Dinar Observer Daily

Delta – Dinar Guru  Single Currency Crosses…LOT OF MOVEMENT NEVER SEEN BEFORE…SPECIALLY…EUR/IQD AND GBP/IQD…

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   As much as we all hate “I told you so’s”, here are a couple. Headlines from the past couple days include: 1. BREXIT.  When this was first brought up in 2016, I voiced my opinion that it wouldn’t be successful and not to worry about it. As of this morning, it looks like the whole thing was a huge waste of time and is going nowhere… time will tell, but I could have told you that as well.    2. Did you catch my update last week? One of my talking points was oil, the price per barrel, and Iraq’s sneaky but convenient exception to the ongoing limitations on production by OPEC members.  Just look at these headlines…   [post 1 of 2]

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Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Should we get our bottle of champagne ready?  I have to tell everyone the CBI is still telling me they are targeting the month of January.  I would not open your bottle of champagne and celebrate as of yet but I certainly would think about getting a nice BIG bottle and get it chilled and ready. But remember this saga is not over until the fat lady sings. Too many signs are showing us that this could finally be our month to see it. It has been a VERY long journey but I thinks perhaps it is coming to a conclusion…finally….
[post 2 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Will the reinstatement happen in 2019?  We don’t know when the reinstatement will occur for sure and many say the project to delete the zeros is now all done. So go figure?  …This news is coming from some VERY credible sources of information…   …there are no more delays expected. The process is on the move. They are telling us once again 2019 is our timeframe. OK – hold on to your horses! I do not know the exact timeframe in 2019 but all we can confirm is two things – 1) they just told us this week in the news media that 2019 is our year and 2) we know they normally like to target January and we still have half of the month of January remaining.  So let’s see what happens in January and if it does not happen then we move to another target. [post 1 of 2]

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru      A member of the Economic and Investment Committee said today that Iraq may be forced to float the dinar to encourage investment in Iraq…Sound familiar?   There is no doubt in my mind we will see the dinar float at or about the same time as the launch of the banking system and market economy for investment.  Hang in there.  This seems to be the year Iraq will move forward launching a private sector and encouraging foreign investment.

Daytrader – Dinar Guru   All that happens as the result of the consultation is agreement on a plan of action to make any necessary corrections.  There is no failure, only a plan of action to rectify concerns. Iraq and the IMF have been planning the reinstatement of the IQD for a very long time, and during this time they continued to develop and fine-tune the process specific to Iraq’s needs.  IMO this has nothing to do with nor will it have any impact on what we seek.  [post 2 of 2]

Daytrader – Dinar Guru  A number of members have expressed concern over a statement regarding an IMF Article IV consultation not occurring until later this year.  This is Iraq’s normal Article IV consultation schedule.  Most countries have an Article IV consultation with the IMF every 24 months, including the United States. It provides an opportunity for both the IMF and the country to discuss specifically where the country might have monetary policy or procedural shortcomings that need correction, and review what they’re doing that meets Article IV criteria. [post 1 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru    Question:  When will the 3 Zeros be DELETED?    The CBI will only complete the project to delete the zeros until the CBI and the finance committee can come together on an agreement as to when to do it. Then we hope nothing changes their mind in the meantime since scheduled. We are not waiting for the economy to take off or for reconstruction to first happen. I know for a FACT that the reinstatement is part of the condition by the IMF to release reconstruction funds. This was a plan from 2018-2022 so it already late.   They need to know that the funds are secure and will be used for this purpose.  …This is what makes this past May 2018 election so important. Investors and the IMF want technocratic cabinet members who are honestly going to move Iraq forward. No more playing games. They don’t care how long it takes. They will not budge until the government is fully formed and Iran is out of the politics to a point they can no longer harm the process.

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   Article:  “The Central Bank cancels a 2% commission payment for the $20 category and less”  Well well.. Now why in the world would they cancel 2% commission on relatively small category notes of foreign currency?  …The CBI is doing this for a reason and I suspect it is for a very good reason. As in they are going to have similar small notes that have more value therefore, they will have to exchange similar notes on a daily basis.. So imo, this is huge…imo.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   If you go back and read some of the transition documents…from the IMF it fits right in line with the plan we see evolving in Iraq.  I also encourage anyone who has not yet reviewed the IMF Article IV Consultation from 2013 and 2017 to go…and review this information.  It also fits in line with what we are seeing evolve in Iraq. 

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Question: So what happens to the currency in circulation and the currency that was printed but never circulated when this takes place? Does the value go down? e.g. 25,000 notes become worth only 25 dollars? If they delete three 0’s 1 dinar would be worth 0.85 cents as of today.

