Revealing A New Scenario In Light Of The Continuing Political Impasse

An informed political source revealed a new scenario in light of the continuing political blockage and during the next stage, and the inability of all parties to proceed with the formation of the new Iraqi government.

The source told “Earth News”, “The tripartite alliance has an intention and an idea to keep the government of Mustafa Al-Kazemi, with a comprehensive cabinet reshuffle, in the event that the political blockage continues, and the failure of the National Salvation Alliance continues to hold a session with a full quorum to elect the new president of the republic.”

And the source indicated that “this option is strongly rejected by the Shiite coordination framework, and it may be addressed by the Federal Supreme Court, since such a procedure does not have any constitutional cover,” noting that “the tripartite alliance is working to find a parliamentary resolution formula to support such steps.”

Earthiq-news.com

The old price is coming…

Baghdadtoday.news

Adviser to Al-Kazemi: Iraq is in an excellent financial situation, and it is time to quickly approve the budget

{Economic: Al Furat News} A financial advisor to the Prime Minister, Mustafa Al-Kazemi, described the financial situation in Iraq, which is derived from crude oil revenue , as “excellent.”

Mazhar Muhammad Salih told {Euphrates News}, “Iraq is in an excellent financial position at the present time, as during the past month, oil revenues increased to 11 billion dollars, and this is a very large number that has not been recorded for five decades.”

He stressed that “this is a positive aspect, regardless of the profitability of the economy.”
Saleh added, “We imagine that it is time to present the financial budget law as soon as possible, especially since its draft for 2022 has been prepared for a long time and can be submitted and some amendments made to it.”

The Ministry of Oil, on the first of this April, announced that it had exported more than 100 million barrels during the month of March, achieving revenues that exceeded 11 billion dollars, which is the highest financial revenue achieved since 1972, according to the ministry.

Raghad Daham

Alforatnews.iq

Al-Sadr to his allies: we will proceed with forming a majoritarian government after the 40 days deadline.

Shafaq News / The leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, has informed his allies in the trilateral coalition that he will resume the pursuit of a majoritarian government after the expiry of the 40 days deadline he offered to the rival Shiite Coordination Framework to form a government.

A leading figure in the Sadrist movement, who preferred to remain anonymous, told Shafaq News Agency that al-Sadr had informed the leaders of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and al-Siyada Coalition that he will not give up on the national majority government he has been lobbying for since the October 10 election.

“Al-Sadr is aware that the Coordination Framework cannot form a government without the participation and support of the Sadrist movement,” the source said, “he will resume the endeavors to form the government after al-Fitr holidays.”

Last Sunday, a source said that the Coordination Framework is pursuing a multi-pronged approach to resolve the deadlock that have kept the country mired in political paralysis since October, 2021.

“The Coordination Framework leaders continue to hold meetings to deliberate proposals to a solution that end the Shiite-Shiite row and preserve the Shiite component’s share of the authority,” the source told Shafaq News Agency, “a delegation from the Coordination Framework is scheduled to visit al-Hannana, the headquarters of the Sadrist movement leader Muqtada al-Sadr, to break the ice between the Shiite rivals and revive the government talks.”

The Coordination Framework, the source said, has appealed to the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) to find a common ground and agree upon a consensus government apart from their current candidates.

“The Framework is adamant about reuniting the Shiite home. It will never give up on the Sadrist movement. However, if the latter remains intransigent about the authoritarian government, the former will proceed with forming a government and naming a premier.”
“The Coordination Framework is pondering further steps to knit the Shiite home,” the source added, “it will be revealed soon.”

Last week, the powerful Iraqi Shiite cleric said that he was stepping back for 40 days and giving his Shiite rivals the chance to form the country’s next government.

The surprising move by Muqtada al-Sadr comes against the backdrop of a persisting political deadlock in Iraq, five months after general elections.

Al-Sadr’s offer came in a tweet, in which he also called on his followers not to interfere “neither positively not negatively” as his rivals form the Coordination Framework, a coalition of Iran-backed Shiite parties, try to cobble together a Cabinet.

