Outlook upgrade could help push Iraq’s economic evolution to its next step
War-torn Iraq recently got an unexpected boost on its way to becoming an investment hot spot, which may take its next step sooner than conventional wisdom suggests.
Even as military forces wage a fierce offensive against ISIS, global ratings agency Fitch upgraded last month Iraq’s outlook to stable, based largely on the country’s improving public finances.
To be sure, Iraq’s B+ credit rating is still deeply entrenched in speculative, or junk territory. The low rating reflects what Fitch analysts called political risk and instability associated with the conflict-ridden country that’s “among the highest faced by any sovereign rated by Fitch.”
Yet as a marker for big institutional buyers like hedge funds and sovereign wealth arms, Fitch’s vote of confidence could mark the start of a broader shift among investors about Iraq’s long-term potential. The upgrade could be pivotal for a country still considered besieged, but considered by a handful of savvy market watchers to be a potential diamond in the rough.
“Some analysts say that investors believe that with solid oil reserves and other sectors to build upon, Iraq could have serious growth potential,” said Stephen Simonis Sr., chief currency consultant at online currency broker FXDD Global.
“Clearly this can be looked at from either side, as the willing investor will point out the huge risk/reward possibility as the upside is very enticing,” Simonis told CNBC. “The doubting investor will say the region remains too unstable and the situation remains far too volatile.”
Iraq remains a country to approach with caution, analysts say, roiled by an ISIS insurgency and civil strife. Yet Fitch’s revised outlook could be a green light for buyers of Iraq’s assets, especially at a time when smaller institutional and private investors are seeking long-term opportunities.
In fact, Iraq’s stock market has already been running with at full steam since at least last year, with investors discounting an end to a bloody conflict that’s lasted since the 2003 invasion. Some are looking ahead to the reallocation of military spending and the potential boost to infrastructure spending and economic revival.
While foreigners have been mostly absent from the equity market for the month of March, some are already looking for signs that the Fitch decision could reverse this dynamic.
“Overall, foreign interest in Iraq continues to go through a transformational change in the eyes of global institutional investors,” Ahmed Tabaqchali, chief investment officer of Asia Frontier Capitals Iraq Fund, told CNBC.
In fact, Iraq’s sovereign risk premium has narrowed in an environment of rising yields, just after the country tapped capital markets with a second $1 billion bond offering.
“It seems logical to conclude that this implies favorable interest in Iraq and that it would likely be followed by foreign direct investment and eventually by equity inflows,” Tabaqchali said.
Although Iraq joined other OPEC members in a production cut — a challenge for the country’s oil-reliant economy — some analysts believe the oil sector is managing to stay afloat in an environment of lower prices.
Read more: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/30/outlook-upgrade-could-help-push-iraqs-economic-evolution-to-its-next-step.html
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The World Bank confirms its support for Iraq’s economic reforms and development through an integrated financial management system
The World Bank on Saturday confirmed its support for Iraq’s economic reforms and development through an integrated financial management system, while welcoming the steps taken by the Iraqi government in the field of resource management and the crystallization of reform visions .
The Ministry of Finance said in a statement issued on the sidelines of a joint meeting between an Iraqi delegation headed by Finance Minister Abdul Razzaq al-Issa and in the presence of Prime Minister’s Advisor appearance of Mohammed Saleh and a number of officials of the Ministry of Finance and the World Bank team and representatives in Baghdad in the spring meetings of the IMF and the World Bank in Washington, , “Appointed Iraq News” that “representatives of the World Bank indicated that economic reforms are a major necessity to reach an integrated system to manage the financial process of the state at the federal and local level .”
The ministry added that “the participants explained that the percentage of the task achieved by Iraqi institutions in this area, which gives the appropriate room for the World Bank to support the budget and reconstruction projects within the limits of time to achieve its objectives required .”
“The World Bank welcomed the steps of the Iraqi government in the field of resource management and crystallization of reform visions in coordination with international financial organizations and institutions .”
Finance Minister Abdul Razzaq al-Issa said on Friday that the World Bank has indicated its readiness to allocate nine million dollars to support the investment of associated gas in Iraq. Finished
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World Bank: Iraq one of the most important countries in the region and we will support it to overcome the crisis
The World Bank said Monday that Iraq is the most important countries of the region and to continue support to overcome the crisis.
World Bank Vice President for Middle East and North Africa, Hafez Ghanem, during his meeting with the Iraqi delegation headed by Finance Minister Abdul Razzaq agency alessa in the spring meetings in Washington, that “the World Bank is committed to Iraq to provide the financial requirements imposed by the reconstruction of the liberated areas”.
The World Bank Group said that “reconstruction of those areas and accelerate implementation steps established for continued support in light of what you need and what the Iraqi Government desperately needs to diagnose him.
