{Baghdad: Al Furat News} The Presidency of the Parliament invited the parliamentarians to enter the hall to start a session of granting confidence to Mustafa Al-Kazemi’s government.
Parliament is scheduled to hold a special session this evening to vote on Al-Kazemi’s booth.
Ammar Al-Masoudi has ended
Dinar News The CBI is reporting a change in the official market rate for the dinar! This could be significant. As you know, after a few weeks hiatus, the CBI began to update the dinar market rate this week. It’s been out of compliance with the IMF 2% rule on these updates. Today’s CBI market rate update is for April 27th – it’s showing a 100 point change to 1124. This is a STRONGER rate than the official CBI rate of 1190 (remember we want these numbers to go down NOT up). We’re not sure if this is this a simple typo mistake or if this is real. If it’s real, it’s significant – the market rate is determined by demand in the Iraqi market and this shows demand is growing for the dinar. Stay tuned to this interesting news!!
Baghdad – Mawazine News, Parliamentary sources suggested, on Wednesday, the attendance of 200 deputies of the session giving confidence to the government booth to designate Mustafa Al-Kazemi.
The sources told Mawazine News that “about 200 deputies will attend the voting session to give confidence to the new cabin, in light of the presence of other deputies outside the country and their inability to return due to travel restrictions linked to the Corona virus.”
Informed sources revealed earlier, in an interview with “Mawazine News”, that the agreement reached by the meeting at the home of the President of the Alliance, Hadi al-Amiri, was accepted by the partners, paving the way towards passing the ministerial and agreeing to vote on it next Thursday.
She indicated that after the breakfast, voting will take place to ensure the quorum due to the blessed month of Ramadan.
The sources pointed out that Al-Kazemi signed his government curriculum tonight and that he will be presented to the media before the vote and that he will send the names of his ministerial team tomorrow to Parliament. Ended 29 / A
The government’s official media revealed today, Wednesday, that Prime Minister-designate Mustafa Al-Kazimi obtained the “green light” from the Shiite forces to proceed with presenting his government program and present his cabinet in Parliament.
In a report published today, Wednesday, the official newspaper in the country dealt with the developments of the file of the Cabinet of the Prime Minister-designate Mustafa Al-Kazemi , talking about his progress and described it as “good.”
And the newspaper “Al-Sabah”, quoting representative sources, indicated that Al-Kazimi “received a green light to present his government program, paving the way for his cabinet to be presented to Parliament.”
The newspaper sources confirmed that Al-Kazemi has come a long way with understandings regarding the ministerial cabinet, explaining that the Shiite blocs gave him the green light to present his program and the cabinet to Parliament and the request for a special confidence-granting session early next week.
And press reports during the past few days deal with the delay and blockage in the crisis that Al-Kazemi went to form his government, after disputes ravaged the political blocs, especially the Shiites, after the taxpayer presented the names of the candidates for his cabinet.
On April 9, President Barham Salih commissioned the head of the Iraqi Intelligence Service, Mustafa al- Kazimi, to form the government, the third figure to be assigned in the last ten weeks to form a government to replace the government of Abdul-Mahdi , who resigned last year after months of protests.
Under the current economic circumstances, coupled with the government’s confusion in managing iraq’s monetary and financial policies, the devaluation of the currency (devaluation) of the Iraqi dinar against the U.S. dollar and other currencies has emerged deliberately and deliberately, noting that this is different from the change in the exchange rate that is subject to the supply and demand process in the currency markets.
