Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
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    Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report

    Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report

    1 April 2017

    Short term outlook

    As the Mosul operation continues, there is a heightened risk of high-profile attacks in permissive areas across Iraq including Baghdad, Sa lah ad Din and Diyala, as IS retains intent to increase
    sectarian tensions and force a redeployment of ISF resources away from Mosul.

    This is underlined by recent VBIED attacks in Shia-dominated areas of Baghdad City as well as multiple lower level IEDs, especially in eastern Baghdad.
    With ethno-sectarian tensions currently heightened in Kirkuk, there is also an increased possibility of high-profile attacks in Kirkuk City, although IS capability to conduct such an attack is assessed as less than in those areas with a majority Sunni demographic.
    An increase in attacks can also be expected in eastern Anbar, in particular the cities of Ramadi and Fallujah, as evidenced by recent high-profile attacks in the region.

    The security footprint and other local factors in the south, particularly in Baghdad, will severely constrain IS ability to mount sustained complex attacks of the sort seen in the north and the west of the country, though the threat from low-level IED and SAF attacks remains. There may be an increased level of ISF deliberate actions to disrupt and deter insurgent and criminal activity during the Mosul operation, especially in the northern areas of Baghdad province
    Medium to long term outlook

    In the absence of concerted engagement with the Sunni population in areas currently under IS control, it is possible that the post-IS security environment will be characterized by sectarian flash points between radical Sunni tribes and Shia militia groups especially in Nineveh province and western Kirkuk. Limited reporting has already indicated displaced Sunni families being advised or directed to leave Kirkuk.

    It is almost certain that in areas retaken by ISF, an insurgency will be established by Sunni insurgents including remaining IS affiliates.

    Low-level incidents related to criminality, personal disputes and tribal tensions are likely to continue in Basra and the southern provinces in general. This is assessed to be facilitated by large segments of the security forces currently being involved in operations to retake IS-held areas of the country.

    In the long-term , there will be tensions driven by the return of Shia militia factions, who will expect material and social rewards for the contribution in the national campaign against IS.

    While the Mosul operation has refocused attention away from Abadi’s reform program, the risk of politically motivated demonstrations against corruption in front of government institutions remains extant.

    Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report 1 April 2017
    Confidential and proprietary © GardaWorld


    Muqtada al-Sadr says only Iraq’s military should hold land seized from IS Muqtada al-Sadr has stated that only Iraq’s military should hold territory recaptured from Islamic State, an
    apparent sign of concern that rival militias might use the gains to expand their influence. “It is necessary to support the Iraqi army and security forces to complete their victories in the usurped areas,” Sadr told thousands of supporters at a rally in Baghdad on March 24. “They should be the only ones that hold ground after liberating it–no others, whether the occupier, foreign forces or others,” he said.

    Iraqi PM meets UN Secretary General in Baghdad Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has hailed the UN humanitarian efforts in Iraq and the role it plays to address the issue of IDPs. During a joint news
    conference in Baghdad with visiting UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, Abadi said that the UN supports human rights and rebuilding the capabilities of Iraq. The Iraqi premier also said
    that he has asked for more aid from the UN and the international community to reinstate stability in the areas recaptured from IS.

    Iraqi oil minister: market is decisive factor in possible cut extension Iraqi Oil Minister Jabar Ali al
    -Luaibi stated on March 26 that the market is a decisive factor in deciding whether to extend a global agreement on reducing oil output into the second half of 2017.

    “The market will decide.

    The market is a decisive factor” Luaibi told press in Kuwait, where a committee set up to monitor the production cuts is convening. He also said Iraq was in full compliance with the output-cut agreement.


    Last edited by MadDScout; 04-02-2017 at 04:31 PM.

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