The Iraqi delegation price cycle, the Bank and the Fund’s position in support of Iraq and the Iraqi Government and stressed its willingness to address the ERW and scientific programmes for the next phase of reconstruction begins and ends with systems of education, job creation and development of technical skills. ”
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“FaceBook LIVE” session from Friday w/BGG
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BGG (Dinar Guru) – The UN Chapter 7 Charter is still in place and is not going anywhere…they’re going to do what they are going to do with their currency’s value…Chapter 7 doesn’t matter at all…all of the sanctions have been removed but the Charter is still there so that we…the U.S…can move troops around at will and that includes all other UN partner nations that matter.
Read More: http://www.dinarupdates.com/observer/
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Iraq intends to sell two million barrels of oil in Dubai
Trade sources said the world oil market, that Iraq intends to sell two million barrels of Basra light crude through bidding Dubai Mercantile Exchange.
The sources said that “the Iraqi oil marketing company SOMO notified buyers of long term it plans to sell two million barrels of Basra light crude download June through a tender in Dubai.
They said it would be “the first time ever which sold raw Basra via Dubai.
“Static-oriented shipment to Asia, it will not accept any offers do not include well above the official selling price for ore Basra lightweight in June.”
Read More: http://www.dinarupdates.com/showthread.php?48385-Iraq-intends-to-sell-two-million-barrels-of-oil-in-Dubai
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Integrity is an absolute virtue. – Cullen Hightower
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International Monetary Fund go back on his pledge to fight against economic protectionism
Drop the leaders of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank pledge to fight trade protectionism of the final note to their meetings in the spring.
The IMF said in a statement obtained by the news that the economy “Member States” shall cooperate together in order to reduce the current account imbalances in international trade and, through appropriate policies.
This comes in while searching the Donald Trump ways to reduce trade deficits in the United States.
The Administration has threatened to impose tariffs on countries that have a trade surplus with the United States, including China and Germany under the “America first” policy that seeks to force management application. “Reciprocal trade.”
The IMF warned earlier this week that protectionist policies seriously impede efforts to improve global growth.
But us Treasury Minister Stephen mnochin said the meeting in Washington that President trump “trade agreements and believes in free trade.”
He added: “what this means is that our markets are open, and there must be reciprocal nature of other markets should be open, too.”
He called on the IMF to intensify its supervision on foreign exchange rates for Member States.
In the meantime, try the Mexican Central Bank President Agustin Carstens, who heads the Steering Committee of the International Monetary Fund, minimizing the importance of the Fund abandoned his pledge on protectionism, saying that the term “vague”.
He added: “instead of talking too much about the meaning of this concept, we were able to put this (concept) in a positive and constructive.”
The development came after she finished leading industrial Nations G20 for a two-day meeting in last March without renewing the long-standing commitment to promote free trade.
They dropped their pledge against protectionism after opposition from the United States.
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Iraq gets foreign aircraft air traffic across airspace
The Transport Ministry announced Monday, air traffic recovery for foreign aircraft over Iraq atmosphere starting next Thursday.
The Ministry statement said, “the economy news received a copy,” happy that the opening of new air routes human haemorrhage passing through our airspace for the first time in 2014 suspension unjust us FAA organization, which was considered taboo and serious international organized them into war zones. ”
He explained, “would be next Thursday is scheduled to retrieve air traffic to foreign aircraft in transit over the skies of Iraq.”
The statement said that the Ministry will set up a party to celebrate at 10 a.m. next Tuesday, at Baghdad International Airport near VIP business lounge.
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Crude oil rises amid optimism about a commitment to cut output
Trend Press / Agencies Oil prices rose in European trading on Thursday, rebounding from a six-week low amid optimism that OPEC will expand its current deal with non-OPEC members to cut output beyond June in an attempt to rebalance the market.
“We expect a global agreement to cut oil supplies to be extended beyond June, supported by greater compliance by non-Opec producers,” Reuters quoted Kuwait’s Oil Minister as saying.
In November last year, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers, including Russia, agreed to cut production by 1.8 million bpd between January and June.
A joint committee of ministers of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC members will meet in late April to make a recommendation on the fate of the treaty. The final decision on whether to extend the deal after June will be made by the oil organization on May 25.
London Brent crude for June delivery rose 38 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $ 53.31 a barrel, after falling $ 1.96 in the previous session.
Elsewhere, crude for June delivery rose 34 cents to $ 51.18 a barrel.
Oil has continued to rise in a familiar range since the beginning of the year amid concern that a continued recovery in US shale production and an increase in US inventories could hamper the efforts of other major producers to rebalance global supply and demand for oil.
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From – Apr 7th
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DayTrader, a News Researcher for DinarUpdates.com, recently had some interesting commentary.
