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A deficit of 43 trillion dinars: Balancing inflation and the refusal to increase Kurdistan’s share

The federal budget is facing a critical financial juncture due to unprecedented inflation in operational spending and a mounting deficit. Economic warnings are mounting about the depletion of the treasury caused by exorbitant privileges granted to special-grade officials and the inflated, unaccounted-for funding of pension and welfare funds. This comes as the Kurdistan Region’s demands for an increased financial allocation have been met with firm rejection from both parliament and the government.

The economic expert, Nasser al-Kinani, revealed data and figures exposing deep structural imbalances within the budget, warning of continued financial losses resulting from bloated public sector employment, inflated special-grade positions, and undeserved salaries. He also highlighted unjustified discrepancies in social safety net allocations.

Al-Kinani told Al-Maalomah News Agency in an exclusive statement that “the general budget is the largest in the country’s history, reaching 217 trillion dinars, compared to expected revenues of no more than 174 trillion dinars, leaving the country with an operational deficit of nearly 43 trillion dinars.”

He explained that “the most prominent flaw lies in funding the pension fund from the budget, when it should be self-financing through employee deductions, not being drained to pay pensions to groups who have not provided actual public service, such as members of the National Assembly, the Council of Representatives, and successive presidencies.”
He added that “the social welfare program alone consumes about 33 trillion dinars, equivalent to 14.8% of the total budget. This is an enormous sum that is not logically proportional to the announced number of beneficiaries and requires a comprehensive audit and a genuine review to clarify expenditures and address shortcomings.” He called for “the strict implementation of administrative automation to uncover ‘ghost employees’ and instances of double employment in the Baghdad Municipality, other municipalities, and the oil and electricity sectors.”

Shocking figures reveal the extent of the bloated senior civil service. An economic expert unveiled a map of this overstaffing, highlighting the existence of 770 high-level (A) positions, granting their holders allowances and privileges equivalent to a ministerial rank. These include 118 positions within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs alone, in addition to over 5,300 high-level (B) positions and approximately 51,841 first-level (director general) positions.

These positions are accompanied by extensive security details, travel allowances, and enormous financial allocations that burden public spending.
Al-Kinani warned of the worsening crisis, noting that the number of state employees, which already exceeded 4,074,000, is poised to surpass 5 million with continued job expansion and the increase in special grades. He emphasized that controlling the deficit requires genuine courage to reduce the privileges of senior officials, eliminate the bloated bureaucracy, and eradicate the sources of waste.

Parliamentary rejection of imposing a 14% share at the expense of the governorates.
Regarding the financial disputes between the central government and the region, Rabie Abdul Jalil, a member of the Parliamentary Oil, Gas and Natural Resources Committee, confirmed the impossibility of meeting the Erbil government’s demands to obtain 14% of the general budget, stressing the strict commitment to the percentages determined according to the surveys and official data at the Ministry of Planning, which determine the region’s entitlement to only 12%.

Abdul Jalil explained in a statement to Al-Maalomah that “the region’s demand to increase its share is impossible and completely unfeasible, and will be met with strong and decisive parliamentary rejection from most blocs and representatives from various governorates within the halls of the House of Representatives.” He pointed out that “the government is legally and morally obligated to adhere to the 12% quota, as the distribution of federal wealth must be based on fairness, population size, and indicators of deprivation, without yielding to any pressures seeking to impose undeserved percentages.”

These financial challenges place the executive and legislative branches before an urgent national imperative to restructure spending. Observers agree that reducing financial waste resulting from the proliferation of special grades and high allowances, and adjusting the constitutional quotas for regions and governorates according to actual entitlement rather than political favoritism, are the only inevitable paths to avoid financial collapse and maintain overall economic stability.

Almaalomah.me

Iraqi oil company reaches agreements with US-based Chevron regarding the West Qurna-2 oil field contract.

Iraqi Oil Minister Bassem al-Abadi announced on Tuesday that agreements had been reached with US company Chevron to sign a contract for the West Qurna-2 oil field before the end of this year, while talks continue regarding contracts for other fields.

