Factional weapons or “collapse”: Al-Zaydi’s government faces an impossible equation
The Italian ” Special Eurasia ” report highlighted Iraq’s transformation into a central arena for regional conflict, and painted a very pessimistic picture of the future of the Iraqi government under American pressure and Iranian influence. Dailynews reports
The report, translated by Shafaq News Agency, concluded that Baghdad is experiencing a state of political and security paralysis between Washington’s demands to disarm the factions, and the Iranian influence that is deeply rooted within Iraqi political, security and economic institutions.
The Italian report considered Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s demand to disarm the factions to be a strategic dilemma, because the government “does not have the military capability or sufficient political influence to carry this out without causing a widespread internal crisis.”
He pointed out that Washington has a financial pressure card through the American financial system and Iraqi accounts, while Tehran has countercards represented by the Strait of Hormuz and gas and electricity supplies.
He warned that Baghdad’s full compliance with US pressure could prompt Iran to use economic and energy tools to pressure the government, while rejecting US demands could lead to harsher sanctions or financial restrictions.
The report went on to say that attempting to disarm the factions by force could lead to a split in the military establishment, paralysis of parliament, and the fall of the government, due to the connection of some groups to political and economic networks within the state.
According to the Italian report, Iran is using Iraq as a strategic depth and an arena to absorb military pressures, and it may prefer a weak or paralyzed Iraqi government to one that is completely aligned with Washington.
He warned that cutting off US financial flows entirely could backfire, as it might push Iraq towards expanding non-dollar trade and relying more on the Iranian economy.
In conclusion, the report suggested that “if a diplomatic settlement is not reached,” the al-Zaidi government would face “the risks of political collapse, escalating internal conflict, and economic isolation” before the end of the year.
Shafaq.com