I saw a while ago a study prepared by the Central Bank on this subject and after careful consideration of this matter and many discussions with experts and specialists and i think iraq needs such economic solutions at the present time I thought that the clearest realistic point of view might contribute to the development of a certain opinion among the decision makers in this regard. In normal circumstances, this type of solution must be the last medicine, but unfortunately the mismanagement of the country’s economy, the absence of economic doctrine, the continued dependence on oil as a single source and the exploitation of the economy as an electoral tool led to a collapse in the economy as the price of oil declined, and the failure of successive governments to support the national industrial and agricultural product prompted specialists to resort to this kind of thinking. I may agree with the study conducted by the Central Bank on many points that talk about the need to find economic solutions other than the devaluation of the Iraqi dinar, but through experience and extrapolation of the Iraqi political situation, I do not see in sight any ability of the solution and contract owners to bring about a radical economic change due to the lack of a real understanding of the problem in Iraq and look at it from a single perspective that may be factional, partisan or personal, so my article will focus on the discussion of the devaluation of the local currency vis-à-vis currencies.
Foreign and respond to factors that affect or are associated with the reduction process. For the purpose of taking note of the subject in all respects, the factors associated with this reduction, the most important of which are:
First: Balance of payments
I don’t think That Iraq has a strong position in the balance of payments because Iraq’s exports are only 99 percent oil, and if we raise or eliminate the value of the oil exported and calculate the balance of payments without it, Iraq’s position will be very negative. It is worth mentioning that the central bank’s study on the balance of payments surplus ratio, estimated at 5.75 percent of GDP for 2019, is primarily in terms of including the balance of oil exports or changing this balance by changing world oil prices and on the other hand discussing a real and important question of how to calculate iraq’s GDP? What is the value of oil exports? This question also applies to the ratio ofThe foreign reserves available in Iraq, which is estimated at $70 billion, which represents 30 percent of GDP according to the study, here is the same problem, which is how to calculate the gdp, and therefore how to calculate the adequacy of reserves by IMF or other traditional measures, it is clear that there is a deficit in the balance of payments because our balance of payments depends very largely on oil and therefore the deficit or surplus or strong position depends on the price of oil globally and the amount of production and the amount of oil exported from Iraq, so The study that gave metrics for 2019 is totally different from the current reality of the year 2020 Because of the fall in oil prices and here I agree with a statement in the central bank study that (when the balance of payments deficit is a reason for resorting to a devaluation of the local currency) this is not the case for Iraq in 2019 but it applies exactly to Iraq in 2020.
Second: Consumer Prices
There may be an impact on the devaluation of the Iraqi dinar in consumer prices, but there are many positive aspects in this context that can be taken advantage of and turn this challenge into a real opportunity to build an economic doctrine that fits the situation. current political and social.
The percentage of imports in Iraq is very large and the annual rate of hard currency that comes out of the country for the purpose of importing is estimated at $48 billion per year and if the price of the dinar is reduced, these imported items will be worth more expensive than their current value in the local market, which will lead to a decrease in demand in the local market, and here is the link of the Persians to refute all the claims that expect high living due to the devaluation of the Iraqi dinar because this The reduction must be accompanied by a set of economic measures that are supportive of it, the most important of which is the control of the prices of food and fuel, while the rest of the consumables that are imported, which are factors of destruction of the country’s economy, can be addressed and accept a certain increase in the prices of some unnecessary luxury items.
Therefore, there must be packages in the application of this reduction in order to encourage the national product and it is possible to give a simple example in this context if there is a material imported from the neighboring countries and the value of this material is only one dollar, i.e. it is currently worth 1200 Iraqi dinars and the cost of producing local raw materials may cost the owner The Iraqi factory 1300 Iraqi dinars so the local product can not compete with the imported product at a price because of the relatively high value of the dinar, but if the value of this material is one dollar at the exchange rate of 1500 Iraqi dinars and the value of the local product for the same article 1300 Iraqi dinars will be the local product will be cheaper than the importer at local value and thus this will encourage the owners of factories or farms to produce locally labor and run the cycle of the overall economy again, so this reduction will have a role Significant support for local product, it has been noted that the central bank study talked about the availability of local products as an alternative and here we say that the base The egg and the chicken must end in Iraq, meaning are we working in a local industry to stop imports or to stop imports in order to encourage national production?