Al-Abadi said in a video statement received by Shafaq News Agency that this came as a continuation of the discussions and negotiations related to the contracts of American companies, during the reception of Joe Cook, the general manager of business development at Chevron, and the discussion of various issues related to the West Qurna-2 field contract.

He explained that the ministry will provide support to Chevron, ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, as well as other American companies operating in Iraq, and work to remove obstacles in their way, in implementation of the government’s directives on the need to attract American companies to invest in the oil and gas sectors, and to benefit from their expertise in investing in and developing fields, transferring technology and training human resources.

He added that the presence of staff from Chevron, ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, along with other international companies in Iraq, reflects the availability of an attractive investment environment, stressing that the presence of these companies would enhance the oil industry.

He indicated that the coming days will witness an acceleration in reaching an agreement and completing the contractual formula, in preparation for the final signing of the contract.

Shafaq.com

Iraqi oil exports rise to 3.35 million barrels, driving a recovery in Gulf flows.

Iraq’s oil exports rose by 9.5% during October, reaching 3.35 million barrels per day, approaching pre-war levels, at a time when the most prominent Arab oil-producing countries in the Gulf recorded an overall increase in their shipments, which contributed to strengthening global supplies and reducing pressure on prices. Iraqeconomic reports

According to oil tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg and energy market analysis firms, exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait rose by 10% to 15.53 million barrels per day in October, approaching the levels of shipments recorded at the beginning of the year, while no Iranian exports were detected for the second month in a row, amid the US naval blockade.

According to the data, this increase reflects the return of oil flows from Arab producers in the Gulf, through transport and shipping operations that followed different routes to overcome the restrictions and risks associated with navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, mechanisms that the UAE began to adopt before Saudi Arabia later adopted them.

Iraq has the second largest increase

Iraq came in second among the four countries in terms of the size of the increase in exports during the past month, after boosting its flows by 9.5% to 3.35 million barrels per day, approaching pre-war levels.

Shipments from the southern port of Basra have increased, while those via the northern route through Turkey have nearly doubled, according to tanker tracking data, as Baghdad announced last month that its exports were approaching pre-conflict levels.

The increase in Iraqi exports comes as part of moves by Gulf producers to compensate for the quantities and revenues affected by the war, at a time when exporting countries are seeking to strengthen their presence in global markets, amid fears of renewed military escalation and supply disruptions.

Saudi Arabia leads

In this context, Saudi Arabia led the surge in exports, raising its flows to about 7 million barrels per day in October, an increase of 13% on a monthly basis, according to tanker tracking data and satellite images, in addition to data from Kpler and Vortexa.

After the kingdom’s exports remained lower than those of the UAE for most of the conflict, Saudi shipments began to rise as flows through the Strait of Hormuz were boosted, following a temporary shutdown of its alternative East-West pipeline during an attack launched from Iraq in September.

With the resumption of operations on the pipeline, Saudi Arabia is now benefiting from its traditional route through the Arabian Gulf, in addition to the alternative route through the Red Sea. Satellite images taken last week by the European satellite Sentinel-2 showed nine supertankers docked at Saudi berths in the Gulf, indicating an acceleration in loading operations.

The bulk of the Saudi increase came through the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, where exports jumped 35% to 3.07 million barrels per day.

As for the UAE, which was ahead of the rest of the Gulf states in boosting its exports during the conflict, its flows rose slightly by about 50,000 barrels per day, to an average of 3.74 million barrels per day, the highest level since last July.

The UAE’s oil production hit a new record high in September, according to the International Energy Agency. UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei stated at a conference in Abu Dhabi that his country’s exports had exceeded pre-war levels at certain points during the conflict, without specifying current shipment volumes.

In Kuwait, exports rose by about a third in October, reaching 1.44 million barrels per day, the highest level since before the war, according to tanker tracking data and Kpler. The Kuwait Petroleum Corporation announced last month that exports had returned to levels close to those before the conflict.

These shipments help maintain ample supplies in physical markets and contain prices, at a time when rising fuel prices, particularly gasoline and diesel, are increasing pressure on consumers and fueling inflation, as well as having political repercussions for US President Donald Trump as voters head to the polls in the midterm elections.

