Stratfor Strategies: Sit. rep.
Negotiations are underway between the Iraqi government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) over the planned Kurdistan independence referendum, scheduled for Sept. 25. Numerous international powers oppose the referendum — including the United States, the United Kingdom, Turkey, Iran, Germany and other EU powers — and pressure is mounting on KRG President Massoud Barzani to delay the referendum. Meanwhile, Barzani is trying to turn popular approval among Iraqi Kurds for the referendum into a mandate that will improve his bargaining position. But the rallying support — and opposition — is bringing a political charge that’s already spilled over into violence and could do so again.
The prospective referendum includes territories that the central government in Iraq and the KRG both claim as their own. As political negotiations continue, the security situation in the disputed territories is tense and risks escalating. In one such province, Diyala, Iranian-backed Shiite militias recently tried to claim territory, with militia leaders saying that the Kurds had no right to it. In Kirkuk province (which is more valuable than Diyala in part because of its oil reserves), not only do both the Iraqi and Kurdish governments lay claim to overlapping portions of the province, but outside powers Turkey and Iran also claim some degree of ownership and maintain ties to militia forces on the ground.
On Sept. 18, clashes erupted in Kirkuk between Kurdish paramilitary forces and Turkmen, resulting in the death of one Kurdish fighter and the wounding of a total of five men from both sides. As of Sept. 19, a nighttime curfew had been issued in Kirkuk to quell the violence and circumvent an escalation. Earlier the same day, in a pro-referendum rally in Kirkuk, provincial Governor Najmiddin Karim made an appearance in support of Kurdistan independence, underlining the political tension in the province. Many Kirkuk residents, particularly Arabs and Turkmen, do not support the referendum. Because neither Baghdad nor Arbil wields ultimate power over the militia forces scattered throughout the province, there is the risk further clashes will occur. More unrest could, in turn, invite the deployment of even more military forces — from both the Iraqi government and the KRG — to the province. Going forward, Kirkuk will be a province to watch as a bellwether for the mounting risk of violence over the upcoming referendum.
Read More: http://www.dinarupdates.com/showthread.php?54398-Stratfor-Strategies-Sit-rep&p=179246#post179246
BGG ~ IMHO, they may have a “vote” on this yet… long-run?? Barzani is KIDDING himself. If he manages to split from Iraq in the near future, Turkey will have him for a light snack (This is highly likely the impetus for the Barzani’s buying U.S. residences).
Erodgan has been spoiling to deal with his Turkish Kurdish. He sees no difference in his southern uprising and Barzani. They are all the same to him.
Further, both Turkey and Iran have designs on Kirkuk as well as the Kurds and the GOI. To further complicate matters, the GOI has clearly not been paying their bills to the Kurds. It has to be a pretty big slap in the face where the Peshmerga hasn’t been paid since 2013 and these THUG SHIA Militias got salaries codified in the recent budget. On the other side of the argument – the Kurds have been (reportedly) selling oil outside the agreed upon channels.
Think about it… if the Kurds haven’t been contributing to the GOI for as long as is represented, if the GOI haven’t been paying the Kurds since 2013…
What does this vote matter?? They have the same “defacto agreement” going right now? Correct? How or why would it matter to the currency of Iraq?
Doubters?? Here is a Stratfor headline from TODAY!!
Sep 23, 2017 | Turkey: Parliament OKs Military Intervention, Warns Iraqi Kurds On Vote
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Sept. 1st – “FB Live” Video Link
From our Sept 1st Facebook Live. “Verify Your Dinar”. We re-recorded this – I hope this works better for everyone.
For a limited time – I am personally handling the sale of some privately held Dinar. It is from a premium source and is in excellent condition (Uncirculated 25k notes).
If you would like to add to your Dinar holdings while it is still possible, send me a PM via FaceBook (in the Private Group) or send an e-mail to DinarUpdates@comcast.net . I will make the arrangements.
Thanks
BGG
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Click this link to join the DU “private” FaceBook Group…
https://www.facebook.com/groups/571383766355188/
(go here and ask to join… then add some Dinar Friends!!)
