Türkiye is using oil as leverage… Expert warns of a “water deal of the century” against Iraq
Water expert Ahmed Al-Saadi warned on Monday (November 3, 2025) of “dangerous bargaining” by Turkey towards Iraq regarding the water issue, indicating that Ankara is trying to impose a new equation based on controlling water projects within Iraqi territory in exchange for obtaining broader oil and commercial concessions.
Al-Saadi told Baghdad Today that “Turkey has moved from the stage of exerting pressure by reducing the flow of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers to a more complex stage represented by offering to implement water projects inside Iraq,” explaining that these projects “include the establishment of desalination plants, dams and modern irrigation systems, but they are conditional and serve Ankara’s expansionist goals, and give it direct influence within the Iraqi water infrastructure.”
He explained that “this policy represents a direct threat to national water security and makes Iraq a hostage to unstable political and economic understandings,” adding that “Iraq’s water share has declined by more than 60% in recent years due to the construction of giant dams in Turkey such as (Ilisu) and (Cebban), which has caused the desertification of thousands of hectares and exacerbated unemployment and internal migration.”
Al-Saadi pointed out that “linking the water issue to oil constitutes a dangerous precedent, as water is an existential right that cannot be turned into a commercial bargaining chip,” calling on the Iraqi government to “adopt a more robust diplomatic and legal stance to protect water sovereignty.”
He concluded: “What is happening today is not just a water scarcity crisis, but an attempt to redraw the region’s balances at the expense of Iraq. If the country does not act quickly, its water sovereignty may become a worthless bargaining chip over time.”
This warning comes amid an escalating water crisis between Iraq and Turkey, resulting from Ankara’s continued implementation of its massive projects without binding agreements on water sharing. The operation of dams such as Ilisu and Ceyban has drastically reduced the amount of water reaching Iraq, exacerbating drought and desertification in large parts of the country, declining agricultural production, and increasing rural-to-urban migration.
Burathanews.com