In contrast, crude oil futures fell on Monday, with signals from Washington and Tehran that diplomatic efforts might continue, but concerns about renewed military escalation still supported prices, with Brent crude trading near $106 a barrel.

Iran at zero

In contrast, no Iranian exports of crude oil or condensates were detected last month, for the second month in a row, according to tanker tracking data, amid the ongoing US naval blockade.

Satellite images taken by the European satellites Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 did not show loading activity at the Kharg Island docks and the Soroush and Jask export terminals during October.

However, the data may not reflect the full picture, as most oil tankers transporting Iranian crude deliberately turn off their GPS devices while inside the Arabian Gulf, making it more difficult to track their movement through the Strait of Hormuz.

In a related context, the Gulf member states of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) may have an additional incentive to maximize their exports, as the organization’s members prepare to negotiate production targets for 2027.

OPEC and its allies are conducting a review to determine the quantities that each member can actually produce, with the aim of adjusting production quotas, with ministers scheduled to meet on November 29.

Shafaq.com

The Iraqi government will hold an extraordinary session on Saturday to vote on the 2027 budget.

A government source reported on Tuesday that the Iraqi cabinet will hold an extraordinary session next Saturday, chaired by Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, to vote on the draft general budget law for 2027.

The source told Shafaq News Agency that the session will be dedicated to voting on the draft budget, in preparation for sending it to the House of Representatives for a vote before the end of this year.

The Ministry of Finance had referred the draft 2027 budget law to the Ministerial Council for the Economy on September 27, after completing its preparation stages, before the Council approved it and referred it to the Cabinet.

On October 4th, the parliamentary finance committee decided to host Finance Minister Faleh Sari to discuss budget priorities and the date for sending it to parliament, and expressed its displeasure at not having been informed in advance about the draft of the project and its articles.

The preparation of the 2027 budget comes after the failure to approve the 2025 budget schedules and the failure to approve a budget law for 2026, which kept government spending during the two years according to the temporary spending mechanism at a rate of 1/12, based on the Financial Management Law.

Shafaq.com

Following the easing of visa requirements, Damascus confirms the start of a new phase of trade exchange with Iraq.

On Tuesday, Mohammad Imad Al-Mawlawi, a member of the executive office of the Damascus Countryside Chamber of Commerce, affirmed that the decision to facilitate the granting of visas to traders between Syria and Iraq is an important step to enhance trade and investment exchange and expand partnership opportunities between the two countries, expecting its effects to gradually appear during the coming year. Iraqeconomic reports

Al-Mawlawi told Shafaq News Agency that the importance of the decision lies in removing one of the obstacles to direct trade, as it allows traders to travel to inspect markets, negotiate with buyers and suppliers, follow up on shipments, dues and warehouses, participate in exhibitions and build continuous trade relationships, which reduces reliance on intermediaries and their costs, and gives Syrian companies better opportunities to access the Iraqi market.

He added that facilitating movement will positively impact the mutual exports between the two countries, whether Syrian to Iraq or Iraqi to Syria, by enhancing direct communication between importers and distributors, enabling the monitoring of marketing campaigns and shipments, as well as enabling brand owners to send delegates and representatives to follow up on their work in the markets on an ongoing basis.

He pointed out that direct communication between traders contributes to reducing costs, exchanging experiences, and benefiting from the commercial and industrial experiences of both parties. He explained that the decision benefits traders registered in chambers of commerce within the excellent, first, and second grades, who have significant business volumes, production capabilities, and trade figures, as it allows them to expand their activity, access new markets, and participate in exhibitions and trade events.

Al-Mawlawi explained that possible areas of cooperation include the agriculture, industry, transportation, logistics, transit, energy, building materials and reconstruction projects sectors, noting that Syria has important opportunities for economic growth, and that facilitating visas may pave the way for increased mutual investments and the establishment of new partnerships.

However, he stressed that visa facilitation, despite its importance, is not enough on its own to guarantee the flow of investments, but needs to be complemented by other procedures and agreements, including activating border crossing agreements, providing more facilities, and simplifying procedures for the flow of business and trade between the two countries.

