Central Bank: Iraq’s public debt is lower than that of the United States and several other Arab countries.
The Central Bank of Iraq confirmed on Monday that the external debt curve is declining and that Iraq is within safe limits for public debt. The bank noted that Iraq’s public debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 31%, a lower percentage than that of developed countries such as the United States and Japan, and other Arab countries such as Egypt, Algeria, and Morocco.
Samir Fakhri, Director General of the Statistics and Research Department at the Central Bank, said, “Total public debt is divided into domestic and external debt. Domestic debt, as of the end of last September, amounted to 90.6 trillion dinars.”
He added, “The domestic debt is divided into more than 50% in favor of the Central Bank, and less than 50% in favor of banks, whether private or government-owned,” indicating that “the majority of the debt owed to banks is owed to government-owned banks, i.e., from government to government.”
He pointed out that “the external debt has reached $54 billion, and is divided into three parts: the largest part, namely $40.5 billion, dates back to before 2003. It is a suspended debt, and we are not currently bearing any burdens on it, whether interest or debt service, from 2003 until today.”
He continued, “The second part is the Paris Club debt, which amounted to $120 billion, 80% of which has been written off, leaving $24 billion. With what Iraq has paid, only $3.8 billion remains, which was supposed to be covered until the end of 2028.” We note here that the external debt curve is declining.
He pointed out that “the third portion amounts to approximately $10 billion, and is related to investment spending. It is a long-term debt of twenty years, owed to a group of countries and organizations, including Japan’s JICA, Germany’s Siemens, Spain, and Britain. Thus, the total debt amounts to approximately $10 billion. If we exclude the forty and a half billion, the remaining amount is approximately $13 billion.”
He emphasized that “if we convert these debts into dollars multiplied by the current exchange rate and add them to the domestic debt, the total debt-to-GDP ratio would reach approximately 43%. However, if we exclude the suspended debt of $40 billion, the public debt ratio would be around 30 to 31% of GDP.”
Regarding financing the three-year budget deficit, Fakhri explained that “the deficit within the budget law was approved by Parliament for a period of three years. It is a planned deficit, not an actual one, of approximately 64 trillion dinars per year, meaning a total of 192 trillion dinars for the three years. What was actually spent as real debt is approximately 35 trillion dinars.” He indicated that “if we divide 35 trillion by the planned deficit, the percentage will be approximately 18.2%,” noting that “the debt was 56 trillion dinars until the end of 2022, and from 2022 until today, 35 trillion has been added to it, bringing the total to approximately 90.6 trillion dinars that we mentioned.”
He added, “One of the most important indicators of monetary policy is the consumer price index (inflation), which is currently close to zero. If we compare it with neighboring countries like Iran and Turkey, we find a clear difference in inflation rates between them and Iraq, in addition to the exchange rate gap.”
He stressed that “the focus must be on financing the deficit, so it must be directed towards investment spending, as this leads to growth in non-oil revenues.”
Fakhry touched on some of the debt ratios in neighboring countries, noting that “in Egypt, public debt amounts to 90% of GDP, in Algeria: 49%, in Morocco: 70%, in Lebanon: 160-170%, and in Saudi Arabia: 29%, despite being a strong and industrially advanced economy.”
He pointed out that “major industrialized countries, such as the United States, have a public debt of 120%, while Japan’s debt ratio is 250%.”
Alforatnews.iq