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w/BGG and Mr. White – from April 15th
wmawhite - When the time is right the CBI in conjunction with the IMF and WB will change the status of the IQD. They will not wait on anyone or anything IF the time is right. [no way was M [Maliki] going to gain politically from this event.] concur…M [Maliki] is old news. remember, it could take many months before the new government is formed. However, IMO, if the time is right, the CBI will move forward with the IQD.
IMO, the statement by the MoF last year that the IQD will experience a dramatic change in value prior to June 2014 and the expiration of EO 13303 on 22 May 2014 has alot to do with the IQD than many realize. …even with the stalemate in Erbil and the hold up with the budget…the CBI has been lights out…speeding forward. They wait on no one.
“EVICT MALIKI” COUNTDOWN : 12 DAYS TO THE ELECTION
NOTE: that the countdown notice has been amended to qualify the Election as ”Scheduled ” to give emphasis to the tenuous state of political / constitutional affairs in Iraq in recent days and specifically the mention in the news of a possible delay in the election due to the Anbar diaspora. Add to the foregoing the ” threat” of the election occurring under martial law with Maliki as the chief executive officer.
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Erbil Delegation in Baghdad for Full Slate of Talks
A Rudaw story about the visit of a KRG delegation led by Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani to Baghdad on Tuesday, April 15, 2014 was published in error. The KRG premier was on an official visit to Turkey.
There has also been a misunderstanding between the editor and the journalist about KRG’s oil exports to Turkey. Kurdish officials say, no updated information is available on Erbil-Baghdad oil and gas talks.
We apologize to our readers for this error. ARTICLE LINK
BGG ~ Now if that isn’t weird, I don’t know what is…
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Salman al-Moussawi: We have reached an agreement with the Kurds on the budget
Tomorrow’s Press / Baghdad: MP for the coalition of state law Salman al-Moussawi, on Thursday, for the coalition to reach agreement with the Kurds on the Law of the federal budget, and while noting that the position of the last change at the last minute, said that the law will pass in spite of political differences.
Moussawi said for “tomorrow’s Press,” said that “some political blocs are provoking a coalition of state law concerning the delay in approving the federal budget for the current year,” noting that he “refuses to extortion.”
He added that “the law will pass in spite of political differences, rejected,” revealing that the “rule of law reached an agreement with the Kurds on the budget, but that the position of the last change at the last minute.”
Moussawi clear that “mass re-united want candidates who are excluded from participating in the elections by the Commission and the Federal Court, but the state law, his position clear of it and rejects all violations of the law.”
It is noteworthy that there are differences between the governments in Baghdad and Erbil on some items of the law of the federal budget for the current year related to the export of oil obsolete Kurdistan region of Iraq, and these differences have caused disable the law was passed. ARTICLE LINK
Ahrar bloc describes 3rd term for Maliki as “Dreams”
Baghdad (AIN) – Ahrar bloc of Sadr Trend described granting a 3rd term for the Premier, Nouri al-Maliki, as “Dreams.”
MP, Hussien al-Shireifi, of Ahrar bloc stated to AIN “The majority of the political blocs object renewing a 3rd term for Maliki due to his policies that caused crises and problems for the country.”
“Iraqis are looking for a away out to settle the current crises that negatively affected the Iraqi society,” he concluded. ARTICLE LINK
Chattels ~ INCREASINGLY I AM PERSUADED THAT THE VOTE OF THE ELECTORATE SHOULD BE VIEWED AS A ” REFERENDUM ” ON THE PERSONALITIES AND THE POLITICAL BLOCS. WHAT PARLIAMENT DOES IN RESPONSE TO THE VOTE IS THE REALLY IMPORTANT MATTER. THE PLURALITY OF THE VOTE OF THE PEOPLE AS TO A ” MAJORITY ” AND ULTIMATE SELECTION OF THE PRIME MINISTER VOTE IS NOT BINDING UPON THE PARLIAMENT. IT CAN AND WILL DO WHAT THE VARIOUS POLITICAL FACTIONS CAN AGREE UPON REGARDING THE LEADERSHIP OF IRAQ. THEIR SYSTEM, LIKE OURS IS AN INDIRECT FORM OF GOVERNMENT. THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE CONTROLS IN THE U.S.A. AND THE PARLIAMENT IN IRAQ. THE ELECTION IS A WARM – UP TO THE BUSINESS OF GOVERNING IRAQ WHICH REALLY STARTS POST ELECTION.
Warnings of foreign companies in Iraq to a mass exodus
BAGHDAD - Specialized experts warned that Iraq will stand embarrassed in front of the foreign companies operating in the country that will face the great migration to future investment companies.
