BGG Notes:

Maliki came back from Iran where he met with most of his most ardent Shia supporters (not all Shias support him – as before).

The Dawa party (and Maliki) “facially supports” these recent reforms called for by the Iraqi Clerics and the demonstrators (the people)… However, it’s a political tactic. He needs to look like..

“HE’S THE REFORMER”, or at least line himself up with the reforms…

Then there’s these rants blaming Erbil and Turkey for the fall of Mosul. Maliki must think no one remembers Barzani going to the press when Maliki wouldn’t listen about ISIS on the move.

There are articles out that affirm they put the SLC at Abadi’s disposal… again a weak showing of being “on the side of reforms” – not the “focus of the reforms”…

On the other hand Maliki is secretly attempting to subvert Abadi  everything he does.

It is worth noting – there are numerous OP ED’s out recently pointing out that if Maliki really wanted reforms he would have done so long ago.

Maliki is in now in FULL DAMAGE control…

The Friday before the Mosul Report was coming out – he went to Iran to gather support. This move seems to have (temporarily) worked. This caught me a little off-guard. I didn’t think he had that kind of support from Iran once they pulled their support from his bid for a 3rd term.

He did not come back until he had some assurance of some kind – though no guarantee, he must feel he has some potential for survival.

This just goes to show you. I was told some time ago he had deep support from some very unlikely sources. It appears both Sunni leadership was “on the take” as well as some level of support from the Iranian Mullahs. Though they don’t seem to support another Maliki term – they don’t appear ready to throw him overboard just yet either. There is no guarantee they won’t though.

They have even sent Gen Qassem Soleimani into Iraq south of Baghdad to orchestrate a “quelling” of the demonstrations and supposedly to secure Maliki’s safety. However, I am not convinced his ultimate safety is Soleimani’s underlying mission.

This report of Gen. Soleimani being there is limited in it’s scope (how many times/and how it is reported) – so I view this with a healthy dose of skepticism. Also – this frantic move to maintain control over Iraq may well backfire on them. It is becoming clearer and clearer they have some agenda. This is surely not lost on the Iraqi people. Overall, they are typically not happy about external influence – US or Iranian. They don’t like it. One good thing – all of this has forced the Iranians to play their hand in a more public fashion. Now they all know…

Abadi was quoted just recently as saying…

…”the prime minister does not think now in dissent nor undo the reforms, and will not seek to raise Maliki’s name from the list of defendants fall of Mosul.”…

Meaning – he won’t take Maliki’s name out of this report… it will play out.

I don’t see – with the mounting charges, how Maliki survives this barrage. Mosul, Halabja, embezzlement from the CBI, the Speicher massacre, the prison break, it goes on and on and on…

Further – my comments regarding “Maliki as gone” – are clearly “forward looking statements” and ARE IN PROGRESS. Visible progress has been made – for now, Maliki is NOT A VP and is NOT WELCOME in official GOI meetings. Party meetings are one thing. GOI is another thing entirely.

Rather than get caught up in who’s right and who’s wrong and what the details are – what about the WHY?? WHY did Abadi move now?? Was it demonstrators?? No – I doubt it very much. Maliki can think he has everyone right where he wants them – but keep in mind this whole campaign of reform was kicked off by the WB/IMF telling Iraq to get their AML (Anti-Money Laundering) and corruption under control (both issues pointed DIRECTLY AT MALIKI). They were given until Oct 1st to get an AML law put in place. It would probably help Abadi to have an Investment Law in place as well.

Thus far Abadi has responded. Judiciary is next. He needs to keep up the pressure...