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An economist says Iraq’s reserves are capable of supporting the dinar despite the risks.

Economic expert Safwan Qusay warned against devaluing the Iraqi dinar against the dollar, coinciding with the ongoing conflict in the region.
Qusay told Al-Maalouma, “The Central Bank possesses dollar reserves exceeding $90 billion, along with more than 170 tons of gold, enabling it to maintain the current exchange rate.”

He added, “If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed due to the regional war and its continuous escalation, without accountability for those responsible for this closure, which has caused significant damage to the Iraqi economy, the dinar will undoubtedly depreciate against the dollar due to the depletion of reserves.”

He explained, “No one desires the continuation of the current situation, which would force the government to devalue the dinar against the dollar, as this would increase inflation rates. This matter is directly linked to the depth and duration of the conflict.”

Almaalomah.me

“An explanation that needs further explanation”… An economic expert: The Central Bank of Iraq’s statement on the currency did not answer the questions.

On Monday, economist Manar Al-Obaidi stated that the latest clarification issued by the Central Bank of Iraq lacked answers to many questions regarding the effects of its measures on the monetary and economic reality, demanding that it publish detailed data on the treasury transfer portfolio and its impact on the monetary base.

Al-Obaidi, commenting on the Central Bank’s statement issued on June 7, 2026, said that he agrees with the technical distinction between “discounting treasury transfers” and “printing currency,” but the discussion should focus on the monetary impact of these tools, questioning whether discounting transfers at the Central Bank practically leads to the creation of a new monetary base and the reflection of this on the money supply.

He added that the recovery of treasury remittances at maturity is supposed to be done from real revenues, questioning whether the remittances due are being repaid from actual cash flows or are being rolled over through the issuance of new remittances, which could turn temporary financing into a permanent cash obligation.

Al-Ubaidi called on the Central Bank to publish figures relating to the size of the treasury remittance portfolio and its development during the past months, and its impact on the monetary base, as well as to clarify the reasons for the rise in currency circulating outside banks and its coincidence with the stagnation of deposits and the rise in annual inflation rates.

He also called for clarifying the safeguards that prevent exceptional measures from becoming a permanent policy for financing the deficit, and announcing clear time and quantity limits for this type of financing.

He pointed out that a number of economic indicators, including accelerating inflation and declining monetary indicators, call for more transparency and disclosure, stressing that publishing detailed data is the best way to resolve the ongoing debate about monetary policy and ensure confidence in financial stability.

The Central Bank of Iraq issued a clarification yesterday, Sunday, regarding what is being circulated about the issue of printing currency and financing public expenditures, following statements by Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein indicating that 25 trillion dinars would be printed to confront the financial crisis and provide salaries.

He explained in a statement received by Shafaq News Agency that “there is a fundamental and important difference between ‘discounting treasury bills’ and ‘printing currency’ on both the technical and economic levels; discounting bills provides temporary financial liquidity against an existing government debt instrument, and is repaid when the bill matures. It is an internationally recognized financial mechanism, practiced by major central banks with strict adherence to its maturity dates.”

He continued: “As for (printing currency), it is the issuance of new money without compensation that is injected directly into the economy, which leads to direct inflation and erosion of the currency’s value. It is not recovered and represents a permanent monetary burden, and this is something that is completely prohibited under the Central Bank of Iraq Law No. (56) of 2004. Therefore, the simplified description of the ongoing operations as ‘printing currency’ does not reflect its true technical and financial nature.”

The Central Bank stressed that its primary role is to manage monetary policy, maintain monetary stability, price stability, and the integrity of the financial system, and not to be a permanent channel for financing public expenditures.

Shafaq.com

Inflation in Iraq jumps to 4.3% in April

Data from Iraq’s Central Statistical Organization showed on Monday that the general consumer price index reached 112.5 points during April 2026.

The general consumer price index in Iraq reached approximately 112.5 points during April 2026, compared to 110.6 points in March 2026, recording an increase of 1.7%, which represents the monthly inflation rate, according to the agency’s data.

