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An oil expert explains the importance of the Baghdad-Kurdistan agreement and its impact on the global market.

Iraqi Oil expert Furat al-Moussawi considered the oil agreement between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Region a strategic and important agreement that paves the way for future legislation of a new oil and gas law. He noted that the next three months will be a litmus test of the extent of all parties’ commitment to its provisions.

During his appearance on the “Free Talk” program on Al Furat TV, Al-Moussawi said, “Iraq has suffered for more than twenty years from financial and economic problems that have affected the salaries of the region’s employees,” noting that “there are clear clauses in the agreement and others that remain ambiguous.”

He pointed out that “Iraq has been restricted in expanding industrial and development projects due to a production quota described as unfair, as its production ceiling has been set at 4.6 million barrels per day since 2018.”

Al-Moussawi explained that “Iraq attempted to negotiate with OPEC to increase its oil quota, but the negotiations did not achieve the desired results due to the quantities produced in the region outside SOMO’s quota. These quantities were deducted from Iraq’s OPEC quota and set at 1.4 million barrels from October 2024 until the end of October 2025, which harmed Iraq’s financial revenues and reputation within the organization.”

The expert discussed the demands of oil companies operating in the region, stating that “one of these demands was addressed by setting $16 as an approximate average figure, with an international company to determine the transportation and cost costs to pay those companies’ dues, amounting to approximately $1 billion, which was transferred to the federal government.”

He added, “The previous contract between the region and foreign companies was based on production-sharing, but a compromise formula was reached that allowed for the writing of a new law. Eight companies also requested to sign new contracts with the Baghdad government to guarantee their rights, with the federal government paying the companies $16 in kind through deducting oil quantities, not in cash. This was considered an achievement for those companies, with the agreement to postpone payment of the $1 billion.”

Despite the agreement’s importance, Al-Moussawi described it as “cautious due to its potential financial and legal risks,” noting that “Turkey seeks to cancel the Ceyhan pipeline and conclude a new agreement by the end of 2026, while Iraq has rushed to pump the region’s oil through the existing pipeline to increase its negotiating leverage with Ankara.”

He added, “The region’s oil companies are looking to sign formal international agreements with the federal government,” stressing that “Iraq will participate in the upcoming OPEC meeting on October 5, where it was agreed to raise its quota to 4 million and 220 thousand barrels per day, including between 800 and 900 thousand barrels for domestic consumption, with full commitment to the quota to strengthen its position in subsequent negotiations to increase it.”

Al-Moussawi explained that “Iraq views the Ceyhan pipeline as a strategic option for diversifying export outlets and preventing any smuggling attempts,” noting that “the region’s oil quantities will be counted toward Iraq’s OPEC quota,” noting that “oil derivative prices in the region are very high due to the reliance on private refineries.”

He concluded his remarks by stressing that “setting the 50% share for the region is not the end of the road, as Baghdad will work to raise it to 70% and also supply the region with kerosene and gasoline to ease the burden on citizens.”

Alforatnews.iq

Al-Sadr’s latest messages: a final warning to the political system and a warning of a dangerous predicament.

A source close to the leader of the Shiite National Movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, revealed on Tuesday the messages al-Sadr intended to convey in his final tweet on Monday.

Yesterday, al-Sadr responded to the threats recently circulated about a plot to assassinate him, saying: “Such leaks will not cause strife. We love our country and do not want it to be harmed. No one will respond to your strife. We are counting on the awareness and obedience of the (National Shiite Movement), as we have always known them.”

He added in a post on his personal account: “Everyone should expect, in the remaining days before the election, an escalation by those who love power, those who love positions, and those who salivate over money and positions.”

Regarding these messages, a source close to al-Sadr told Shafaq News Agency, “Sadr’s latest tweet is not just a passing position, but a strategic message carrying an early warning to the entire political system. Al-Sadr wanted to emphasize that despite withdrawing from the elections, he still holds the reins of the popular and political initiative.”

According to the source, who requested anonymity, “Al-Sadr also wanted to convey a message that any attempt to marginalize his movement would lead the country into a dangerous impasse. The core of the message was to reject the replication of consensus and quota systems, and to call for a national majority government or an effective opposition, which represents a serious reform option.”