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Kaperoni Article: “Talabani’s son announced acceptance of the US proposal to postpone the referendum” Quote: “The leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan Jalal Talabani, Pavel Talabani, announced on Saturday that the Patriotic Union and the Kurdistan Democratic Party decided to accept the American and international proposal to postpone the referendum.” …just because the PUK and Talabani agrees, does not mean Barzani will. In fact, outstate voting has already begun. We will see on Monday what happens inside Iraq.
Read more: http://www.dinarupdates.com/observer
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Barzani: The time has come to demand the postponement of the referendum will not take my people
[Baghdad] – The president of the Kurdistan region, Massoud Barzani, said the claims and calls to postpone the referendum on independence “is over.”
“The time has come to call for the postponement of the referendum, and I am not the one who is failing his people,” Barzani said in a speech to crowds at the Franco-Hariri stadium in Erbil on Saturday evening.
“I asked a lot about the reasons for attempts to prevent the referendum and no answer to this only the desire to break the will and dignity of the people of Kurdistan, and that the referendum decision is in the hands of the people.”
He called Barzani, the people of Kurdistan to go to the ballot boxes next Monday, to participate in the referendum on independence of Kurdistan, “noting that” we are at the crossroads of either slavery or independence and freedom. ”
“After 2003, we thought that there was a chance for a new Iraq after all the injustice inflicted on the people of Kurdistan, but unfortunately we soon found out that the majority of politicians in Baghdad are following the practices of the former regime and we reached years ago to believe that there is no possibility of staying with Baghdad.”
He went on to say that “the decision of the referendum was taken before June 7, but they thought it was only a pressure sheet or a way out of internal crises and agreed to split Kurdistan, but the referendum came out of being a decision of one party or one,” noting that “Baghdad threatened to announce after Referendum without trying to correct its wrong policies. ”
He stressed that “dialogue with Baghdad could begin after the referendum, not before, accusing the successive Iraqi governments since the fall of the former regime to turn the Iraqi state into a doctrinal state instead of a civilian state,” he said.
Barzani said that “we did not declare the referendum to demarcate the border or to impose the status quo, but to say the people that I am,” stressing that “will go to Baghdad for dialogue after the referendum.”
“The partnership with Baghdad no longer exists because the Baghdad government is not committed to the constitution,” he said, adding that some of those in Baghdad “have the same mentality as the Anfal crime.”
And Barzani that the government of the Territory went to Baghdad before the referendum on dialogue on the subject, but Baghdad did not take it seriously.
He called on the neighboring countries to sit down at the dialogue table to discuss the concerns of the secession of the Kurdistan region, rather than using the threat method, “stressing that” the Peshmerga forces will fight against any attack on Kurdistan. ”
In response to a UN Security Council statement, Barzani said, “We are ready and serious to cooperate with our Iraqi neighbors and the international coalition in the war on a preacher, and we will be tougher.”
BGG ~ If you read this whole piece, it spells out alot…
The title is a little deceiving. However, it also points out Barzani clearly intends to “negotiate” with Baghdad afterwards. The whole thing has the feel of a “squeeze play”.
Barzani may well know he has no chance of a true independence play. On the other hand, while this is an “extra-Constitutional” vote, Abadi and the GOI ignore their Constitution when it suits them as well.
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Adam Montana [Is this as good as it sounds?] I see a LOT of things that are pointing to major change! Abadi is a positive force in this matter…
Read more: http://www.dinarupdates.com/observer
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Pipelines and Power
The budding relationship between Russian energy firm Rosneft and Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is closer than ever. The company announced Sept. 18 that it was in the final stages of negotiating a deal with the KRG to finance and build a $1 billion natural gas export pipeline to Turkey. Once complete, the pipeline will transform the way the autonomous region in northern Iraq exports its energy. And its effect on regional politics will be no less dramatic.