The overall consumer price index also rose compared to April 2025, when it reached 107.9 points, with the annual inflation rate recording an increase of 4.3%.

The data indicates continued inflationary pressures in the Iraqi economy, with price levels increasing on both a monthly and annual basis during April 2026.

Shafaq.com

Economist: Iraq has become a “salary state” and the oil crisis threatens to paralyze it.

Financial expert Mahmoud Dagher confirmed on Monday that public finances in Iraq have turned into something resembling “salary finances” since 2004, as a result of the almost complete reliance on oil revenues to cover monthly operating expenses, primarily the salaries of employees, retirees and social welfare.

Dagher told Shafaq News Agency that “the continuous expansion in government appointments during the past years has led to an inflation of operational spending, so that most of the oil revenues are allocated to cover salaries, pensions and social assistance, which has made the success or failure of governments linked to their ability to secure salaries and disburse them on time.”

He added that “any oil crisis or halt in exports could paralyze public finances, as happened during previous crises or in light of current regional tensions, which may force the government to resort to exceptional options to provide liquidity, including discounting treasury remittances through the central bank.”

He explained that “the available alternatives are still limited in the short term, due to weak non-oil revenues, limited tax collection, the difficulty of diversifying the economy after two decades of dependence on the public sector, as well as the widening phenomenon of disguised unemployment and the dependence of large numbers of citizens on government jobs as a main source of income.”

Dagher pointed out that “the continuation of the crises for a long period may push the government to take austerity or temporary measures to alleviate the pressure on the budget, including improving the collection of electricity and water services, postponing the disbursement of some financial dues to farmers and contractors, reducing luxury imports, as well as freezing allowances, promotions, bonuses and profits.”

The financial expert continued, saying that the “zero oil revenue” scenario puts Iraq in front of difficult economic and political choices, in light of rising financial obligations and increasing social pressures, which makes dealing with the crisis more complicated and costly for the state and society.

The Iraqi economy is almost entirely dependent on oil, which accounts for about 90 to 95% of budget revenues, making any disruption to exports a direct challenge to the government’s ability to finance operating expenses, especially salaries, pensions and social welfare, with a monthly need estimated at about 9 trillion dinars ($6.8 billion).

Experts suggest that the continued halt or decline in exports may push Iraq to rely on part of its foreign reserves, which could affect monetary stability if the crisis lasts for a long time, given the limited reliance on export alternatives or non-oil revenues.

The war between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other has caused a near-complete paralysis of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a decrease in Iraqi exports to less than 800,000 barrels per day and losses estimated at about $128 million per day, according to the Eco Iraq Observatory, amid rising shipping and insurance costs and increasing fears of global economic repercussions due to the importance of the strait through which about 20 million barrels of oil pass per day.

Shafaq.com

Iraq reopens its airspace and resumes flights

The Iraqi Civil Aviation Authority announced on Monday the reopening of Iraqi airspace to flights to and from all Iraqi airports.

The authority stated in a statement received by Shafaq News Agency that “the decision to reopen the airspace comes after assessing the situation in coordination with the relevant authorities, in order to ensure the continuation of air traffic according to the highest standards of safety and security.”

The authority confirmed, according to the statement, that it continues to monitor and assess developments continuously in cooperation with the relevant authorities, to ensure the safety and security of Iraqi airspace.

She added that “it will notify airlines and passengers of any developments or updates related to air traffic through official and approved channels.”

It is worth noting that the Iraqi Civil Aviation Authority announced on Sunday evening the closure of Iraqi airspace to all incoming, outgoing and transit flights for 72 hours as a temporary and precautionary measure, against the backdrop of renewed conflict between Israel and Iran.

Shafaq.com

Iraq on the brink of a financial storm: Will the emergency plan save the economy before it’s too late?