According to him, “The future of the political and public landscape in Iraq depends on the response of other forces: either they side with reform and avoid chaos, or they face pressure from the Sadrist street, which remains the most important card in the Iraqi equation.”

The roots of this escalation go back to “opposition” activist Ali Fadel, who stated during a social media program that he possessed information about State of Law Coalition MP Yasser Sakhil’s intention to assassinate al-Sadr during his visit to his father’s shrine in Najaf using a drone.

Following this, security tensions erupted in Basra province last night following the deployment of members of Saraya al-Salam, the armed wing of the Shiite National Movement led by Sadr. This was in response to Ali Fadhil’s statements.

In response, MP Yasser al-Maliki issued a statement denying the accusations, describing the program’s content as “slander and falsehoods aimed at creating strife,” and affirming his intention to prosecute “everyone behind these allegations.”

Shafaq.com

British company BP describes Kirkuk oil fields as “dream fields.”

British energy company BP described the Kirkuk oil field, along with three other global fields, as its “dream fields” on Tuesday, citing their massive reserves that will fuel the company’s growth.

The company said in a statement seen by Shafaq News Agency that the vast underground reservoirs, which contain hundreds of millions, even billions, of barrels of oil and gas, are more than just huge numbers on a spreadsheet of these fields.

She added that the Kirkuk fields, once among the world’s most productive areas, hold enormous potential, with shared resource opportunities estimated at up to 20 billion barrels of oil equivalent.

“BP has a long history in that area with regard to Kirkuk, and there is trust that has built up over decades, and that is one of the reasons why we are inviting them to return,” said Mohammed Hussein, BP’s vice president for subsoil in the Middle East.

He added that the field represents a lifeline for the community and symbolizes BP’s strong relationship with Iraq and our commitment to supporting countries in achieving their energy goals, adding: We are very proud to be participating again.

Hussein pointed out that other dream oil fields include Azerbaijan’s ACG field, the giant Mad Dog field in the Gulf of Mexico, and India’s Mumbai field.

In March 2025, the Ministry of Oil signed a contract with the British company BP regarding the development and production project of the four oil fields in Kirkuk, namely: (Kirkuk with its two domes (Baba and Avana), Bai Hassan, Jambur, and Khabbaz).

Shafaq.com

By 2025, Iraq’s financial revenues will exceed 72 trillion dinars.

The Ministry of Finance revealed on Tuesday that Iraq’s federal budget revenues from January to July of this year exceeded 72 trillion dinars, indicating that oil’s contribution to the budget declined slightly to 90%.

Shafaq News Agency followed up on the data and tables issued by the Ministry of Finance in August for the fiscal year’s accounts for the first seven months of the current year, which showed a 90% increase in oil’s contribution to the general budget compared to the previous month, indicating that the rentier economy is the basis of the country’s general budget.

The financial tables indicated that total revenues amounted to 72 trillion, 35 billion, 27 million, 218 thousand, and 561 dinars.

According to the financial tables, oil revenues amounted to 64 trillion, 959 billion, 638 million, and 432 thousand dinars, representing 90% of the general budget, while non-oil revenues amounted to 7 trillion, 75 billion, 388 million, and 786 thousand dinars.

She indicated that the total salaries of employees amounted to 38 trillion, 504 billion, and 28 million dinars, while social welfare salaries amounted to 3 trillion, 248 billion, and 328 million dinars, and retirees’ salaries amounted to 10 trillion, 945 billion, and 565 million dinars.

According to the budget, total expenditures for current expenses amounted to 64 trillion, 271 billion, 478 million, and 235 thousand dinars.

In March 2021, the Prime Minister’s advisor for financial affairs, Mazhar Mohammed Salih, confirmed to Shafaq News Agency that the reasons for the economy remaining rentier are due to the wars and the economic blockade imposed on Iraq during the past era, as well as the political conflicts we are witnessing today, which have led to the dispersion of economic resources.

The Iraqi state’s continued reliance on oil as its sole source of public finances places it at risk from the global crises that occur from time to time, due to the impact of oil. This forces the country to each time resort to covering the deficit through external or domestic borrowing. This indicates an inability to manage the state’s finances effectively and an inability to find alternative financing solutions.