The director of “media center” economic, Dargham Muhammad Ali , “The delay in approving the financial budget for the year 2014 will lead Iraq into an awkward position in front of foreign companies operating”, adding that “most of the companies involved did not receive financial dues until now what will drive them to a mass exodus of sites and work legally claim entitlement of Finance. ”
“The failure to approve the budget would hurt the reputation of Iraq, and will reduce the confidence of global corporations financial device of Iraq,” adding that “the Bank will reduce the classification of Iraq as a state-funded sovereign Iraq as a result of the financial situation is stable.” ARTICLE LINK
Maliki agrees to hold a televised debate with Chalabi
Chalabi said, a candidate for the bloc led by Prime citizen Islamic Supreme Council Ammar al-Hakim, he was quoting the prospects satellite channel, the “al-Maliki agreed to hold a debate with political and economic.”
Chalabi added in a blog on his page in the social networking site, “Leave them to choose any TV channel, provided that the direct transport of people and wait for them to respond.”
Chalabi has called in a similar statement, al-Maliki to debate political and economic.
This comes ahead of the elections on the thirtieth of April. ARTICLE LINK
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The power of the cash reserve to support the value of the national currency
BAGHDAD – Mustafa al-Hashemi - Represents economic stability of any country component of equal opportunities for the supply and demand for services in it, where he sees an economist that the presence of stability as well as to isolate external influences and minimize the national economy and revitalize the work of the productive sectors and problem-solving domestic economic push towards strengthening and enhancing the value of the dinar…
He said economic expert, Dr. Majid picture that the economy is affected by a factor of stability is totally reflected directly on the value of the currency as well as the presence of internal and external influences play a role in determining that value. He added picture in a statement (morning): The amount of cash reserve represents the biggest bumper to fluctuations in oil prices follows an impact on the fluctuation of the exchange rate as it is not for the amount of the reserve power of the sovereign to the increased value of the dinar.
The cash reserves of the dinar – as announced recently - more than 80 billion dollars paving the way to be because of the Iraqi currency purchasing power larger than it is now, as well as that it will contribute significantly to raise its value against other foreign currencies. In a time when cash reserves of some countries made significant gains or declines abruptly, the cash reserves of the Iraqi paced a solid stable upward away from the sudden rise or fall…
He was an academic economist called earlier based on the economic sector in Iraq to re-evaluate the value of the currency after it enhances the cash reserve quantities of gold.
Said Dr. Majid Baidhani it imposed after the addition of about 1.5 billion dollars to the Central Bank reserves to rise the value of the dinar to a higher level compared to its exchange rate against the dollar, praising the procedures followed in the context of monetary policy, stressing the need to speed up the move to re-evaluate the dinar to strengthen the foundations and pillars of the economy National.
It should be noted that the central bank boosted its reserves of gold to up to 90 tons after announcing the purchase amounts of it for the purpose of selling them to the public in support of enhancing the value of the local currency… ARTICLE LINK
Iraqi Dinar/Dollar auction 04-17-14 (no Friday auction)
Currency Auctions Announcement No. (2654)
This daily currency auction was held in the Central Bank of Iraq on the 17-Apr-2014
The results were as follows:
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Araji: State law would give al-Maliki to losing the third term
Araji: State law would give al-Maliki to losing the third term, and our alliance with the Supreme Council of the project is a lifesaver
[Baghdad - where] The MP said the parliamentary Liberal bloc Bahaa al-Araji, “it is certain that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki will lose his third term.”
He said al-Araji told all of Iraq [where] that “in the present state of the law in their fractious Aijmahm thing, but they are certain positions in the state when the state loses Maliki third and this is certain: most they will leave and come to the embrace of the National Alliance, which will be the savior of the project.”
The al-Araji said that “the election results will surprise everyone and there are understandings between the coalition and the Islamic Supreme Council and these understandings after achieving the results will make him a strong balance of seats make all the political blocs that wraps around it.”
Several political forces, including the Sadrists and the united openly declared its opposition to take over the prime minister for a third term after the parliamentary elections….
BGG ~ This is very interesting lingo… Not only is Araji very active lately (nearly three articles a day) during this election cycle, he is pointing out the Sadrists are the “lifesavers” of the (democracy) project.
More Interesting Headlines…
Expert calls for the deletion of zeros from the current currency instead of printing new currency
Iraq / future - The head of the Economic Studies at the University of Kufa, an economist Raad Twigg, the central bank to take comprehensive measures to replace the currency and delete the three zeroes and determine the exchange rate of new Iraqi currency, instead of putting up a new currency confuse the deal in the local market.
Twigg said, that “put the Iraqi Central Bank to cash currency with new specifications without pulling equivalent represents an expansion in the money supply in the local market… ARTICLE LINK
The argument with the CBI is that they appear to be following Shabibi’s plan to a tee. Shabibi had envisioned leaving the 1000, 500 and 250 in circulation until they were unusable.
There was no plan to re-print these notes because Shabibi thought that because of value the people would end up turning most into the banks as new accounts or just needing change. Shabibi only planned to print a series of smalls from 1 to 100 both coins and paper. He also envisioned printing the fils.
