The Trump administration sends a decisive message to Baghdad: The era of ambiguity regarding Iran is over.
The administration of US President Donald Trump is no longer willing to accept the ambiguity of Iraq’s position through its rapprochement with Iran, as it believes that Baghdad should turn westward instead of eastward, and strengthen its friendship with the United States and the surrounding Arab countries.
Washington now expects changes in government that will strengthen Iraqi sovereignty, noting that Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s visit to Washington will be scrutinized, but that Americans and Iraqis must be patient and refrain from making judgments at the moment.
The Middle East Institute , in a report entitled “New Relations Between the United States and Iraq?”, reviewed the end of the tug-of-war and the formation of al-Zaidi’s government, the congratulations he received from President Trump, and the invitation to visit Washington in the middle of next month.
The American Institute report, translated by Shafaq News Agency, stated that the US administration seems to have high expectations of al-Zaidi, but these expectations should be tempered.
He noted that his government program was ambitious, with the first part of the program addressing state control over weapons and the application of the rule of law, while the second part addressed foreign policy, emphasizing the need to strengthen relations with the Gulf states. He expressed his belief that Washington may have embraced al-Zaidi wholeheartedly because he is a practical businessman who understands how to make deals.
He explained that the American experience with those who held previous positions was disappointing, indicating that despite American efforts to pull Iraq away from Iran, Shiite leaders remained under Tehran’s influence, while the power of Iranian-backed militias increased and they became bolder, he said.
The report went on to say that “repeated US demands to control, disarm, or disband the militias have not been effective,” adding that “the US now expects the new prime minister, who comes relatively from outside the system, may perform better.”
He pointed out that the formation of al-Zaydi’s government has not yet been completed, explaining that it is likely that al-Zaydi will use the remaining ministerial positions, especially the Interior and Defense ministries, to appease his opponents within the coordination framework, as there will be a political cost to these concessions.
He also noted that the Prime Minister must also respect American red lines in his appointments, stressing that the United States wants Iraq to turn westward, away from its current orientation towards Iran and China, and to undergo a transformation in its institutions and policies.
He explained that the Trump administration has three main interconnected goals, the most important of which is disarming the Popular Mobilization Forces and demobilizing the factions, which will require action from the House of Representatives, noting that the central problem so far has been the lack of political will and courage necessary to disarm the groups.
According to the American report, disarming the factions would make working in Iraq safer for American companies and limit their ability to impose Iran’s agenda, explaining that what Washington wants is to see the political, economic and diplomatic decision-making process free from Iranian influence.
But the report acknowledged that disarming or disbanding the factions does not mean liberation from Iranian political influence, indicating that al-Zaydi may face greater resistance in removing the pro-Iranian infiltration that has long been entrenched within the ministries, parliament, and the economic sector.
He stressed that another priority for the Trump administration is to create a welcoming environment for American companies operating in Iraq and ensure their safety, recalling that during the recent war, militias repeatedly targeted American and European oil companies in the Kurdistan Region and Basra, causing production disruptions and the evacuation of foreign employees, according to the report.
The report added that the United States is not only seeking protection, but also expanding the involvement of American companies in the growth of the Iraqi economy, suggesting that Washington hopes that Iraq’s relations with the Gulf states will develop naturally through the disarmament of militias and disengagement from Iran.
He concluded that with Syria removed from Iranian hegemony, Washington wants to see Iraq emerge from under the Iranian umbrella and integrate into the Arab environment, including with Syria.
According to the report, US envoy Tom Barrack, through his meeting with al-Zaidi on June 15, laid out an ambitious roadmap for al-Zaidi, which the Iraqi prime minister appears willing to follow, but the political landscape makes the chances and pace of success uncertain.
He considered that the outcome of the “American-Israeli” war against Iran, and the outcome of the American-Iranian negotiations, would have a potentially significant impact on events in Iraq, adding that if Iran believed it had won the war, and if its allies shared this belief, then Tehran would be more determined to hold on to its assets in Iraq, and would not give up its influence in what it considers its vital area of interest, nor would it easily give up the large political and economic rewards it has obtained in Iraq over the course of two decades, and for this reason, the Popular Mobilization Forces factions may refuse to give up their weapons.
The report argued that the United States and Iraq need to agree on indicators of progress in achieving key objectives and address obstacles together, with the priority remaining the disbanding of militias, which is the most complex task. It noted that the decision by the Supreme Judicial Council, headed by Judge Faiq Zaidan, to expand the scope of the anti-terrorism law to include “any person who manufactures, uses, or possesses drones used for unlawful purposes” represents a step in the right direction and an indication of how al-Zaidi will use it to control the militias, although the real proof will be in the implementation.
According to the report, the United States must offer incentives to groups that disband their military wings, surrender weapons to the government, and transform into political parties as defined in the Constitution. These incentives could include removing sanctions or other designations that restrict their activities and prevent them from engaging in formal politics. However, there must also be direct punitive measures against groups and individuals who refuse the offer of disarmament and remain outside the control of the government.
The report concluded by noting that successive Iraqi governments have declared their desire to establish good relations with both the United States and Iran, adding that in practice, this has meant leaning towards Iran, an ambiguity that is no longer acceptable to the Trump administration.
Shafaq.com