Shafaq.com

Baghdad sends nearly a trillion dinars to Erbil to fund salaries for Kurdistan Region employees.

The Kurdistan Region’s Ministry of Finance and Economy announced on Tuesday that the federal government had sent approximately one trillion dinars to fund the salaries of public sector employees and workers in the region for July.

The ministry said in a statement today that an amount of 956 billion and 928 million dinars was deposited into the bank account of the Ministry of Finance and Economy in the Kurdistan Region at the Erbil branch of the Central Bank of Iraq to finance salaries in the region.

Shafaq.com

The oil agreement with Kurdistan: Washington pushed Baghdad toward concessions and acceptance through both enticement and intimidation.

The resumption of oil flow through the pipeline between the Kurdistan Region and Turkey continues to generate conflicting interpretations. Some view it as an inevitable step brought about by US pressure and threats of sanctions against Baghdad, while others portray it as a sunrise over the region’s mountains, but only a first step.

Oil Price, a website specializing in oil affairs, stated in a report translated by Shafaq News Agency that “the United States views the Kurdistan Region as a strategic partner and is exerting pressure on Baghdad to cut its dependence on Iran, while China, Russia, and Iran support Baghdad’s position of central control over the oil sector.”

The website quoted an oil sector source close to the Iraqi Oil Ministry as saying, “The United States’ entry into the two-and-a-half-year conflict is the main reason behind the lack of sudden objections from the Iraqi federal government and Turkey.” He noted that “Baghdad had previously demanded that Ankara pay $1.5 billion in damages for exports it considers illegal by the Kurdistan Region before resuming operations on the pipeline.”

He explained that “early congratulations on the resumption of oil flows from the region to Turkey, on September 27, came from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who confirmed that Washington helped facilitate the deal.”

The report continued, saying, “Washington began increasing pressure on Baghdad to agree to such a deal with the region last March through a very frank conversation between Rubio and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, where the US Secretary of State emphasized the importance the United States places on Iraq’s energy independence, and thus stopping supporting Iran by continuing to buy gas and electricity from it.” He added, “It was made clear at the time that if Baghdad moved in these directions, it would receive more investment from the United States, but if it did not, there would be no more investment, but rather more sanctions would be imposed on it, and their severity would escalate very quickly.”

However, the Oil Price report stated that, given the significant interest of both the global North and South in the outcome of the relationship between the Kurdistan Region and the federal government in Baghdad, it remains to be seen which of the two sides will use the carrot-and-stick approach to be most convincing to Baghdad.

For its part, the English-language newspaper The National described the resumption of oil flow through the Kurdistan Region’s oil pipeline to Turkey as a “sunrise” over the region’s mountains after a two-year closure. However, it considered this to be only the first step for the region and Iraq as a whole.

The Abu Dhabi-based newspaper’s report, also translated by Shafaq News Agency, stated that the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline (ITP) began operations in 1977, transporting oil from the area surrounding the giant Kirkuk field to the Turkish port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean. The report noted that this route was vital for Iraq because it avoided reliance on its political rivals, Iran to the east and Syria to the west.

He pointed out that after Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Iran in 1980, Iraq’s oil exports through the Gulf were cut off, leaving Turkey as the sole outlet for Iraqi oil. He explained that a second, larger pipeline along the same route entered service in 1987, late in the Iran-Iraq War.

The report explained that in 2013, the Kurdistan Region completed a pipeline linking its own fields to the ITP and began marketing its oil independently of the Iraqi federal authorities, which consider this to be their sole responsibility. It noted that a ruling in March 2023 in favor of Iraq on this dispute forced Turkey to close the pipeline. Although Ankara was subsequently prepared to reopen it, the dispute over oil rights between the federal authorities and the region hindered progress.

According to the report, al-Sudani was keen to resolve the pipeline crisis, but was under pressure from anti-Kurdish political elements in Baghdad. The report explained that al-Sudani was keen to reach an agreement to strengthen his position before the November parliamentary elections.

He also stated that the United States was exerting its influence in a bid to help its companies operating in Kurdistan, bring more oil to the market, and weaken Iranian-linked interests in Baghdad. He added that the Kurdistan Region and the federal government had reached an agreement whereby the federal Ministry of Oil, through SOMO, would market the oil, which in turn would open the way for central budget payments to Erbil.