He explained that the decision came in response to the demands of the chambers of commerce to facilitate visa procedures, noting that the chambers are working in this direction with a number of countries, including Iraq, Turkey and Jordan, to promote the movement of businessmen and trade exchange.

Al-Mawlawi stressed the importance of the role of chambers of commerce in the next stage, through organizing meetings between businessmen, providing information related to markets and investment opportunities, working to overcome obstacles and transform communication channels into actual partnerships and investments, expressing his hope that the results of these measures will begin to appear in a tangible way during the next year.

The Federation of Syrian Chambers of Commerce announced on November 2 that the Iraqi government had agreed to facilitate the granting of entry visas to Syrian traders of excellent, first and second class, provided that their applications are completed by letters of recommendation issued by the Federation.

Syrian traders were facing difficulties in obtaining visas, which limited their ability to track their goods and make deals directly, and led some of them to rely on intermediaries.

The move comes after Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s visit to Damascus on October 28, where he discussed with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa strengthening economic and trade cooperation, expanding investment opportunities, and developing trade routes between the two countries.

Shafaq.com

American message to Baghdad: Iraq is a state sponsor of terrorism if it does not control the weapons of the factions.

Well-informed political sources reported on Tuesday that the acting US ambassador to Iraq, Steven Fagin, had delivered direct messages in recent days to government and political figures, confirming that Washington is monitoring steps to restrict weapons to the state.

According to sources who spoke to Shafaq News Agency, Fagen warned that failure to comply with the pledges and failure to put in place a concrete plan to end the presence of weapons outside the control of the state by next June 30 will push Washington to consider Iraq a state sponsor of terrorism and to take various sanctions and measures against it.

The sources added that Fagen confirmed, during his recent meetings in Baghdad, that Washington has not yet seen real and tangible measures that confirm the state’s monopoly on weapons, especially with the continued threats from the factions, the latest of which was the attempt to target the US embassy in central Baghdad with drones.

Earlier today, a source familiar with the inner workings of the Quartet Committee tasked with negotiating with the factions revealed that Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi had intervened in the negotiations by holding separate meetings with some leaders of the groups refusing to hand over weapons.

According to the source, the committee is continuing its meetings and has achieved significant progress in this regard, and it is committed to completing its mission by the date announced by the Prime Minister, the end of June 2027.

The Loyalists Movement confirmed last Friday that the movement will not hand over its weapons, explaining that the agreement includes regulating and limiting weapons during the period from September 2026 to June 2027, and not withdrawing or handing them over.

It is worth noting that the state’s monopoly on weapons does not have the consensus of the Iraqi factions, as the Al-Nujaba Movement, Kataib Hezbollah, Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada and other factions have announced their refusal to give up their military capabilities.

Shafaq.com

Calls for the Ministry of Finance to intervene: The difficulty in applying for “Rafidain” loans through the application opens the door to exploitation.

A number of employees and retirees called on Finance Minister Faleh al-Sari and members of the House of Representatives, especially the Parliamentary Finance Committee, to intervene urgently to address the difficulties facing applications for bank loans issued by Rafidain Bank, and to find solutions that ensure that those entitled to them can access them without complications. ReadDaily News

A number of employees and retirees told Shafaq News Agency that the electronic application for loan applications is only open for short periods of time, not exceeding a few minutes, before it stops again due to the heavy pressure on the system, thus depriving large numbers of those wishing to apply of the opportunity to obtain the loan.

They added that the difficulty in accessing the application and completing the application procedures has led some citizens to resort to intermediaries in exchange for money, in an attempt to obtain the advance, which raises concerns about exploiting the needs of employees and retirees, and undermines the principle of equal opportunities among applicants.

Employees and retirees called on the relevant authorities to take urgent measures to facilitate the application process, develop the technical infrastructure of the application to accommodate the large number of users, and provide electronic channels and other alternatives that ensure the smooth application process and fair access to loans, away from complications and intermediaries.

Last October, Finance Minister Falih Sari directed the management of Al-Rafidain Bank to release financial loans for employees and facilitate the procedures for obtaining them, with a focus on shortening the time required to complete transactions and simplifying the application steps.