Here are his thoughts:
Article 140 is much more complex than many realize. If you read Article 140 in the Iraq constitution, it refers to Article 58 of the Law of Administration for the State of Iraq for the Transitional Period that outlines all the steps that must be completed. This was a document constructed by Paul Bremmer to be used until a permanent constitution could be developed and ratified by Iraq. Article 58 states:
Article 58.
(A) The Iraqi Transitional Government, and especially the Iraqi Property Claims Commission and other relevant bodies, shall act expeditiously to take measures to remedy the injustice caused by the previous regime’s practices in altering the demographic character of certain regions, including Kirkuk, by deporting and expelling individuals from their places of residence, forcing migration in and out of the region, settling individuals alien to the region, depriving the inhabitants of work, and correcting nationality. To remedy this injustice, the Iraqi Transitional Government shall take the following steps:
(1) With regard to residents who were deported, expelled, or who emigrated; it shall, in accordance with the statute of the Iraqi Property Claims Commission and other measures within the law, within a reasonable period of time, restore the residents to their homes and property, or, where this is unfeasible, shall provide just compensation.
(2) With regard to the individuals newly introduced to specific regions and territories, it shall act in accordance with Article 10 of the Iraqi Property Claims Commission statute to ensure that such individuals may be resettled, may receive compensation from the state, may receive new land from the state near their residence in the governorate from which they came, or may receive compensation for the cost of moving to such areas.
(3) With regard to persons deprived of employment or other means of support in order to force migration out of their regions and territories, it shall promote new employment opportunities in the regions and territories.
(4) With regard to nationality correction, it shall repeal all relevant decrees and shall permit affected persons the right to determine their own national identity and ethnic affiliation free from coercion and duress.
(B) The previous regime also manipulated and changed administrative boundaries for political ends. The Presidency Council of the Iraqi Transitional Government shall make recommendations to the National Assembly on remedying these unjust changes in the permanent constitution. In the event the Presidency Council is unable to agree unanimously on a set of recommendations, it shall unanimously appoint a neutral arbitrator to examine the issue and make recommendations. In the event the Presidency Council is unable to agree on an arbitrator, it shall request the Secretary General of the United Nations to appoint a distinguished international person to be the arbitrator.
(C) The permanent resolution of disputed territories, including Kirkuk, shall be deferred until after these measures are completed, a fair and transparent census has been conducted and the permanent constitution has been ratified. This resolution shall be consistent with the principle of justice, taking into account the will of the people of those territories.
The challenge has always been how to implement the required changes. Those steps coupled with the fact that some of the people that Saddam Hussein forced out and those Sunnis that he brought in are no longer living. The resolution will have to involve their children, plus the process will also be challenged in identifying and finding all these families. This is not a quick fix. IMO that is why Abadi gave the responsibility to create an implementation plan to Barzani and the governor of the Kirkuk province. All of that said, I don’t believe that the implementation of Article 140 is tied to the revaluation of Iraq’s currency. I haven’t found any reference to Article 140 in any of the UN resolutions or SBA documents between the IMF, CBI and GOI.
Read more: http://www.dinarupdates.com/showthread.php?48133-Commentary-from-DayTrader
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tman23 (Dinar Guru) – Coincidental…? You all should be very interested and excited…chatter regarding 4/21 and launching or beginning of something new with in IMF etc…Then i read this…Newshound Guru Stryker Article: “Iraq resumes next Friday talks with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank“. What makes this so interesting is that everyone is meeting in Washington after they already had 12 day meeting in Amman just last month. Then I saw Legarde in an interview…will be meeting Mnunchin for the first time…Wanna know the date of the meeting …GUESS! Friday…4/21. [post 1 of 2….stay tuned]
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Director of the Issuance Department of the Central Bank: Printed currency volume exceeds 11 billion and 600 million dinars
Most of the Iraqi Central Bank steps are subject to political and legal environment of the country , especially in regard to the deletion of zeros that counted specialists in the earlier trend sensitive and dangerous may still be , but the central remains the most important institution in terms of the need to adjust the financial management in light of the financial crisis experienced by the the Iraqi economy, which must have to deal with dilemmas , whether with regard to the citizen or the work of the central bank itself.
Questions concerning important files posed (range) in this meeting , the director of the release and the Treasury in the Central Bank Aa’bas behind, and with being answered by briefly he pointed out the most important points that showed that the currency is good for circulation deposited Central has exceeded one billion and a quarter of a million dinars an amount that is not a little if they were compensated by the stored banknotes at the bank , as some believe, at the time between the printed currency size has exceeded the “11 billion and 600 million dinars, he urged citizens on the need not to keep large amounts in homes or buried in the ground , the fact that the process of replacing in the event expose Dt to burn or damage costs the central administrative and financial burdens, stressing that the counterfeit currency rate is still within the internationally accepted borders, with the central quest to carry out an information campaign to educate the public on how to distinguish between the original currency and Almzorh.oicol behind on a question about the possibility of having higher versions of a class (50000 ) dinars?