However, the report noted that international oil companies operating in Kurdistan have refrained from resuming exports until their financial interests are guaranteed and the validity of their contracts is accepted by the federal government, at least implicitly. It added: “Because of this, the agreement was almost derailed by drone strikes that caused minor damage to some fields in July and temporarily cut production by about 100,000 barrels per day. However, after lengthy negotiations, an agreement was reached that was joined by all international oil companies operating in the region, with the exception of the Russian companies Rosneft and Gazprom, and the Norwegian company DNO.”

While SOMO will sell the oil, and companies will initially receive $16 per barrel, an amount that will be adjusted later, the Kurdistan Region is scheduled to deliver at least 230,000 barrels per day to SOMO for export, with 50,000 barrels per day allocated for domestic use, according to the report.

He pointed out that what is most significant in its long-term implications is that, after two decades of legal disputes, disagreements, and budget cuts, Baghdad has accepted the legitimacy of the Kurdish oil sector’s independence, while Erbil, in turn, has relinquished its sovereignty to federal authorities regarding oil exports and payments.

The report concluded that a more stable financial flow from the federal budget is expected to stabilize the Kurdish economy, and that many international companies will now be able to invest more consistently in new developments, boosting the region’s production.

However, he noted at the same time that the next stage concerns the expiration of the Iraq-Turkey pipeline agreement in July of next year. Turkey has previously indicated that it will not renew the agreement and wants a new treaty.

The website also noted that the pipeline is important to both countries, but could be put to much better use. It could be rehabilitated to its original capacity of 1.5 million barrels per day, while Turkey wants to expand it to carry 2.2 million barrels per day. It also noted that Turkey will likely seek to negotiate a reduction in the international arbitration compensation it owes Baghdad.

The report stated that Iraq had previously proposed the idea of ​​building a pipeline to Aqaba in Jordan, which would allow it to have an independent outlet from the Gulf. However, it noted that this pipeline could be interrupted by bad weather or military aggression.

He emphasized that the recent war between Israel and Iran had heightened these concerns, and that the Aqaba route was long and costly. He noted that the new regime in Syria was open to the idea of ​​reviving the Kirkuk-Banias pipeline, an option that would strengthen Baghdad’s position in its negotiations with Ankara.

The website concluded its report by stating that “previously limited-term deals on oil and the budget between Baghdad and Erbil were prone to collapse within a few months,” noting that “there are many details that could hinder cooperation this time, and that fixing a major source of headaches and distractions should make the entire Iraqi energy sector run more smoothly.”

Shafaq.com

Iraq: The Development Road Project establishes a non-rentier economy capable of meeting contemporary challenges.

Iraqi Minister of Transport Razzaq Muhaibis al-Saadawi said on Tuesday that the vital development road project lays the foundation for a non-rentier economy capable of meeting the challenges of the times.

This came during his hosting of a dialogue session at the Global Rail 2025 exhibition for rail, transport and infrastructure in Abu Dhabi, UAE.

During the session, Al-Saadawi stated that international experience confirms that investing in railway infrastructure yields significant returns, including reduced transportation costs, enhanced trade competitiveness, and increased supply chain efficiency. Hence, the Iraq Development Road Project, a pioneering project that has made the railway sector one of its main pillars.

He added, “The Iraq Development Road project is not just a corridor for goods and passengers, but rather a network of life that brings with it job and investment opportunities.”

The Minister continued by saying that the development path represents a strategic vision for rebuilding the economy on sustainable foundations, through industrial and investment cities along its path. It also serves as a bridge linking the interests of countries and their cultures, transforming distances into cultural opportunities and establishing a non-rentier economy capable of meeting the challenges of the times.

In April 2024, Iraq, Turkey, the UAE, and Qatar signed a quadripartite agreement on the Iraq Development Road Project, under the auspices of Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

The agreement aims to enhance cooperation regarding Iraq’s strategic development project, as the four countries will work to establish the necessary frameworks for its implementation, according to a statement issued by the Prime Minister’s Office.