Sunkissed – Dinar Guru  …After all the haggling and demands that Iraq has served up to Jordan… the bottom line actually rests with Iraq:  THEY MUST HAVE PURCHASING POWER to be able to absorb the MASSIVE QUANTITIES of goods, minerals, etc., coming INTO Iraq!  Ball is DEFINITELY in Iraq’s court!  Promises were made in the BEGINNING of 2018!! (Respect the first quarter! Sound familiar? — [Guru] Walkingstick was accurate!)  And now, the longer they wait, the more difficult, if not impossible it will be for Jordan to perform in time!  BUT…in order to perform on their contract… Iraq MUST FIRST HAVE PURCHASING POWER!  Iraq HAS TO BE READY AND ABLE TO PAY THEM!  Therefore, February 02, 2019, appears to be the back-wall, Drop Dead Date, “to be an exquisite mutual-beneficial relationship.”  If February 02, 2019 is the Drop Dead Date, then we are looking at Feb 02 – 04 (Monday) for the IQD to go live.  However… imo…. it certainly could go before that date!  [post 2 of 2]

Sunkissed – Dinar Guru   In my opinion, the TIMING of this article is utterly FANTASTIC…this article gives us the DROP DEAD DATE? (imo).   FEBRUARY 02, 2019.   JORDAN IS RACING AGAINST TIME.  why?  Well… imo… it looks like… February 02, 2019 is a deadline date to IMPLEMENTATION. For what?  Remember that December 29-30 meeting when many contracts were signed? Looks like Jordan signed some “old” deals that were “renewed” – I suppose we would use the word “updated” (to reflect a new rate? a more competitive price, since so many contractors are FLOODING into Iraq?)  So… there’s the PRESSURE! Contracts were signed on December 29-30 and to be IMPLEMENTED BY FEBRUARY 02, 2019!   [post 1 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   But as sure as I am writing this…today, we are all of a sudden going to see a burst of flames as we know the tinder is already starting to smoke and is about ready to flare up. As in starting a good camp fire, we can see that much activity is about to burst into action and will soon move forward very aggressively. The two items they need for this to happen is to get the 2019 budget passed and then these remaining cabinet positions off of proxy and into solid, technocrats for these remaining positions.   [post 2 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   The House of Representatives ended its session on Saturday, the House of Representatives finished the first reading of the draft law on financial management. Nothing happened on voting for cabinet members on Saturday.  MP of the Alliance for Reform and Reconstruction, Hassan Fadas, said that on Monday, the resolution of the Interior Ministry candidate is the main obstacle to completion of the ministerial cabinet. Let’s see how this plays out….  …there is news about the intention of Faleh Fayyad too withdraw his candidacy from the Interior. If this happens there may be some real progress finally in this direction. Let’s see how it plays out this week.   [post 1 of 2]

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   [I’ve always heard the government has nothing to do with the Dinar. That only the CBI could begin the float. If so then why do people say only when the government is set the float can begin.]   Monetary policy is the CBI.  That being said, such a significant event requires support from the Iraqi government.  As well, much of the directives being implemented by Iraq are part of the reforms agreed under IMF or WB Stand by Agreements.

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru  Article: “Iraqi Dinar revaluation postponed by Central Bank for 5 years says MP Noura al-Bajari by Amre Sarhan Oct 29, 2014,”   Good deal…Walkingstick told us back years ago that the process on the second set of books takes time. I believe there is data to support that from the imf. Didn’t WS suggest that time of the four year process to be 01/01/2018? I think so. So if that is the case which, I believe to be supportive being his track record is very good. The One more year equates to? Any time now! Imo.

Delta – Dinar Guru   Article quote:  “The revaluation of the Iraqi dinar is ready to be implemented by the country’s Central Bank; however, the Parliamentary Economic and Investment Commission has decided to postpone the revaluation to 2019.”   THIS ARTICLE IS FROM 08/16/2017…2019 IT’S…

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  The dinar you own will never go back to Iraq.  It will become part of the global traded currencies.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Article:  “Iran pushes Iraq to maintain trade without US dollar”  This has NOTHING to do with the CBI determining when to reinstate the dinar. There is absolutely no connection for pressuring the Iraqi central bank. Will a reinstatement of the Iraqi dinar actually be good for this situation? Actually NO, and so why would the US push the CBI to use the dinar in place of the US dollar.   If it were a good thing the Central bank could they just end the currency auctions and use dinar to trade with Iran. But the fact is it is NOT that simple and the other reasons why Iraq has not yet reinstated their currency still exist. …They can’t just RV or RI cause they need to trade with one country in the middle east. It does not make any sense.  …In the long term this pressure from the US to have Iraq more independent from Iran is the BEST thing that can ever happen to Iraq.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru    So some are asking the significance of why the government needs to be offically formed for the IMF to engage with Iraq?  Usually on these types of agreements a legitimate government is needed for validating/confirm signatures.   [The normal cycle for Article IV consultations for countries under a program is 24 months. Thus Iraq is not due for an Article IV until the summer of 2019.]   Wrong.  Iraq under it’s programs meets annually.  Not to mention, the representative to Iraq told me directly they will not meet with Iraq until the completed formation of the government…