– No at present intention to issue a higher class category (50000) dinars.
* What about the subject of the deletion of zeros and the reason for the delay?
– the decision on the deletion of zeros cannot be taken in isolation from the political and legal environment in the country under conditions the security situation as a result of terrorist acts and exit from the provinces outside the control of the state for the years 2014, 2015, 2016 which prevents certainly to wait in the implementation of this project, in addition to that this must be done in coordination with all state departments and the private sector, where it should be followed by changing the paragraphs contained in the various laws, which include a reference to fines or lump – sum collection of fees, must also change the financial and statistical records in order to conform with the project process the deletion of zeros. On the other hand, the technical preparations are underway by us.
* How is the cost of the annual replacement and replacement of damaged currency?
– First , there is no substitution instead of a damaged annually, as the bank instead seeks to issue new papers for security specifications developed, so the cost is reduced in this way it is the cost of issuing new banknotes specifications better used at the same time damaged to the replacement of currency from the previous editions .
We seek to carry out an information campaign to distinguish between original and counterfeit currency
* How discovered the counterfeit currency of the size?
– The Central Bank of Iraq resorted to the use of machines to sophisticated counting and sorting which can detect counterfeit currency, in addition to banks guide using modern techniques in the currency examination, but the problem is not doing shopkeepers enough efforts to use the machines to check the currency, as the bank seeks to campaign media to sensitize the public on how to distinguish between the original currency and counterfeit currency by issuing a booklet definitions and (posters) for this purpose and will be distributed to banks in major shopping malls, and in all cases, the counterfeit currency rate is still within the internationally accepted borders , where even T ratio (0.000025) (Twenty – five million paper sheet).
* What currency damaged by fire or poor storage of citizens compensation mechanisms?
– While we hope the citizens do not keep large amounts in homes or buried in the ground, and to do instead in the deposit with the banks, as the replacement of the burnt currency process or damaged it costs the central bank financial burdens and administrative Colva unwarranted, however the bank is to receive citizens whose savings in Iraqi currency to fire accidents provided that they are documented by the civil Defense Department and be sourced from the project, either in terms of currency (buried) are sufficiency statement on the sources of these funds, and in this regard we call on citizens not to accept the mediation of any hand to Astb The Iraqi currency and that this bank does not receive any commission for its replacement.
We applied security methods with modern technology advanced counting and sorting currency
* What future plans for the central bank currency and print?
– Iraqi Central Bank seeks to keep pace with the evolution of printing currency and modern technologies both in currency printing or counting devices and sorting the currency where they are constantly adding new security features in addition to the acquisition of advanced machines counting and sorting currency, was dispensed with final counting and manual screening process.
* How much is the size of the torn currency and how much of the size of the printed currency?
– The number of banknotes unfit for circulation deposited with this bank (1,277,049,543) cash paper of various categories, where they are compensated from the stored banknotes have this bank, as the number of printed banknotes (11,615,265,154) cash paper of various categories.
Iraqi Dinar/Dollar auction 04-24-17 (most recent listing)
Currency Auctions Announcement No. 3428
This daily currency auction was held in the Central Bank of Iraq on the 04-24-2017
| DETAILS | NOTES |
| Number of banks | 37 |
| Number of remittance companies | 11 |
| Amount sold at auction price (US$) | 155,485,508 |
| Amount purchased at Auction price (US$) | —– |
| Total offers for buying (US$) | 155,485,508 |
| Total offers for selling (US$) | —– |
The results were as follows:
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The following .PDF is the review by RCookie of the IMF board’s publishing of Iraq’s SBA (excellent info) – He would have wanted you all to have it.. posting the whole .PDF was the only way to get it on here. Enjoy. BGG
Robert Cook CSW CSS CBP CST CTC
Iraq:
IMF EXECUTIVE BOARD COMPLETES FIRST REVIEW IRAQ’S STAND-BY ARRANGEMENT (45 pages…)
| CURRENCY | CODE | SELL | BUY |
| US dollar | USD | 1184.000 | 1182.000 |
| Euro | EUR | 1272.208 | 1271.572 |
| British pound | GBP | 1515.698 | 1514.940 |
| Canadian dollar | CAD | 878.208 | 877.769 |
| Swiss franc | CHF | 1188.516 | 1187.922 |
| Swedish krona | SEK | 132.364 | 132.298 |
| Norwegian krone | NOK | 138.103 | 138.034 |
| Danish krone | DKK | 171.039 | 170.953 |
| Japanese yen | JPY | 10.867 | 10.862 |
| Special Drawing Rights |
SDR | 1616.645 | 1615.837 |