I think it is time to break this rule and the state to put an end to imports in order to encourage production and because capital is cowardly and factory owners will not risk their money in order to provide a material that has no market or no start or a competing foreign product at a lower price and the state has to be firm and codify imports so that manufacturers can produce and make the domestic product competitive, it is worth noting that there is a specific period of time when some products are less available in the market, but I think that the national product is less available in the market, but I think the national product is less available. Soon it will fill the void and we will begin a new phase of the Iraqi economy.
Third: Level of inflation
Iraq currently does not suffer any rise in the level of basic inflation, so the effect of the devaluation of the currency in the level of base inflation will be limited in the sense that if we reduce the currency by 30 percent the prices of some luxury items will increase by 12 percent and this price increase can be addressed by moving the economy even if we have to increase nominal salaries and move the economy by injecting cash in the street to move some industrial, agricultural and construction sectors.
Fourth: Increased economic growth and trade
The central bank’s study on the impact of devaluation on increased trade growth showed that the relationship between devaluation, trade deficit and national economic stimulus is conditional and specific to factors such as:
Among them are:
(a) The ability of national technologically, financially or humanly productive capacity to manufacture the same goods imported from abroad at similar quality at competitive prices and to replace national products.
(b) The extent to which the price flexibility of exports and imports means that demand for exports and imports responds to the change in prices resulting from the change in the value of the currency.
I think that Iraq can achieve a return from this reduction in this framework, which means the framework of growth and trade because Iraq’s exports are limited to crude oil, the devaluation of its currency may increase its exports of other materials that encourage the national product, whether industrial or agricultural, to increase its production and specifically some Exportable materials in order to have new non-oil dollar incomes can be used as a difficult currency to increase the country’s GDP, and this reduction will increase and strengthen local Iraqi industries to be able to compensate imports, so the devaluation of the Iraqi dinar will reduce a large proportion of imports and preserve the hard currency coming from the sale of oil inside Iraq and turn these amounts instead of taking it out of the country by auctioning the currency to pump it into the domestic market to stimulate the economy, which may be affected by the banks. That works at the auction of the currency and behind it. Fifth: The effects of the reduction in fragile social groups
It is also known that the number of people who depend on the government for their incomes of employees, retirees and those covered by the social protection network is about 6 million citizens, and if we take the rate of five members per family, 30 million citizens are totally dependent on government support for their income, which represents 75 percent of the Iraqi population. The negative effects of this reduction in the purchasing power of this group are limited because the reduction measures will have measures to support the ration card, an increase in minimum job grades and a social welfare network grant.
At the same time, the state should act as a food merchant in the sense of importing or supplied food from Local production is stored and pushed to market at any time there is a deliberate price hike or a certain monopolistic process, so there will be food security for these fragile groups and the state will also work to support fuel and medicine and direct the general budget to ration, medicine, water sterilization and infrastructure.
As for other luxury goods, it is not bad to accept the cost of some non-essential items such as mobile phone by 12% or the rise in the price of perfumes, for example 12 percent, this effect is relative in the face of building a strong economy for the state.
On the other hand, I do not think that this reduction leads to an increase in government expenditures in general, but it may lead to an increase in ration card expenditures, which do not represent 3 percent of the country’s total budget and at the same time benefit from an increase in revenues in Iraqi dinars in other operating and investment expenditures of up to 25 percent, such as if the dollar becomes 1,500 Iraqi dinars.
At the same time, this reduction will have positive effects on the remittances of expatriate citizens from abroad to their families so that the value of the hard currency transferred into Iraq is greater than the current value and this will address the situation of a particular group in the face of potential relative high prices.
Sixth: The impact of the reduction on public debt
Iraq’s foreign currency debt amounts to about $23 billion (excluding pre-2003 outstanding debt of $41 billion) and domestic debt in dinar currency is in the range of 40 trillion Iraqi dinars, including treasury transfers and bonds, and since 95 percent of the general budget depends on imports of oil sold in dollars, foreign debt will not be adversely affected by the devaluation of the Iraqi dinar due to be paid in U.S. dollars.Domestic or domestic debt will certainly have a positive impact on the state, as the value of domestic debt against the petroleum dollar, if the value of domestic debt is 40 trillion dollars is currently worth approximately $33 billion, it will be around $26 billion if the dinar depreciates by 25 percent, so the state’s profit is about $7 billion, which indicates that the devaluation has a positive impact on public debt and thus strengthens the country’s economy without affecting the country’s external debt without affecting the country’s external debt.