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   …we know Iraq has the plan to coincide the smaller category notes with the larger 3 zero notes together. We know this because the central bank of Iraq itself has told us. This is what really is going to make us rich someday. …If Iraq was going to just “lop” they would have done it already.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  Great new article from the World Bank talking about Iraq’s GDP going from 1.9% in 2018 to 6.2% in 2019.  How?  Unless they open the banking system to the world for global investment.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Article:  “THE THREE PRESIDENCIES MEET POMPEO AND THE LATTER RENEWS HIS COUNTRY’S SUPPORT FOR IRAQ”  Article quote:  “activation of economic cooperation and investment between the two countries”. They are about to get this ball rolling from this 2018-2022 reconstruction plan. This plan, as we know, hinges on reinstating their currency. Why? They will need “free flow” of capital in and out of Iraq and they can not do this having to go to currency auctions and keep converting dinar to dollars. Get it? They will need automated, international systems to transfer money and these systems use the global currency exchanges to convert the currency to the proper exchange rates…

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru    People ask me all the time…”why is it that a float is the only solution for Iraq?”  Because it is the only way to gradually reduce the money supply as the dinar appreciates in value as a result of investment to reduce inflation.   …a mythical RV or RI…Never happening as there is to much (over 40 Trillion) dinar in circulation.  Can never happen. Only a float at this point could work.  There will never be a $3-$4 exchange rate of the dinar. Total nonsense.  Iraq is trying to rebuild and create GDP not go broke paying out on a currency exchange...Monetary policy is pretty well documented for emerging market economies.

Frank26 – Dinar Guru    On the 30th, of December, lifted the 3 zeros electronically. What I’m about to share with you is public knowledge. Why doesn’t the Internet know?  You…have the ability and privilege to receive our study from Walkingstick. Because Walkingstick is working with the Government of Iraq. On the 30th of Dec. 2018, WS firm received 240 contracts from the GOI. They started internally. 24 of them, have already been PAID. They were paid in IQD. The term of acceptance: 30 day contracts. Of the 240, 24 already paid in IQD. That’s exactly what Iraq has to do. I want you to know that these 240 contracts and the 24, they were paid at a rate of 1:1.  Those contracts will start on January 13, 2019. Details on other firms is unknown to us. Believe they are similar and paid in IQD at 1:1.

RVAlready – Dinar Guru  [So the budget being voted on tomorrow [Thursday]. Is that the news we’re waiting on for tomorrow or Friday?] We do not really care about their budget. The RV will happen independent of that. I think parliament is a smoke screen. Stuff in Iraq almost always comes from back room meetings. Sounds like cabinet will be announced tomorrow.

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   Yes, EVERYONE wins.  Even the OPEC members that may have seemingly “lost” some revenue with their limited production agreement. The truth of that matter is that none of them are in the dark about the potential for Iraq to revalue. They all sit there,innocently and conveniently silent about Iraq’s exclusion from the agreement. Coincidence? I think not. In fact, this is the KEY. It’s staring the world in the face, and only a small group of us are even paying attention.  I’m ok with that.  HCL is still a pivotal issue, but there’s no point in finalizing the HCL until oil prices go back up.  More good news – Iraq is in a very good position to implement HCL, so once we see this graph going up again…game on!   [post 3 of 3]

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   The good and bad news is this – there are actions being taken to get the price of oil back up.  …Now, think about this little tidbit…Iraq has “confirmed their commitment to participating” in the oil productions cuts. But, as a savvy reader who remembers the details, you also know that Iraq was not specifically included in the original OPEC agreement. Iraq is essentially standing on the sidelines, voicing support, encouraging the action… but reserving the right to step back from it and swoop in on some profits once they are there again, while everyone else frantically tries to organize a vote to release themselves from their self-imposed restrictions. At that point in time, Iraq will have all the time they need to successfully execute a couple days or even weeks of trading, exchanging currency with higher values and reaping profits on said exchanges, and everyone wins.  [post 2 of 3]