This translates into a nod to al-Sadr’s rivals to pursue the cleric’s Kurdish and Sunni allies in possible negotiations. There was no immediate response from the Coordination Framework to al-Sadr’s offer.

Iraqi political parties are at an impasse, and al-Sadr — the winner of the election — has been unable to form a coalition government. He has assailed his rivals, saying they “obstructed and are still obstructing” the process.

The parties are at odds over the choice of candidate for president, an obstacle that may also extend to the premiership. It is also not clear which party constitutes the largest bloc in parliament because of unclear and shifting loyalties of some lawmakers and parties.

The 40-day window offered by al-Sadr would start on the first day of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, expected to begin this weekend, depending on the sighting of the new moon. The Islamic calendar is a lunar one, meaning the timeframe offered by al-Sadr would stretch beyond Ramadan, when observant Muslims fast from dawn to dusk.

The development is “a clear challenge and dare” directed at his rivals while also being a “test of partners,” tweeted Farhad Alaaldin, chairman of the Iraq Advisory Council, a policy research institute.

It was not immediately clear how sincere al-Sadr’s offer was. The cleric, with a strong grassroots base, won the largest number of seats in the election but not enough to declare a parliamentary majority.

Iran-aligned parties, including that belonging to former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, have become his chief rivals. A parliament session last Saturday failed to reach the two-thirds quorum necessary to elect a president. It was largely boycotted by lawmakers associated with the Coordination Framework.

Al-Sadr’s move is a gamble: A failure by the Coordination Framework would give his party significant leverage, but its success would relegate al-Sadr’s party to the role of the opposition.

Shafaq.com

Al-Kazemi: Iraq will return to its rightful place and its covenant known for its strength and human and global presence

Baghdad – Mawazine News, Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi affirmed that Iraq will return to its rightful place and its covenant known for its strength and human and global presence.

Below is the most important statement of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Mustafa Al-Kazemi, during his visit to the headquarters of the 17th Infantry Division of the Iraqi army and having breakfast with a number of fighters:

? I congratulate you on the blessed month of Ramadan, and it is my pleasure and honor to be among the brave heroes.

? Our breakfast together is an affirmation and evidence of the cohesion of our armed forces, and the distinguished relationship that unites its types… the commander in chief, the field commander, the officer and the soldier in one trench in the defense of Iraq.

? We must remember all your great sacrifices, and we thank all the families of the martyrs from all our military and security institutions, and all our great Iraqi people who did not spare blood for the sake of Iraq’s dignity.

? Our belonging to Iraq first and foremost, our belonging to this country, to the Tigris and the Euphrates, to every honorable citizen. You and we belong to these, and we will continue to raise our permanent slogan, Iraq First.

? Through your efforts, giving, and sacrifices, Iraq will remain secure. You bear a great responsibility, because you are worthy of it. The security of Iraq and Iraqis is the most important of duties, and the blood of Iraqis is very precious.

? Iraq will return to the position it deserves, and its covenant known for its strength and human and global presence.

? I renew my thanks to you, heroes, for all the sacrifices you have made to preserve the dignity of all Iraqis, and what you offer daily in the field, and my best wishes to you and your families and to all Iraqis.

Mawazin.net

An expert expects the world to return to the gold standard

The Independent / – The Russian economist, Pavel Segal, indicated that the possibility of re-linking paper currencies to the gold standard is being discussed more and more in the world, pointing out that there are positive and negative aspects of this step.

“The rise in the volume of unsupported currencies in the world over the past years has prompted traditional economists to start thinking about the world’s return to the gold standard,” said Segal, CEO of Opera Russia.

The veteran economist pointed out that gold prices do not show large fluctuations like what happens to most currencies in the world and stock markets, and that the precious metal helps fight inflation, but he noted that the adoption of the gold standard opens the way for rapid devaluations and revaluation of currencies, which It prompted the world at one time to give up on the thought of this move.

Prior to that, the economist, Peter Schiff, expected that gold would resume its role again in the global monetary system, in light of the economic crisis the world is witnessing.

The expert expected a rise in precious metals prices in the near future, and said that “while the world is dealing with the Corona crisis, gold and silver prices are witnessing a rise, there are big movements in gold and silver coming.”