The strategic development road project is expected to contribute to stimulating economic growth and strengthening regional and international cooperation, achieving economic integration and sustainability between East and West.

The project will also increase international trade, facilitate the movement of goods, provide a new competitive transportation route, and enhance regional economic prosperity.

It’s worth noting that the “Development Road” project is a land and railway route extending from Iraq to Turkey and its ports. The road and railway span 1,200 kilometers within Iraq and are primarily intended to transport goods between Europe and the Gulf states.

The project’s investment budget is approximately $17 billion, including $6.5 billion for the expressway and $10.5 billion for the electric train. It will be completed in three phases, the first of which will end in 2028, the second in 2033, and the third in 2050.

The project is expected to provide approximately 100,000 job opportunities in the first phase, and one million job opportunities upon completion.

Shafaq.com

The Trump administration is reviewing its troop deployment in Iraq, and the Secretary of Defense is directing readiness.

Media outlets reported on Tuesday that the Trump administration is preparing to announce the redeployment of US forces in Iraq, according to a US official.

The Qatari Al Jazeera channel quoted the official as saying, “The redeployment of our forces is consistent with the Trump administration’s strategic priorities in Iraq and the region.”

This statement coincides with US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s announcement during a speech at Quantico Air Base in the presence of US military leaders on Tuesday that “our first mission at the Department of Defense will be to prepare for war and prepare for victory, without compromise or complacency.”

The US Secretary of Defense added, “History teaches us that those who deserve peace are those willing to wage war to defend it. Peace must be achieved through strength. Either we are prepared to win or we are not.”

“The current moment requires more troops, munitions, drones, Patriot systems, submarines, and B-21 bombers,” Hegseth noted.

Washington and Baghdad have reached an agreement on a plan for the withdrawal of US-led international coalition forces from Iraq, with reports indicating that hundreds of troops will leave by September 2025, and the remainder by the end of the following year.

The United States and Iraq aim to establish a new advisory relationship that could keep some US forces in Iraq after the withdrawal.

Last August, the Iraqi Foreign Ministry confirmed the postponement of the announcement of the end of the coalition’s mission, with the Foreign Minister indicating that the circumstances of the negotiations had changed.

There were also warnings from armed factions that attacks could resume if negotiations continue to stall.

This agreement came after more than six months of talks, initiated by the Iraqi Prime Minister in January 2023, amid escalating attacks by Iranian-backed factions on US forces.

Shafaq.com

Al-Sudani’s advisor comments on “drowning Iraq in debt”: “Under control.”

The financial and economic advisor to the Iraqi Prime Minister, Mazhar Mohammed Salih, commented on Tuesday on reports that Iraq is “drowning in debt” and warnings of a bleak future for the economy.

“Iraq’s outstanding external debts total less than $20 billion, half of which are due by 2028, and specific annual disbursements are allocated for them in the federal budget,” Saleh told Shafaq News Agency. He stressed that “Iraq has never defaulted on its debts, thanks to a government coordination process and precise technical mechanisms between the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank, which has given the country a good reputation among external creditors.”

He added, “What is being raised about the domestic public debt, which amounts to more than 92 trillion dinars, is that it is held exclusively by the government banking system, and less than half of it is in the investment portfolio of the Central Bank of Iraq, which is managed with high technical and financial efficiency.”

Saleh stressed that “there is no cause for concern, as long as there are repayment mechanisms under discussion within official economic circles, and monetary and fiscal policies are working to extinguish the domestic debt through objective solutions, including mobilizing real, re-invested wealth within an integrated national fund.”

He explained that “the current model is based on converting debt into investment rights in productive projects, which leads to stimulating real investment activity and guarantees debt repayment,” noting that “Iraq possesses enormous economic wealth that undoubtedly exceeds the size of these debts.”

The Central Bank of Iraq revealed in an official statistic that the size of the country’s debts incurred during the year 2024 amounted to 54 billion and 601 million dollars, a decrease of 2.94% compared to the year 2023, which recorded 56 billion and 207 million dollars, while the internal public debt until the end of last June (2025) amounted to 85 trillion and 586 billion dinars, an increase from its level last year, which amounted to 83 trillion and 80 billion dinars.

Shafaq.com