Exclusive: American assessments: Striking Iran is “likely,” and Iraq is in danger.
The president of the Institute for Global Policy in Washington, Paulo Van Schirach, ruled out the possibility that US President Donald Trump would stand idly by in the face of the crackdown on protests in Iran, suggesting that a US military strike against “sensitive” targets inside Iran was likely, despite his warning of the risks of a retaliatory response that could affect US bases in Iraq and the Gulf.
Van Schirach told Shafaq News Agency that “Trump had previously warned the regime in Tehran that the United States would take action if the protesters were met with a harsh response.”
He added: “We clearly see that Iranian security forces are killing, beating, and arresting people, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump said: ‘I warned you and you did it, now I’m going to act.’”
Target Bank
Regarding the nature of the expected American response, the expert explained that the American administration may seek to strike “sensitive targets” such as military installations, factories, and headquarters of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
Van Schirach continued, saying that “Washington may also attack oil facilities and oil depots with the aim of weakening the regime, but the challenge lies in choosing targets that do not cause large civilian casualties, because attacking streets crowded with people would be a crazy idea.”
He pointed out that “the most important question remains (will it be a symbolic strike for show only, as happened previously, or a strike intended to cause serious damage to the system to facilitate a real rebellion?),” adding: “It is difficult to know what is going on in the administration’s mind right now, but the options are many.”
Van Schirach pointed out the difficulty of predicting the actions of the American president, saying that “Trump is an unpredictable figure; sometimes he threatens and does not act, as happened with Putin and Ukraine when he gave deadlines and nothing happened. There is a kind of inconsistency that makes prediction difficult.”
According to the American expert, if the Iranian regime continues its repression after an initial strike, there may be a sustained bombing campaign until they stop, although Trump does not want an invasion of Iran and does not want to see American soldiers killed abroad because that would cause him political problems.
Danger in Iraq and the region
Van Schirach also warned of the repercussions of any American attack on the region, pointing to Iranian threats of retaliation, explaining that “the Iranian regime has clearly stated that it will respond to American military targets, given the presence of American bases and a US presence in Iraq, Syria, Qatar and Bahrain.”
He concluded by saying that “Iran is not strong at the moment, but it or its proxies may resort to retaliation in these areas, which makes the scene chaotic, and yet I cannot rule out American military action in any way.”
Earlier on Tuesday, US officials reported that they had presented US President Donald Trump with new options regarding military strikes against Iran, but he had not yet made a final decision on the matter, according to US press reports.
On Monday, US President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on countries that do business with Iran, while simultaneously considering military action against the Iranian regime.
Shafaq.com