The economist above has a valid point to make. He assumes that there is no reason to print the 250, 500 or 1000 if they just delete the zeros and collect them at the same time they collect the rest of the 5000, 10,000 and 25,000 notes that are still out there.
I agree with him but it is obvious that the bank feels the need to close the gap and that too is a valid argument. I feel comfortable that the smalls are printed but they did not print these larger notes, the 250-1000. The bank appears to be staying the course and these notes at least for a while will join the smalls in circulation… (Read More…)
The Kurdistan Region of Iraq and Turkey: An Enduring Relationship or Temporary Marriage?
By DAVID ROMANO
In Turkish political circles, a popular joke holds that “the United States wanted Turkey and Iraq’s Kurds to become friends, not to get married.” As Turkish-Iraqi Kurdish cooperation in especially the hydrocarbons realm steadily deepens, observers increasingly ask if the relationship is an enduring one or fleeting.
An enduring strategic relationship, just like a solid marriage, is born of shared national interests, mutual respect and real interdependence. A fleeting cooperation, in contrast, stems from a temporary confluence of political interests, typically dependent on the personalities and preferences of leaders who may fall from power in the foreseeable future. Like a temporary marriage, such cooperation can fulfill pressing needs and preferences, but both parties know the arrangement will be discarded in short order. Have Ankara and Erbil become real strategic partners or will the relationship last only as long as Mr. Erdogan and Mr. Barzani remain the heads of their respective governments?
Those who argue that the relationship is dependent on the leaders currently in place often assume these people have a good personal relationship, which in turn sustains their government’s cooperation. I am not so sure Mr. Erdogan and Mr. Barzani like each other on a personal level at all, however. Not so long ago they traded recriminations and even threats, and Ankara would speak with Baghdad instead of Erbil when it needed something like cooperation against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). It was in 2007 that Massoud Barzani stated ““You [Turkey] do not talk to me in an official capacity. You do not accept me as a partner for talks. You do not maintain a dialogue with me. Then suddenly you want me to take action for you against the PKK? Is this a way to do things?” Although the relationship between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Turkey looks very different now, there appears little evidence that things improved because of a special, personal rapport between the two leaders or some of their top ministers.
So what changed? The first critical development occurred when Prime Minister Erdogan effectively eviscerated the “deep state” in Turkey – the unelected Kemalist elite in the military and elsewhere. It was the deep state that prevented any Turkish government – including that of Mr. Ozal in the late 1980s and early 1990s – from even saying the word “Kurdish,” much less embracing a Kurdish political entity anywhere. The mentality of the old style Kemalists saw anything Kurdish, whether in Turkey or in Alaska, as a threat and Ankara’s enemy. The final death knell of the deep state sounded in the summer of 2011, when all of Turkey’s top generals resigned.
With the deep state out of the way, leaders in Ankara who were more focused on Muslim identity than a mono-national Turkish identity found themselves free to embrace Iraqi Kurds. Their strategic reasons for doing so far outweigh any personal sympathies. First of all, Mr. Erdogan’s Justice and Develop Party (AKP) now looks like it is can retain enough votes to stay in power no matter what, so long as the economy remains reasonably good and it continues to appeal to both ethnic Turks and ethnic Kurds – something I examined in my column of April 3 (“The Teflon Prime Minister”). Appealing to ethnic Kurds becomes easier when the AKP is able to say “This government is anti-PKK, not anti-Kurdish – just look at our reforms and our great relationship with Presidents Barzani and Talabani!” If the new token Kurdish friend Ankara now takes to all its receptions and parties also helps it contain the PKK and PKK front groups in Syria, that’s an added reason to keep the friend close for a long time.
Keeping the economy afloat to keep winning elections is more complicated. A key part of the AKP’s economic strategy relies on energy imports for a hungry, fast-growing economy. They especially need gas for Turkey’s power plants, and what comes from existing pipelines from Russia and Iran is expensive and limited given current infrastructure. What’s more, Russia and Iran stand out as the real threats to Turkey and its interests in the region. Iraqi Kurdistan, on the other hand, lacks the power to seriously threaten Turkey and offers much cheaper oil and gas. Even if Turkey wanted to buy its oil and gas from Baghdad, the hydrocarbons would still have to pass through Kurdistan.
Leaders in Baghdad seem far too close to Russia, Iran and the Assad regime in any case. Especially with Turkey’s new assertive foreign policy role in a proxy regional Sunni-Shiite rivalry, the Sunni Iraqi Kurds stand out as a natural ally. These days, the KRG also looks like the only neighbor Turkey has zero problems with. None of these key strategic considerations appear likely to change for Turkey any time soon.
The KRG, meanwhile, needs an outlet for its oil and an alternative to dependency on Baghdad. KRG leaders are none too fond of the PKK and its anti-capitalist, far leftist outlook either. As a result, Turkish and KRG leaders do not have to like each other all that much. They will continue to need each other, which is what the most enduring political relationships (as well as a lot of long marriages) depend upon. ARTICLE LINK