Expecting a record collapse in the toman, the Revolutionary Guards’ media attacks a “pessimistic” report by the Iranian Chamber of Commerce.
In a recent report, the Iranian Chamber of Commerce presented the worst-case scenario in the event of the activation of the “snapback” mechanism, predicting that the exchange rate would jump to 165,000 tomans and inflation would exceed 90% by the end of 2025.
However, the Tasnim news agency , affiliated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, attacked the report, warning that such forecasts could turn from a “warning tool” to a “tool of inflammatory intent,” sparking a wave of panic in the markets more than the facts on the ground reflect.
Shocking numbers and a bleak scenario
The report, translated by Shafaq News Agency, divided the economic outlook into three paths: optimistic, probable, and pessimistic. The outcome in all three is negative: an economic contraction ranging from -0.6% to -3.1%, and inflation ranging from 60% to 90%. However, the greatest focus was on the darkest scenario, which would raise the free exchange rate to historic levels of 165,000 tomans.
Economists believe that announcing such figures in an economy that is quickly affected by psychological expectations could push markets into a wave of monopoly and price hikes. “Mere talk of a currency collapse could translate directly into a real market collapse, even if no change in sanctions occurs,” one expert said, according to a report by the Iranian Tasnim News Agency.
The Chamber of Commerce likened the current situation to the beginning of the last decade when UN sanctions were reinstated. Many of the UN sanctions cited as a “potential threat” have not yet been fully lifted, such as restrictions on maritime insurance and the sale of dual-use goods.
Tasnim, on the other hand, points out that experience has proven that the heaviest pressure on Iran did not come from the Security Council, but rather from the US Treasury Department, which included central bank sanctions, isolation from the SWIFT system, and a ban on oil sales.
She added that these measures have tightened the noose far more than any international resolution, meaning that the UN’s snapback may be more symbolic than practical.
The Iranian agency’s report also highlights that “despite sanctions, Iranian oil exports have increased to approximately 1.7–1.8 million barrels per day, a figure unimaginable a decade ago. Changes in sales channels and adaptation to sanctions have made the economy more resilient than before.”
Shafaq.com