Therefore, there will be no negative impact on the Iraqi situation in the international community as a result of this devaluation of the local currency.
Seventh: The impact of the reduction in confidence in the national currency
I do not believe (in my personal opinion) that this reduction in the value of the Iraqi dinar will affect the confidence of the world markets and economies in the Iraqi local currency because this planned reduction should be accompanied by a set of economic decisions that support this reduction and reduce its impact both on the domestic and global economy in Iraqi currency and the most important of these reforms is to control the expected inflation as we have pointed out through control of food, fuel and medicine, the pressures of demand on the dollar may not escalate, but on the contrary can be the local counterpart.
For the dollar unit more than ever before, the process turns into a sale. The dollar and trying to hold the local currency, especially if we raise interest rates on deposits in local currency as a structural measure that should accompany the devaluation, thereby easing the pressure on the exchange rate of the dollar.
The central bank study indicated the stability of the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar for a number of years and in this context I think that this stability is not real but is pressure on the dollar price by the monetary policy of the country and therefore this stability gave negative returns on the Iraqi economy so stability can remain but on another exchange rate less valuable than the current rate.
If we note that the Lebanese experience lasted for decades on the exchange rate of 1500 is stable but on a real price for the Lebanese dinar while it is believed that the price of the Iraqi dinar on its current stability for the past years was not a real price but was a price engineered by those responsible for the monetary and financial policy of the country, I mean here the central bank and the setting of the exchange rate in the annual general budget by the government and the finance committee in the Iraqi parliament.
Eighth: Monetary and fiscal policy
Before we go into the details of this factor, we must answer the following question: Do we expect Iraq to have a political capacity to manage monetary and fiscal policy in the face of pressures that may result from the devaluation of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar unit?
What determines this is the strength of the political administration in the country and the understanding of the political forces the reality of the problem, the instruments of monetary policy, such as the interest rate, the discount rate, the open market operations, etc. It can be controlled by the coordination between the owner of the Iraqi money, which is the Ministry of Finance and between the governor of this money, which is the central bank and the cabinet is the winner and the government in bringing the views between the owner and the governor, but the fiscal policy must the government and parliament together control expenditures and work to increase revenues (and already many as others talked about how to increase revenues) in order to adjust appropriately the monetary bloc in order to reduce the effects of inflation on the citizen.
We believe that the pessimistic outlook of financial and monetary management in Iraq must change or the situation will remain the same, yes, there is a major failure in the management of these two files, but everything has an end and I think it is time to end the failure of monetary and fiscal policy.
Ninth: The impact of the devaluation of the dinar in the general budget
The general budget is revenues and expenditures, and since the main source of revenue for Iraq is oil sold in dollars, it will certainly increase the reduction of the Iraqi dinar from revenues by the reduction in the dinar price, assuming that when the price of one dollar is 1,500 dinars instead of 1,200 dinars instead of 1,200 dinars, every billion dollars of oil revenues will be worth one trillion and a half trillion dinars for one trillion and 200 billion dinars at the current exchange rate.
Here is to the central bank’s report and discussion again, stating that the reduction will see an increase in expenditures due to the following points:Government import of goods and services
This is a payoff because, as we said earlier, the government should be the first to reduce imports and rely on domestic products under any circumstances and this is an opportunity to create a local economy and increase gdp by increasing agricultural and industrial production and reducing imports.
-2 Repayment of interest on external debt
We have already mentioned in this paper that external debt will not be affected by the devaluation of the dollar, but that domestic debt will be reduced in value relative to the petroleum dollar.