The economist advised everyone to stay away from the dollar before it was too late, and said that “the yellow metal will resume its role in the global monetary system, as the world will return to the gold standard.”

Gold is a safe haven in times of nervousness and volatility, and after the outbreak of the Corona crisis, the prices of the precious metal rose significantly, and today the yellow metal is trading at the level of 1923 dollars per ounce.

Mustaqila.com

The Federal Court rejects the lawsuit filed regarding raising the price of the dollar (for now).

Baghdad / Obelisk: The Federal Supreme Court rejected, on Monday, April 4, 2022, the lawsuit related to the re-exchange of the US dollar in relation to the Iraqi dinar to its predecessor, at an amount of 120 thousand Iraqi dinars for every 100 US dollars.

On March 14, the court decided to postpone the case for raising the dollar exchange rate to April 4.

Almasalah.com

The people are waiting impatiently for the formation of a government that expresses the will to live a decent life

Baghdad – The President of the Republic, Barham Salih, congratulated the Iraqi people on the arrival of the month of Ramadan.

Saleh said in a post seen by “Nass” (April 1, 2022), that “by the blessed Ramadan, I offer my sincerest congratulations and best wishes for good and peace to prevail in our homeland and our people, which strikes the most wonderful images of compassion, generosity and steadfastness.”

He added that this month “is an occasion to overcome the political crisis in the spirit of brotherhood and patriotism, and to respond to the aspirations of our people, who are waiting impatiently to form a government that expresses their will to live a decent and free life.”

Nasnews.com

After decades of complete isolation from the world, Iraq opens its doors again!

Baghdad/Sky Press – Many have begun to flock to a country that has just opened its doors to the world. A year ago, entry visas were granted upon arrival in Baghdad to many foreign nationals. After decades of isolation imposed by wars, the world had forgotten its important archaeological sites, some of which are on the UNESCO World Heritage List, which compete with countries such as Egypt, Syria and Jordan.

Some tourists come individually, including content creators who explore the country and post videos on YouTube about food, population and archeology to their tens of thousands of followers, while others come in tour groups with private local companies that organize tours from Baghdad to Basra in the south and Mosul in the north.

With the exception of religious tourism, which suffers from the same problems, the sector is relatively new to the country and still lacks organization, funding, the necessary infrastructure and government interest, according to the owners of private companies who are striving on their own to attract tourists.

Ileana, who lives in California and tours Iraq with a tour company, “Bilita”, says that she has dreamed of visiting Iraq since she took art history lessons from it 20 years ago.
“When I knew we could get a visa on arrival, I came as soon as I could,” she says. “I’m excited to see everything related to the cradle of civilizations.”

“The first thing I noticed is the warmth, generosity and kindness of the Iraqi people, they welcome you with a smile, they are very polite and they are very proud of their country,” she added.

Despite her enthusiasm and passion for Iraq’s history, Eliana, a 50-year-old who works at Google, has noticed that the infrastructure is deteriorating.

Babylon, which turned into a military base for the international coalition during the American intervention, still bears the scars of the past, as if it was not accustomed to visitors.

On the other side of the site, construction and maintenance work, workers in yellow helmets and phosphorous jackets, prepare pieces of iron and cement, while waste is piling up around, and wild weeds and thorns extend over some of the ancient city walls.

American Justin Gonzalez, 35, talks with a smile about his experience in Iraq. “On my government’s website, there is a warning against going to Iraq because of the danger of (kidnapping) and (violence), but I did not see any of that.”

In the nineties of the last century, during the time of the siege and international sanctions, the Iraqis became completely isolated from the world, and this isolation was not broken after 2003 after the American intervention and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein’s regime. It was followed by a series of wars, which made the image of Iraq in the world limited to scenes of destruction.

Many Western governments still officially warn their nationals against traveling to Iraq, such as the United States and France, whose State Department website refers to a “terrorist threat” and a “kidnapping risk”.

