list of demands are met. We know these demands include stopping the currency auctions. We know if they do this they will then move the dinar to trade international. We have been waiting for this for many years as investors in the currency. But the question is – will this protesting effort actually put pressure on them to do it?  We know there is already a plan to roll out the smaller and the small category notes and coins by the CBI.  They keep telling the people of all the corruption but it seems to make no difference.  [post 1 of 2….stay tuned]

Chattels – Dinar Guru  Article:  “Parliament officially votes to freeze the work of provincial councils”  Quote:  “…The House of Representatives officially voted to freeze the work of the provincial councils.  It also voted on the recommendations of the parliamentary committee charged with considering the demands of the demonstrators”    It appears that the Iraqi Parliament managed to obtain a quorum for today’s business.

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   …The so called brotherly neighbor has tentacles deep inside helping them selves to the cash cow called Currency Auctions. I don’t disagree, there are things in the country that are and will be far from over. However, one good way to solve this is to stop the auctions, raise the value, which will provide jobs that will come from going international with a new internationally excepted currency. This would be a facilitator for global trade for the world which will in turn, beget purchasing power for the citizens, while they grow economically with the new jobs created from the positive effects of raising the value. IMO.

Bloodloch – Dinar Investor   There are somewhere between six and a dozen or more different factors that may influence exchange rates, depending upon who you are talking to. The money supply or currency issued is just one of them. Investor speculation, interest rate differentials, inflation rate differentials, gross domestic product, international investments, trade deals, and other factors all may come into play. At times it may seem like such determinations are more art than raw number-crunching science, or perhaps it’s just whatever the central banks want it to be in order to achieve some global political agenda.  Investopedia says, “… exchange rates are determined by numerous complex factors that often leave even the most experienced economists flummoxed… ”  I couldn’t agree with them more.