As a landlocked region, Iraqi Kurdistan relies on pipelines through nearby territories to carry the energy it exports to markets abroad. Its dependence on its neighbors has proved a vulnerability, though. The Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline that transports oil from Kurdistan to southern Turkey, for instance, gave Baghdad considerable influence over KRG leaders in Arbil because it crosses through territory under the Iraqi federal government’s control. To squeeze concessions from Kurdistan, the Iraqi federal government could block the KRG’s access to the pipeline.
The negotiating tool lost its power in 2014 when Arbil closed a 50-year export agreement with Ankara that enabled it to construct its own oil pipeline to Turkey through Iraqi Kurdistan. Under the new arrangement, however, the KRG simply traded its reliance on Iraq’s federal government for dependence on Turkey. And though Ankara is a less demanding administrator than Baghdad was, it still has a great deal of power over Arbil, its energy exports and even its oil revenues, since the KRG conducts its energy transactions through Turkish Halkbank. Turkey, moreover, could shut off the KRG’s access to the pipeline without jeopardizing its energy security because it, like Iraq, consumes only a small portion of the Kurdish oil that passes through its territory.
So far, Ankara hasn’t exploited its advantage over the KRG as Baghdad did. Nevertheless, Arbil is well aware of the risk. Turkey’s support for KRG President Massoud Barzani is based largely on convenience and could waver as the leader continues to back an independence referendum scheduled for Sept. 25. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently announced that his government would reveal its planned response to the referendum after meetings of his Cabinet and national security council Sept. 22. Though it’s unclear whether Ankara’s response will involve the KRG’s pipeline, the possibility is worrisome for Arbil and has prompted it to look for a way to even the playing field with Turkey.
Enter Russia
The Rosneft-financed natural gas export pipeline would do just that. With a planned annual capacity of 30 billion cubic meters (98.43 billion cubic feet), the pipeline will be able to transport nearly two-thirds of the total volume of natural gas that Turkey imported last year. Not all of that natural gas would wind up in Turkey; some would likely travel on to markets in southeastern Europe. Even so, the pipeline would boost Turkey’s consumption of natural gas from Iraqi Kurdistan, particularly since Ankara is eager to find alternative sources to reduce its dependence on Iranian and Russian supplies. The more natural gas Turkey imports from Iraqi Kurdistan, the less leverage Ankara will have over Arbil.
Rosneft stands to gain from the new pipeline, too. The firm’s expansion in Iraqi Kurdistan not only dovetails with the Kremlin’s strategy to insinuate itself into as many global hotspots as possible, but it also supports Rosneft’s strategy to compete with Russian natural gas giant Gazprom. Rosneft has long tried to break Gazprom’s monopoly on piped natural gas exports from Russia. With its plans to export natural gas each year from Iraqi Kurdistan to Turkey and southeastern Europe, Rosneft has set its sights on two of Gazprom’s most important markets.
But Rosneft’s pipeline deal is just the latest of in a string of recent agreements that bode well for the Kurdish energy sector. Earlier this year Rosneft became the first major oil company to start pre-purchasing Kurdish oil exports, throwing Arbil a financial lifeline. The Russian firm then used the arrangement as a springboard for the pipeline deal, along with an agreement to explore and develop five blocks in Iraqi Kurdistan. Apart from forging deeper ties with Rosneft, the KRG also finally settled its long-standing dispute with the Pearl Petroleum Co. over energy payments. The two sides reached an agreement that included future investments into natural gas production, which will contribute to the initial feedstock for the Rosneft pipeline.
The natural gas export pipeline that Rosneft and the KRG are negotiating could immediately change the way regional powers operate and behave. Although the infrastructure won’t alter countries’ individual interests in the region, it will change the factors at play in the dispute between Arbil and Baghdad — a dispute that will only intensify as Iraqi Kurdistan’s independence referendum approaches.
