Iraqi oil exports rise to 3.35 million barrels, driving a recovery in Gulf flows.
Iraq’s oil exports rose by 9.5% during October, reaching 3.35 million barrels per day, approaching pre-war levels, at a time when the most prominent Arab oil-producing countries in the Gulf recorded an overall increase in their shipments, which contributed to strengthening global supplies and reducing pressure on prices. Iraqeconomic reports
According to oil tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg and energy market analysis firms, exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait rose by 10% to 15.53 million barrels per day in October, approaching the levels of shipments recorded at the beginning of the year, while no Iranian exports were detected for the second month in a row, amid the US naval blockade.
According to the data, this increase reflects the return of oil flows from Arab producers in the Gulf, through transport and shipping operations that followed different routes to overcome the restrictions and risks associated with navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, mechanisms that the UAE began to adopt before Saudi Arabia later adopted them.
Iraq has the second largest increase
Iraq came in second among the four countries in terms of the size of the increase in exports during the past month, after boosting its flows by 9.5% to 3.35 million barrels per day, approaching pre-war levels.
Shipments from the southern port of Basra have increased, while those via the northern route through Turkey have nearly doubled, according to tanker tracking data, as Baghdad announced last month that its exports were approaching pre-conflict levels.
The increase in Iraqi exports comes as part of moves by Gulf producers to compensate for the quantities and revenues affected by the war, at a time when exporting countries are seeking to strengthen their presence in global markets, amid fears of renewed military escalation and supply disruptions.
Saudi Arabia leads
In this context, Saudi Arabia led the surge in exports, raising its flows to about 7 million barrels per day in October, an increase of 13% on a monthly basis, according to tanker tracking data and satellite images, in addition to data from Kpler and Vortexa.
After the kingdom’s exports remained lower than those of the UAE for most of the conflict, Saudi shipments began to rise as flows through the Strait of Hormuz were boosted, following a temporary shutdown of its alternative East-West pipeline during an attack launched from Iraq in September.
With the resumption of operations on the pipeline, Saudi Arabia is now benefiting from its traditional route through the Arabian Gulf, in addition to the alternative route through the Red Sea. Satellite images taken last week by the European satellite Sentinel-2 showed nine supertankers docked at Saudi berths in the Gulf, indicating an acceleration in loading operations.
The bulk of the Saudi increase came through the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, where exports jumped 35% to 3.07 million barrels per day.
As for the UAE, which was ahead of the rest of the Gulf states in boosting its exports during the conflict, its flows rose slightly by about 50,000 barrels per day, to an average of 3.74 million barrels per day, the highest level since last July.
The UAE’s oil production hit a new record high in September, according to the International Energy Agency. UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei stated at a conference in Abu Dhabi that his country’s exports had exceeded pre-war levels at certain points during the conflict, without specifying current shipment volumes.
In Kuwait, exports rose by about a third in October, reaching 1.44 million barrels per day, the highest level since before the war, according to tanker tracking data and Kpler. The Kuwait Petroleum Corporation announced last month that exports had returned to levels close to those before the conflict.
These shipments help maintain ample supplies in physical markets and contain prices, at a time when rising fuel prices, particularly gasoline and diesel, are increasing pressure on consumers and fueling inflation, as well as having political repercussions for US President Donald Trump as voters head to the polls in the midterm elections.
In contrast, crude oil futures fell on Monday, with signals from Washington and Tehran that diplomatic efforts might continue, but concerns about renewed military escalation still supported prices, with Brent crude trading near $106 a barrel.
Iran at zero
In contrast, no Iranian exports of crude oil or condensates were detected last month, for the second month in a row, according to tanker tracking data, amid the ongoing US naval blockade.
Satellite images taken by the European satellites Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 did not show loading activity at the Kharg Island docks and the Soroush and Jask export terminals during October.
However, the data may not reflect the full picture, as most oil tankers transporting Iranian crude deliberately turn off their GPS devices while inside the Arabian Gulf, making it more difficult to track their movement through the Strait of Hormuz.
In a related context, the Gulf member states of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) may have an additional incentive to maximize their exports, as the organization’s members prepare to negotiate production targets for 2027.
OPEC and its allies are conducting a review to determine the quantities that each member can actually produce, with the aim of adjusting production quotas, with ministers scheduled to meet on November 29.
Shafaq.com