An informed source revealed earlier that Rafidain Bank has launched loans for employees and retirees in amounts of 5 million and 10 million dinars, with an annual interest rate of 6%, to be repaid over five years.

The source explained in an interview with Shafaq News Agency that applications for loans are available electronically through the “Super Key” application, as part of the move towards enhancing digital banking services and simplifying procedures for employees and retirees, enabling them to submit their applications without needing to visit bank branches.

He pointed out that this step comes within the efforts of Al-Rafidain Bank to develop its banking services and expand the scope of electronic services provided to citizens, which contributes to facilitating access to financial services and reducing bureaucratic procedures.

Shafaq.com

International Monetary Fund: We are preparing to lend to Iraq

The International Monetary Fund announced on Thursday that it is preparing a new lending program for Iraq, whose economy has been severely damaged by the repercussions of the war with Iran, after beginning talks with authorities in Baghdad.

“Our plan now is to engage with the authorities to better understand their priorities, how to address their vulnerabilities, and then move forward to determine the best ways we can support them through a financing program,” said IMF spokeswoman Julie Kozak during a press conference in Washington.

Kozak noted that Iraq was already suffering from severe financial constraints before the outbreak of the war, adding that the limited non-oil revenue base is putting pressure on the state’s finances.

The Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, revealed during the Fund’s annual meetings in Bangkok earlier this month that Iraq had requested a new support program.

During those meetings, Georgieva praised the resilience of global economic growth despite the wars in Iran and Ukraine, but warned that the effects of conflicts vary greatly, with the most fragile economies suffering severe damage.

Since the outbreak of war in the Middle East on February 28, 2016, with US and Israeli strikes on Iran, Tehran has almost completely restricted maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, insisting that ships must pass through it via a designated route and sometimes targeting those attempting to pass without its coordination. In response, Washington has imposed a blockade on Iranian ports.

The Iraqi economy is heavily dependent on energy exports, most of which pass through this strait.

Iraq was facing severe financial pressures even before the outbreak of war, and the International Monetary Fund predicted this month that its economy would shrink by 16% this year.

Iraq’s last program with the International Monetary Fund ended in 2019, and it entails interest payments to the international institution amounting to about $428 million until 2030.

Shafaq.com

The central bank denies printing new currency and announces that the exchange rate gap has narrowed to 9%.

Central Bank Governor Nizar Nasser Hussein confirmed on Thursday that talk of printing new currency is inaccurate, noting that the difference between the official exchange rate and the parallel market rate has decreased from 24% previously to 9% currently.

The media office of the House of Representatives stated in a statement that the Parliamentary Investment and Development Committee, headed by the oldest member, MP Nahida Al-Daini, conducted a visit to the Central Bank of Iraq to discuss the repercussions of the change in the dollar exchange rate and its impact on the economic and investment reality, and the challenges facing investors and local companies.

The statement added that during the visit, the committee was briefed on the measures taken by the Central Bank to support the Iraqi economy, including supporting government and private banks to provide soft loans to citizens ranging in value between 5 million and 15 million dinars.

The statement quoted the Central Bank Governor as confirming “that there is no printing of currency,” explaining that the talk circulating about printing banknotes is inaccurate. He also pointed out that the difference between the official exchange rate and the parallel market rate has decreased from 24% to 9%.

For its part, the parliamentary committee stressed the need to reduce the effects of the exchange rate on the costs of implementing investment projects, the prices of raw materials and contractual obligations, as well as its repercussions on market stability and the purchasing power of citizens, calling for well-thought-out solutions that balance the requirements of monetary stability and the protection of economic and investment activity.

The committee stressed the importance of strengthening coordination between the Central Bank, government agencies and the banking sector, removing obstacles facing investors and facilitating banking financing procedures, in order to ensure the continuity of investment projects and not burden investors and citizens with additional burdens.

She explained that the stability of monetary policy and the clarity of banking procedures are a fundamental pillar for creating an attractive investment environment, stressing the continued monitoring of priority economic files and the pursuit of practical recommendations that contribute to supporting investment, protecting citizens’ interests and strengthening the national economy.

Burathanews.com