Courtesy: https://worldview.stratfor.com/
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G-Lin Article: “The World Bank is asking the Iraqi government to provide jobs to restore confidence with citizens” …art. last week from IMF was very emphatic with their instructions. Increase your value and eliminate MCP. I think they are waiting for the security issue they have talked about for 2 years now. And they are very close to accomplishing their fight against ISIS. That may be it. If the Parl. manages to vote that 2nd amendment for CBI through, it could be a timing issue after that. They don’t tell us everything. If the debt to Jordan and to Kuwait has been addressed, that would lift them entire from Chap. 7 I believe. The banks have been and continue to be brought up to International standards. Money laundering and corruption are being addressed. Some new currency would go a long way in that corruption fight. Let Abadi take the credit for winning the war and if he gives the peeps some purchasing power, his spot for P.M. next year would seem solid IMO. We are getting there…One thing is for sure, with all of Iraq’s wealth, this increase in value will happen…JMO.
Read more: http://www.dinarupdates.com/observer
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Abadi told America to take all legal action against the referendum
Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi told US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson during a telephone call to take all legal steps necessary to prevent the referendum and the unity of the country, stressing the unconstitutionality of the procedures of the Kurdistan region on the referendum.
“Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi received a telephone call from the US secretary of state on Saturday evening,” a statement from the prime minister’s office said.
“The United States rejects the referendum in Kurdistan,” Tillerson said, stressing “his country’s full support for the Iraqi government and all its steps to preserve Iraq’s unity.”
“I congratulate the Iraqi people and their valiant forces for their remarkable victories over the gangs that have supported terrorism in recent battles,” the statement said,
The US Secretary of State praised the international community for the outstanding role of Haider Abadi in the military victory and in the plans to restore stability and reconstruction of liberated areas.
For his part, Abadi stressed “the clear and clear position of the Iraqi government on the unconstitutionality of the referendum of Kurdistan,” stressing “to take all legal steps necessary to prevent the exposure of security and community peace and the unity of the country at risk.”
Pointing out “the insistence of Iraq to expedite the completion of the liberation of all territories from the clutches of terrorism and the preservation of the Iraqi border.”
Read More: http://www.dinarupdates.com/showthread.php?54397-Abadi-told-America-to-take-all-legal-action-against-the-referendum
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The World Bank is asking the Iraqi government to provide jobs to restore confidence with citizens
The re-establishment of trust between the Iraqi state and its citizens is highly dependent on the government’s ability to provide security, jobs and economic growth for all Iraqis, especially the poor and vulnerable, and millions of internally displaced people for them.
In a press release, the World Bank Group concluded a series of consultations with various stakeholder groups on the new strategic partnership framework for Iraq for the period 2018-2022, which sets out the key development goals the Bank Group aims to help Iraq achieve. And a program of strategic interventions for this purpose. ”…
BGG ~ Any ideas on how they plan on making this happen??
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Central Bank to Tackle Hoarding of Iraqi Dinars
The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) has held symposium entitled “Analysis of the phenomenon of Hoarding in Iraq“, addressing the problem of people hoarding Iraqi dinars (IQD), and not making them available to the banking system.
During the seminar, the Governor of the Central Bank, Dr. Ali Mohsen Ismail (pictured), pointed out that cash is not available as planned, and that the CBI is drawing up plans to solve this problem and attract money into the banking system.
According to a CBI statement, the term “hoarding” is used in its economic sense to mean “holding money and imprisoning it from circulation or keeping them in the boxes inside the house and not taking them out to trade in the markets.“
I am kind of curious to see exactly how they intend to handle this. Seriously?!?
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Post RV Checklist (it’s getting to be that time!! Listen up!!)
Dos and Don’ts of Windfall Wealth:
Treat it like a PowerBall win
– Tell no one, not even family. If you must talk, do so with one who is already in the know.
– Don’t run out & buy new “stuff”. People notice.
– Get an unpublished number and give it out very sparingly.
– Get a tax accountant you can trust to make sure the IRS is satisfied (Certified Opinion is something to look into) and pursue asset protection…
Read Complete List: http://www.dinarupdates.com/showthread.php?18519-The-Post-RV-Checklist-and-Flashback-documents&p=128477#post128477
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