In the world of economics, crises don’t begin the day governments announce their inability to pay salaries, nor when foreign currency reserves plummet to dangerous levels. Rather, they begin when countries ignore the early warning signs of an impending storm. Today, Iraq faces one of its most critical economic phases in years, not only due to the decline in oil prices, but also as a result of escalating regional challenges that threaten the lifeblood of the Iraqi economy: oil exports.

Iraq relies on oil for more than 85% of its budget revenues, making its economy highly sensitive to any disruption in global markets or oil export routes. With escalating tensions in the Gulf region and the risks associated with the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq faces the possibility of some of its oil exports being disrupted or reduced—a scenario that could directly impact government revenues, monetary stability, and the dinar’s exchange rate.

The risks are compounded by the prolonged disruption of Kurdistan Region oil exports, which has deprived the Iraqi treasury of billions of dollars that could have boosted revenues and eased financial pressures. Meanwhile, the state continues to bear a massive burden of salaries, subsidies, and operational expenses, while non-oil revenues remain limited and unable to offset any significant decline in oil revenues.

Despite these challenges, Iraq still possesses significant strengths. The country has substantial cash and gold reserves, foreign assets, and financial bonds, in addition to vast oil reserves and a strategic geographic location linking the Gulf to Turkey and Europe. However, the fundamental problem lies not in a lack of resources, but in how they are managed and in the speed with which appropriate decisions are made before the current pressures escalate into a wider financial crisis.

Hence the importance of adopting an urgent economic and financial emergency plan based on several parallel tracks. The first of these tracks is the resumption of oil exports from the Kurdistan Region through a temporary agreement between Baghdad and Erbil that guarantees the resumption of oil flows as quickly as possible. Every day that passes without the resumption of these exports means further revenue losses and increased pressure on the budget.

The second key area concerns protecting foreign currency reserves and managing the dollar more efficiently. Instead of depleting reserves or selling strategic assets, Iraq can utilize modern financial instruments that allow for temporary liquidity while preserving its financial assets. Priority should also be given to importing essential goods and raw materials necessary for production, while limiting luxury imports and unnecessary transfers that drain hard currency.

The third focus is on increasing non-oil revenues, which still constitute a modest percentage of the state’s resources. Iraq possesses significant potential in the areas of customs, taxes, and government services; however, weak tax collection, administrative corruption, and the informal economy continue to limit the state’s ability to utilize these resources.

The current crisis should also be used as an opportunity to redirect investments towards productive sectors, particularly electricity, gas, manufacturing, transportation, and logistics. These sectors not only provide employment opportunities but also contribute to reducing reliance on imports and generating added value within the national economy.

One area that deserves special attention is the digital economy. Iraq has a large youth population capable of working in software, digital services, e-commerce, and artificial intelligence. Given the limited opportunities for traditional employment, the digital economy can be one of the fastest ways to create jobs, increase income, and diversify sources of economic growth.

But the real danger lies not just in the decline in revenues, but in how they are managed. If any additional resources are used to expand consumer spending and unproductive employment, the crisis will return soon afterward. However, if these resources are directed toward investment, production, and improving infrastructure, Iraq could transform the current crisis into a springboard for a more diversified and sustainable economy.

Global economic experience has proven that nations do not prosper solely through abundant resources, but also through their ability to manage crises and make difficult decisions in a timely manner. Iraq today faces a true test. It possesses oil, reserves, a strategic geographic location, a domestic market, and human resources, but it needs a clear economic vision that prioritizes production and investment over short-term considerations.

Ultimately, the most crucial question is not whether Iraq possesses sufficient resources to overcome the crisis, but rather whether it has the political will and institutional capacity to utilize these resources before it is too late. Time has become an economic factor as vital as oil itself, and the longer reforms are delayed, the higher the cost of addressing the problem will be. Between opportunity and risk, Iraq stands today at a moment that could shape its economy for the next decade.

Economic Studies Unit / North America Office,

Rawabetcenter.com

MP: Initial understandings reached between political blocs and the Prime Minister to pass the oil and gas law

MP Adel Al-Mahalawi confirmed on Saturday that there are initial understandings between political blocs and the Prime Minister regarding proceeding with the passage of the oil and gas law in the coming period.