However, Baghdad is seeking to take off its tourism sector despite the challenge of the lack of infrastructure. In this regard, Ali Al-Makhzoumi, the owner of the “holiday”, which has been organizing tours for foreigners for 8 months, says, “In order for the infrastructure to develop, the private sector must invest in hotels, amenities and buses.”

His company receives 30 to 40 tourists per month, who tour the country for about ten days.

Skypressiq.net

The exchange rate in Iraq… real or not?

The exchange rate represents one of the policies that governments can resort to to address an economic problem afflicting the country, as happened in Iraq after 2003 and the last of which was in 2020.

Where the Iraqi government, through the Ministry of Finance and in agreement with the Central Bank, reduced the value of the Iraqi dinar in exchange for raising the price of the US dollar to 1450 instead of 1182 at the end of 2020, for financing (deficit financing), monetary (maintaining foreign reserves) and economic (improving production competitiveness) reasons in the medium term as well as the long term.

The source of the dollar, the state or the private sector?

By virtue of Iraq owning a large oil reserve estimated at more than 145 billion barrels, producing more than 4 million barrels per day, and exporting more than 3,400 thousand barrels per day, in 2020, the Iraqi economy has become an oil economy.

It depends on oil in large proportions, more than 40% of the output and more than 90% of public revenues, and more than 99% of merchandise exports.

The state also dominates over oil, as all dollar oil revenues are recorded in the general revenues section of the budget after being converted into the Iraqi dinar to feed public expenditures.

The neglect of the private sector, due to the lack of an attractive investment environment for national as well as foreign private investment, means a rise in production costs and prices, respectively, a decline in competitiveness and other commodity exports, and a recent decline in the dollar returns of the private sector.

Given the economy’s dependence on oil on the one hand, the state’s dominance of oil on the other, and the neglect of the private sector on the third, the state has become the main source of dollars in the Iraqi economy.

The mechanism

Where the state exports oil through the Ministry of Oil and SOMO in particular, and the Ministry of Finance receives the oil dollar, and since it needs the Iraqi dinar to finance the general budget, it will sell the dollar in exchange for the Iraqi dinar.

Assuming that the central bank did not enter as a seller of the dollar, at this moment we will notice a significant increase in the dollar exchange rate, due to the increased demand for the dollar to meet imports, and that the main source of the dollar is the state and the central bank buys it from it, and the private sector cannot satisfy the demand for the dollar because it is basically weak, as mentioned above, and therefore the exchange rate in Iraq is not real.

The real exchange rate is determined by the real forces of supply and demand

Because the real exchange rate is determined according to the forces of supply and demand in the market without the intervention of the central bank, meaning that it reflects the reality of the economy, is it a strong or weak economy? Because a strong economy will be able to provide the dollar through its competitiveness, increase exports, and provide the dollar in a way that balances the demand for it.

And the opposite is true, as is the case of Iraq, given the weakness of its real economy away from the state. It cannot provide the dollar in a way that achieves a balance because it loses production, competitiveness and export. Rather, it imports most products from abroad, which means there is an increase in demand for the dollar in order to satisfy the import in exchange for the weak supply of the dollar from Before the real economy, and if the Central Bank did not intervene to provide the dollar in the market, the price of the dollar would have risen to record numbers.

In other words, the Iraqi dinar exchange rate is a price supported by the Central Bank by entering it as a seller of the dollar, providing it in the market, through the currency window, this saving means the lack of scarcity of supply and thus achieving (imaginary) balance because it was not achieved by the forces of supply and demand on the dollar that depend mainly on the real economy.

Reforming and running the economy

It is not possible to liberalize the exchange rate and leave it to be determined according to the forces of supply and demand for the dollar in order to reach the real exchange rate without working first to provide the drivers of dollar savings in the real economy.

This reform requires, first of all, fighting corruption, providing an attractive investment environment for private investment in various real productive sectors, and involving the private sector in investment to be more capable of taking action and investing.

Conclusion

Operating the economy with high efficiency means increasing production at a lower cost, increasing exports, and providing the dollar away from the state, in a way that achieves balance with the demand for it, and here the exchange rate will be a real price because the bank did not intervene through the currency window to achieve balance.

Annabaa.org