Investments and external contributions
This is not a significant percentage and it is also in dollars and we are our resources in dollars so this is also a payoff. Payment of oil-related investments
Everyone knows that paying off the oil companies’ dues is in my eyes with oil, so the dollar or the dinar has nothing to do with it.
5- Ration card
I do not agree with the report of the Central Bank, which stated that most of the supplies of the ration card are import, the ration card that must be developed currently depends on four main materials, namely rice, flour, oil, sugar, three of which are flour, oil and sugar are purchased locally, so the devaluation of the dinar will save money for the ration card when purchasing these items and the only material imported is rice, and with the same logic that we spoke with in this article, the oil dollar will not be affected because Iraq sells oil in dollars and imports rice. Overall, the devaluation of the dinar will affect the ration card.
Social protection salaries
If the dinar is reduced, the government should increase social protection salaries at the same rate as the projected inflation rate of 12 percent. Thus, we remove the potential impact of inflation on the socially vulnerable groups.
Conclusions:
Ultimately, a gradual devaluation of the dinar will have positive effects on the country’s economy, which can be benefited from it and negative measures must be taken to avoid in order for the gross domestic product (GDP) to be positive for the national economy and to avoid the expected economic shake-up.
The positives are:
1. Promoting local agricultural and industrial products.
2. Moving the country’s micro-economies.
3. Employment of labour and absorption of unemployment.
Increasing budget revenues and reducing import expenditures.
The government must take a series of measures in parallel with this reduction:
1- Stop the currency auction to maintain hard currency inside the country and that the dollar and other foreign currencies are sold and traded directly in the currency markets or through the stock market, in order to get a real price for the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar, and to be the guarantor of prices is the value of the reserves available to the Central Bank of Iraq of hard currency.
2. Develop an import platform, stop some imports, control customs ports, support the tax system and exempt the domestic product from income tax for two years.
3- Building the budget on a fixed oil price for the operational and moving budget for the investment budget, directing the budget for salaries and purchasing rationand medicines, sterilizing water and the educational process only.
4. Postponing the dues of oil companies or paying them in kind outside opec’s quota.
5. Selling oil coupons locally, at the prevailing price now, and buying them a year later at the prevailing price.
6. 10% increase in nominal salaries, review of high allocations for social justice and 12 percent increase in social protection network salaries
7. The State imports commercial food stuff to the markets and pumps them into the ration programme in the event of high prices. Activating the role of economic security and the entry of competent government agencies to control the monetary rhythm in the currency market and food markets.
8. Fuel support for transport and factories and high relative importance to industries Food.
9. Pumping a hard currency to the drainage markets to maintain a price level for the Iraqi dinar prevents the price from falling by more than 30 percent in two years.
10. The Ministry of Finance issued electronic dinars for the purpose of collecting government revenues and due fees and what distinguishes them as non-tradable in the markets as criticism, thus reducing corruption in this aspect, as well as the state’s knowledge of the value of such imports quickly, to be issued by a government bank and not through private companies. In conclusion, such a measure needs a courageous decision from statesmen who are able to manage a stage in which the world in general and Iraq in particular are going through, statesmen who lead society and run state institutions professionally without paying attention to partisan, factional or electoral interests, but putting iraq’s interest first.
*Member of the Finance Committee
Baghdad – Mawazine News: Prime Minister-designate Mustafa Al-Kazemi confirmed today, Friday, his keenness to develop relations with Kuwait in all fields.
The Prime Minister’s Office said in a statement, “Mawazine News” received, a copy of it, that “the Prime Minister-designate Mustafa Al-Kazemi received a phone call from the Prime Minister of the State of Kuwait Sheikh Sabah Khalid Al-Hamad Al-Sabah.”
He added, “Al-Sabah congratulated Al-Kazemi on the occasion of the blessed month of Ramadan, wishing him success in forming the new Iraqi government.”
The Kuwaiti Prime Minister, according to the statement, expressed his aspiration to visit Iraq as soon as possible.
For his part, Al-Kazemi expressed his thanks to the head of the Kuwaiti government, congratulating the brotherly Kuwaiti people on the arrival of the blessed month of Ramadan.
