Government program and economic policies revive the dinar
In its third year of implementation, the government program continues to make steady progress toward achieving its economic goals, despite the complex challenges posed by regional and international realities, particularly regarding the threat of war, fluctuations in energy markets, and volatile global economic cycles.
However, national growth indicators remain evident across various infrastructure sectors, supported by remarkable levels of economic stability, most notably the annual inflation rate remaining below the 3 percent mark. This indicates the ability of economic policy to absorb shocks and manage resources relatively efficiently.
qualitative transformations
In this context, Dr. Mazhar Mohammed Saleh, the Prime Minister’s financial advisor, told Al-Sabah that the parallel currency market has witnessed a qualitative transformation over the past period. Previously, it was governed by “noisy patterns” that generated sudden price fluctuations. Today, it has become more stable and is gradually being driven by the official market.
Saleh attributes this shift to the effective coordination between fiscal, monetary, and trade policies, which contributed to the flow of accurate and well-thought-out information signals, enabling the market to shift from a state of volatility and speculation to a calmer trading environment more in line with the country’s economic reality.
Integrated procedures
Saleh adds that this positive shift is the result of a series of integrated measures that have contributed to narrowing the gap between the official and parallel dollar rates, most notably the strict legal ban on dollar use in domestic transactions, particularly in the real estate market, which is one of the most sensitive sectors.
He added, “The transition to a mechanism for financing foreign trade through global correspondent banks, rather than relying exclusively on the central bank’s window, has contributed to reducing compliance risks and decreasing reliance on the informal market.”
Another factor that has contributed to enhanced market stability, the advisor said, is the entry of small importers into the official dollar financing network, without the need for money exchange companies. This has facilitated their access to foreign currency at direct official exchange rates, especially since their trade represents approximately 60 percent of the private sector’s foreign trade.
Administrative facilities
Dr. Saleh points out that this transformation was achieved through administrative facilitation provided by the government and the reduction of bureaucratic loopholes that previously hindered import financing and implementation.
The financial advisor emphasized that the expanding use of electronic payment cards in foreign currency, particularly among travelers, has been an additional factor in reducing pressure on the cash dollar, given the availability of cash allocations at the official exchange rate through banking outlets located throughout airports, and with flexible and organized compliance mechanisms.
He pointed to the role played by cooperative societies, food baskets, and construction goods, which are imported in dollars at the official exchange rate of 1,320 dinars, in supporting the price stability policy. This has enabled the government to use trade as a tool to achieve monetary stability, as part of an integrated strategy for economic policies in implementing the government program.
Fluctuations in the US economy
In contrast, financial and economic expert Dr. Safwan Qusay pointed out that the Iraqi dinar, despite its relative resilience, remains vulnerable to the effects of global markets and fluctuations in the US economy. Speaking to Al-Sabah, he pointed out that the new customs restrictions imposed by the US administration on some imports have weakened exports from key countries such as China, Japan, the European Union, and Canada. This has led to a relative decline in the value of the US dollar globally, which opens the way for the Federal Reserve to consider reducing interest rates, which could negatively impact the dollar’s attractiveness as a reserve currency.
Qusay believes that the Iraqi market is often subsequently affected by these shifts, which may partly explain the recent decline in the dollar’s price in the informal market, due to the potential entry of cash dollars into Iraq via neighboring countries amid these changes.
strong bumpers
Qusay warns that the continued decline in the value of the dollar could pose future risks to the central bank’s reserves, especially with an increasing number of countries diversifying their reserves away from the US dollar and resorting to gold or other currencies. However, Qusay emphasized that Iraq still possesses strong buffers that protect it from these risks, most notably its massive dollar reserves at the central bank and its possession of more than 116 tons of gold, which is also witnessing a rise in value globally. He also points out that current oil prices remain at levels sufficient to ensure the stability of the dinar in the long term.
near.
Qusay believes that maintaining this stability requires the Central Bank to review its reserve management strategies and ensure they are not affected by dollar fluctuations. He also believes that it is necessary to accelerate steps to diversify the economy and control revenues and expenditures to avoid any potential repercussions of the dollar’s decline on the value of the Iraqi dinar.
Alsabaah.iq