Al-Mahalawi told the Information Agency that there is political activity and initial understandings between political forces and the Prime Minister aimed at creating the necessary atmosphere for passing the oil and gas law, which is considered one of the important laws that has been long awaited.

He added that the law represents a fundamental step in regulating the management of oil wealth and defining the relationship between the federal government, the regions, and the oil-producing governorates in a way that guarantees the preservation of rights and achieves fairness in the distribution of revenues.

He indicated that the coming period may witness further dialogues and agreements between political parties to reach a final version that is acceptable to all concerned parties, in preparation for presenting the law to the Council of Representatives for a vote.

Almaalomah.me

Government advisor: Exchange rate stability has boosted citizens’ purchasing power

The financial advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Muhammad Saleh, confirmed on Saturday that the government, headed by Ali Falih al-Zaidi, has taken measures to preserve the purchasing power of the dinar and curb inflation.
Saleh said in a press statement followed by Al-Furat News: “The policy of stabilizing the official exchange rate is based on a fundamental goal, which is to protect the external value of the national currency and maintain the stability of the general price level,” noting that “the stability of the exchange rate has contributed to strengthening confidence in the Iraqi dinar and supporting the purchasing power of citizens.”

Saleh added that “the relationship between the stability of the exchange rate and the stability of prices of goods and services in the local market has remained close, given the limited impact of the parallel market on the pricing system and the effectiveness of monetary policy,” explaining that “financing imports through the official banking system and relying on the state’s foreign reserves has contributed to providing imported goods at stable and controlled prices.”

He added that “government policies to maintain stable prices for goods and public services, along with the expansion of modern commercial distribution patterns, particularly cooperative stores and advanced marketing formulas, have strengthened competition and contributed to reducing inflationary pressures and supporting price stability.”

Saleh explained that “among the most prominent factors that put pressure on the value of the national currency are the decline in official reserves, uncontrolled monetary expansion, and excessive reliance on oil revenues, which are currently subject to geopolitical restrictions imposed on the freedom of energy markets, as well as political and regional tensions and their effects on foreign exchange flows and economic confidence.”

He stressed that “raising the value of the Iraqi dinar is not achieved through quick administrative decisions, but rather through a long-term reform process based on the stability of monetary and financial policies, diversification of national income sources, and strengthening confidence in the local currency,” noting that “the stability of the dinar remains a direct reflection of the stability of the macroeconomy and its ability to cope with local and international changes, which is what the government is working on through a package of measures to strengthen the value of the Iraqi dinar, including working to strengthen foreign reserves, diversifying the national economy and reducing dependence on oil, achieving stability in the balance of payments, as well as controlling the parallel market, reforming the banking system, expanding the use of electronic payment tools and promoting financial inclusion.”

Alforatnews.iq

Al-Zarkoushi: A session to complete the ministerial portfolios is possible during this week.

On Saturday, Abdul Samad al-Zarkoushi, a member of the Coordination Framework, confirmed that holding a session of the Iraqi Parliament to finalize the remaining ministerial portfolios in Ali al-Zaidi’s government this week is possible, pending the completion of political agreements.

Al-Zarkoushi told Al-Maalouma that “all political forces, including the Coordination Framework, agree on the necessity of completing the vote on the remaining ministerial portfolios in Ali al-Zaidi’s government.” He explained that “the possibility of holding a parliamentary session to resolve these issues this week is very likely, pending political agreements expected to become clear within the next 72 hours.”

He added that “finalizing the ministerial portfolios is important, especially since they include ministries with political, service, and security dimensions, such as the Ministries of Interior, Defense, and Planning.” He pointed out that “the next phase is extremely important, especially given the presence of sensitive and complex issues awaiting a government roadmap, particularly in the financial and economic sectors.”

Al-Zarkoushi stressed that “completing the government formation is essential for managing the ministries and proceeding with the plans developed to address many past issues.”

Almaalomah.me