Al-Kazemi praised “the positions of the State of Kuwait in support of Iraq, its security and stability, confirming its keenness to develop relations between the two brotherly countries in all fields.” End / 29 BC
MawazineNews.net
Shafaq News / The Iraqi Federal Government and the Kurdistan Regional Government are close to turning the page on their differences over the oil file, which is one of the outstanding issues for many years, but both sides are heading to conclude a new agreement to invest gas in fields in the region.
The first steps of convergence began late in the year, when the two sides reached an agreement on Iraq’s financial budget for 2020, which included delivering the Kurdistan Region 250,000 barrels per day of crude oil to the federal government in exchange for guaranteeing the salaries of employees, peshmerga, and the region’s share of about 13 percent.
During the past few period, the two sides held extensive discussions in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, on the outstanding differences between them in the oil file and coordination between them regarding the “OPEC +” agreement to reduce production.
The two governments reached an agreement to honor each other’s share of the production cut agreement, as well as exchange information on production to give more transparency to this file.
Unlike the oil file, the two sides are heading to conclude an agreement to invest gas in fields in the Kurdistan Region in an effort to secure fuel for power plants throughout the country.
In this regard, the federal government submitted a proposal to the regional government recently that the two sides continue to discuss this file in a visit by a delegation from Baghdad in the coming period, in preparation for the conclusion of a final agreement.
This convergence comes in the midst of the Corona pandemic crisis, which warns the data that it will cause a financial crisis in Iraq due to the collapse of oil prices to less than 20 dollars per barrel, noting that Iraq relies on revenue from the sale of crude to finance about 95 percent of the country’s expenditures.
And the former deputy in the Iraqi parliament, a member of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, Ashwaq Al-Jaf, told Shafaq News, “This stage is the stage of dialogue, and of course, the legal and constitutional dialogue is the solution to all outstanding issues between Baghdad and Erbil.”
She pointed out that, “According to the preliminary information, there will also be mutual visits by a delegation from the federal government to the Kurdistan Region and vice versa to complete the dialogue and discussion on the gas agreement, and it will be of benefit to all Iraqi people.”
And it turned out that “in the previous periods (in the second and third cycle), there was interference by some in the files between the governments of Baghdad and Erbil in order to create problems, and there was no language of dialogue followed, but there was a response by the federal government through data And media statements. ”
The outstanding differences between Baghdad and Erbil date back to many years, that is, throughout the period after the fall of the previous Iraqi regime in 2003, when the two parties were unable to overcome them despite many rounds of discussions.
However, the differences were exacerbated in an unprecedented way during the second term of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki (2010-2014), as he cut the Kurdistan Region’s share of the federal budget in 2014 in protest against the region’s plans to develop oil fields.
The region’s share of the federal budget continued to be withheld throughout the life of Haider al-Abadi’s government (2014-2018).
“Since the formation of the Adel Abdul Mahdi government, there have been quiet steps, according to a legal constitutional dialogue, to resolve all outstanding issues, away from the media escalation, and this is the correct method, which should have been followed many years ago,” Jaff said.
She adds that “any agreement between Baghdad and Erbil in the oil and gas files is being developed according to a law as well as the parliament voting on it, but the problem will be with the escalation of the voices of some political parties.”
She noted that “there is no problem between the two governments, and these votes are from politicians by chance, who refer to gathering votes for the elections, they are behind the confusion over the two governments, otherwise the two governments agree according to a formula that they set according to the budget law, and the Iraqi parliament votes on them, and if there is a problem between Baghdad and Erbil, so why do they agree on something so that the government puts it in the draft budget and sends it to parliament.
Al-Jaf believes that “the government of Adel Abdul-Mahdi was devoting its time to resolving the outstanding issues with the Kurdistan Regional Government in accordance with the constitutional framework, and did not allocate any time to the votes that are trying to create problems, and here the government is conserving the right of the Iraqi people and preserving the application of the law, away from any escalation Notify me. ”
And the member of the Kurdistan Democratic Party continues, “The federal government has a competent ministry to conclude any agreement on oil or gas, as well as it has experts in this field, and for this discussion is ongoing and will be completed on the gas agreement, in the next mutual visits of the two parties so that there is an agreement in accordance with the constitution and in the interest of all the Iraqian people”.
