Iraqi elections: Al-Sudani’s balance grants him US blessing for a “second term”
The upcoming Iraqi elections represent a major turning point in the country’s history, potentially reshaping the political system. There appears to be an early indication from the United States that it is prepared to engage with Mohammed Shia al-Sudani if he serves a second term as prime minister, according to the oil-focused website Oil Price.
The website noted the presence of several vital geopolitical issues, with China currently controlling two-thirds of Iraq’s oil production, while the United States and its allies are intensifying their multibillion-dollar investments in the energy sector to counter growing Chinese influence.
According to the US report, translated by Shafaq News Agency, the Iraqi elections scheduled for November could represent a pivotal turning point since the overthrow of former President Saddam Hussein in 2003. The report noted that the voting process, and the subsequent steps to select a president and appoint a prime minister, will be complicated by the absence of conclusive electoral results due to the proportional representation system. The report considered this process to be crucial not only for Iraq, but also for all major powers in the world in the coming years.
The report explained that there are significant stakes for the United States and China, as evidenced by the size and scope of their investments in Iraq’s main economic driver, the energy sector. It indicated that Washington lost much of its influence on the ground over time after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, while China took advantage of this vacuum, with the help of both Russia and Iran.
He added that this shift in Iraq’s engagement with China rather than the United States has accelerated since 2018, following Washington’s withdrawal from the nuclear agreement with Iran, which uses Iraq as an arena for its “insurgency.” It further accelerated after the end of the US combat mission in Iraq in December 2021, coinciding with escalating tensions in the trade war between Washington and Beijing. These factors have prompted China to accelerate its investments in Iraq without significant restrictions.
According to the report, Chinese companies now manage more than two-thirds of Iraq’s oil production, control more than a third of its proven oil reserves, and hold controlling stakes in several vital oil and gas infrastructure projects, including ports and refineries.
In contrast, the United States and its allies, particularly Britain and France, have begun to counter this Chinese expansion by pumping massive investments into giant oil and gas projects, after years of hesitation due to corruption concerns. In this context, the report cited projects by TotalEnergies ($27 billion) and BP ($25 billion).
At the same time, the report stated that Russia continues to play its role, as mapped out by Beijing, by deepening the rift between the federal government and the Kurdistan Region.
The report indicated that these conflicting pressures are weighing heavily on current Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, whom it described as the most likely candidate to retain his position. The report praised his ability to maintain a delicate and exceptional balance between the various forces without unduly disturbing any party.
The report found that al-Sudani has primarily adopted a pragmatic approach. Despite his affiliation with the Shiite bloc, he belongs to the most moderate of its three main factions. His approach has been characterized by small, consistent steps in several areas, including the addition of major energy projects with major powers, the implementation of new infrastructure projects for roads and refineries, and the fight against corruption. This has had a positive impact on the return of major Western oil and gas companies to work in Iraq.
The report quoted sources close to the Iraqi Ministry of Oil as saying that Western companies are now largely satisfied with elements of the current contracts, which had previously been a source of concern, particularly regarding transparency.
According to a prominent source within the ministry, “Many Iraqis view al-Sudani as a centrist figure within the Shiite bloc, more nationalistic than the Coordination Framework, which is close to Iran, and less religious than the followers of Muqtada al-Sadr.”
The source added, “These voters hope that the Sudanese electoral coalition (Reconstruction and Development) will secure enough additional seats—perhaps around 50—to have a decisive influence in post-election negotiations, whether in selecting the president or naming the prime minister.”
Despite the Sadrist movement’s boycott of the elections, the report indicated that many of the movement’s voters may be inclined to support al-Sudani’s moderate nationalist agenda, rather than the pro-Iranian forces within the Coordination Framework.
The report indicated that a number of Shiite factions remain ideologically, financially, and strategically linked to Iran, and some have direct ties to the Popular Mobilization Forces. However, the report quoted the source as saying, “The desire to continue this deep relationship with Iran has begun to decline, especially among Iraqi youth.”
The report suggested that al-Sudani likely received support from Qais Khazali and Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, despite former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s attempts to obstruct such support. The report noted that al-Maliki’s position appears to be tied to his personal ambitions to return to the premiership.
The report also noted that Khazali’s support would be beneficial to al-Sudani in his dealings with the Kurdish bloc, given his good relationship with Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) President Bafel Talabani. The report cited the close coordination between the two parties during the 2023 municipal elections, which contributed to strengthening the PUK’s position in Kirkuk.
Accordingly, the report anticipated the possibility of reaching an agreement to expand this alliance in support of Al-Sudani’s candidacy for prime minister again, especially since he is considered the most likely candidate to conclude mutual support deals with prominent political figures, most notably Mohammed al-Halbousi, who expressed his support for Al-Sudani’s efforts to implement a comprehensive development program focused on institutional reform, addressing the displacement issue, compensating victims of terrorism, and achieving economic recovery.
The report concluded by noting that al-Sudani’s re-assumption of the prime ministership would be a positive development for the United States and its allies, according to a senior legal source in Washington with ties to the US Treasury Department, who said: “Al-Sudani is someone we can work with.”
Shafaq.com