The differences between Baghdad and the region, over the past years, prevented the passing of a law regulating the management of oil and gas in the country.
However, things began to move toward a solution gradually since last year, which will make the conclusion of the gas agreement between the two parties easy compared to the oil file.
Iraqi oil expert Sadiq al-Rikabi told Shafak News that “the gas agreement between Baghdad and Erbil will be easier than agreeing on oil, especially since the two parties are going through a common ordeal of declining revenues, declining capital spending by oil companies and the absence of global demand.”
And Al-Rikabi said, “The agreement on gas between Baghdad and Erbil, because Iraq wants to benefit from electrical energy, without there being import of gas from abroad, and this saves revenues and makes the agreement between Baghdad and Erbil to invest the discovered and untapped fields easy, especially since there are discovered fields. Recently, but it is underutilized. ”
He stressed that “this field will be working in it, during the next few months, and it is a common interest for Baghdad and Erbil, especially that it will have a reduction in the agreement due to importing gas from abroad, and increasing the capacity of electrical energy.”
The Iraqi oil expert added, “This agreement provides financial revenues for the federal government, which helps both parties, to provide funds to pay the salaries of employees, build infrastructure, and finance the federal budget, and helps the federal government and the regional government to reduce the negative economic impact due to the decline in demand for oil prices, This agreement has a mutual interest for both parties. ”
In the months since top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani was killed, Iraqi politicians and analysts tell Diyaruna, they have observed a number of political and security changes that they view as positive for Iraq.
It has been just over three months since the former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force was killed in a January 3rd US airstrike in Baghdad.
Since Soleimani’s elimination, analysts said, Iraq now has greater opportunities to assert its independence and distance itself from the Iranian interference that was undermining its security and draining its resources.
“Iraq now has a great opportunity to dismantle the armed networks and mafias established by Soleimani over the past years,” Dijla Strategic Planning Centre researcher Hussein al-Safi told Diyaruna.
Over the years, these Iran-backed militias have “drained billions of dollars of Iraq’s wealth to serve Iranian projects in the region”, he said, noting that Iraq will be better able to assert its sovereignty as these militias weaken.
Soleimani’s elimination came at a time when the Iraqi people were taking to the street to demonstrate against government corruption and the outsized influence and interference of Iran in their country, he noted.
“This turned the Iraqi street into a key player on the political scene that is putting pressure on the political forces,” he said. “In view of that, it can be said that Iraq is undergoing a number of positive changes.”
Now that Soleimani is gone, there is an opportunity for change, al-Safi said.
Soleimani was one of the main forces behind the drain of Iraqi wealth, he said, and he oversaw the formation of dozens of militias, financed with Iraqi funds.
“His absence today is a great opportunity to put forward a more pluralistic political scene, because he undermined every civil or nationalistic political movement that he saw as posing a danger,” al-Safi said.
It can be said that this era has ended, he added, and that Iran is incapable of bringing in a replacement to do what Soleimani did.
In the political arena, there are new voices in parliament that are beginning to speak independently of the heads of blocs known for their ties to Iran, he noted.
“Iraq is without question better off now,” Mustaqbal party president and former Iraqi MP Entifadh Qanbar told Diyaruna.
“US forces gave Iraqis a tremendous gift by eliminating this terrorist [Soleimani], who until the last hour of his life continued to destroy the democratic process in Iraq and drain its wealth,” he said.
Through his support of Lebanese Hizbullah and militias in Iraq and Syria, Soleimani “posed a threat to civil peace in Iraq”, Qanbar said, “so eliminating him was akin to opening a new window to a better tomorrow for Iraq”.
“Three months after Soleimani’s death, the Iranians are still unable to find a replacement for him,” National Salvation Front leader and former Ninawa governor Atheel al-Nujaifi told Diyaruna.
“What exacerbates the predicament for Iran is that the financial support it was providing to the militias loyal to it has declined significantly, which has led to clear disarray among the members of those armed factions,” he said.
“The months-long demonstrations in Iraq reflected much of what is in the hearts of Iraqis, most significantly that they reject Iranian tutelage and interference,” he said, adding that Soleimani understood this before his death.
Iraqi political affairs researcher Ahmad al-Hamdani told Diyaruna that Iraq has witnessed “remarkable changes since Soleimani’s demise”.
“At the political level, despite the fact that there is a crisis over the government’s formation, it is notable that Iran has for several months been unable to impose its will or its opinion,” he said.
“There are MPs and blocs whose voices are growing louder and more nationalistic,” al-Hamdani said.
“Even the decision to close the border with Iran, as part of the measures taken to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, was one of the increasingly more independent decisions being made by Iraqi authorities,” he noted.
Border crossings and trade were key issues to Soleimani, and his insistence that Iraq keep importing goods from Iran, ensuring Iran’s access to hard currency, impeded the growth of Iraqi industry and agriculture, al-Hamdani said.
Regarding the general security situation in Iraq, the militias Soleimani founded have become “more fragmented” and are competing among themselves for influence and interests, he said.
Without Soleimani, these militias are “weakened and in disarray”, he said.
The mood on the Iraqi street is that people no longer want to see any force other than the army and police forces enforcing security, he said.
The Iraqi street views these armed groups as having no loyalty to Iraq and as “nothing more than arms or even tails that implement and serve Iranian interests”, he added.
“So the answer to the question of whether Iraq is better off after Soleimani’s elimination is a definite yes,” al-Hamdani said.
“His elimination has created intense fear among the militia leaders who worked under his command that they will meet a similar fate as their leader,” he said.
[Baghdad-Ain] In charge of steady steps towards completing the ministerial cabinet as quickly as possible, Prime Minister-designate Mustafa al-Kazimi is progressing, amid aid provided by all political blocs to complete what they agreed to agree to accomplish his mission.
The leaks indicate that the dialogues and stages of completing the cabinet and the government program are not facing obstacles yet, while various political forces have confirmed the completion of Al-Kazemi’s mission within a few days.
The deputy of the Alliance of Raiders Riyad Al-Masoudi said in press statements that “Prime Minister-designate Mustafa Al-Kazemi is still in the stage of dialogue and discussion with the political blocs regarding the formation of the ministerial cabinet, but the stage of dialogue may not be longer than 3 days.
Al-Masoudi added that “the taxpayer will present his vision and method of forming the government to the political forces and will see the vision of the rest of the heads of the blocs,” suggesting that “the stage of dialogue will end within two to three days.” He ruled out “choosing political ministers in the composition of the new cabinet.”
For his part, the head of the Parliamentary Bloc of Al-Fath, Muhammad al-Ghabban, revealed the formation of an advisory group representing the political blocs to provide assistance and advice to the person in charge of forming the government Mustafa al-Kazemi in studying the names of the cabinet and the government curriculum.
Al-Ghabban said in press statements that “the political blocs agreed to form an advisory team that grants the authority to select the taxpayer in order to accelerate the acquisition of the cabinet cabinet names and study their résumés to ensure the success of the special session and give them confidence and not to repeat what happened with Muhammad Tawfiq Allawi.”
Al-Ghabban added that “Al-Kazemi’s booth will include a mixture of independents and politicians who are not from the first line and have a vision in running the country while observing the criteria of integrity and competence in selection.” Indicating that “the political blocs are keen to give confidence to the Al-Kazemi government before the blessed month of Ramadan, taking into account the situation The current situation and the difficulty of holding a session after this date. ”
Al-Ghabban affirmed, “Agreement with Al-Kazemi to hold elections no later than one year, while creating all appropriate conditions in a manner that guarantees their fairness and transparency.”
