Mehdi Banai *: manifestations of economic quackery


If sorcery in the general concept is (delude people and deceive them) and give the impression fake facts as reality, and claim the ability to fulfill desires with the help of entities unknown worlds inferior superhero, can not be seen or measured or know what it is , this concept does not apply in the social life only, Our lives economic and her Djaloha Mhaodhuha. The economy and development in Iraq (visions, planning, implementation and control of analogy) takes mostly of sorcery approach.

The first manifestation of sorcery are planning in the dark, and a mess of politicized data.

The availability of data, information and statistics of the first priorities of economic planning, where the correct data that can be relied upon, and you do not even have a census since half a century! Not to mention the exact statistics of resources and inputs, we do not even have briefly counters to measure oil source!

How can you prepare and the imposition and implementation of customs and tax plans on the types of goods and incomes and you do not have the data (real) for individuals, companies and goods?!

Where real data on the volume of imports and types and sources and the real prices? The style of the health of the breasts request official documents is still the norm! Where are the correct data for the Iraqi consumer behavior, trends , and the distribution of income? Where measurements of real unemployment, poverty , and we hear varying sizes each day?

Wallis preparing economic plans and programs in this darkness is a hallucination and economic juggling!

How can the preparation of fiscal and monetary policy prudent and feasible in a country where a parallel economy, spend a parallel and parallel government, and a parallel army ?! How can control and directing the country 's economy does not Bmnavzh border controls, which are plundering the national and religious parties?

How do you build an industrial sector and a strong competitor and you do not have the (energy) artery contemporary economic life, and (sources of concessional financing) nor (roads) and claims that the development of the industry primary goal. To set goals without the ingredients you realized the truth woven into illusion, and this juggling itself.

Energy concept Economic everything that moves the factories, transport and activity overall economic cost of competition, no matter the lighting and heating homes is limited, the cost of workmanship save energy currently accounts for about 15% of the product in small industries and cost, and is higher in the cement industry, iron, etc ..., which is the cost high compared to the products of neighboring countries, not to mention the cost of disruption and damage it.

The high capital needed expensive to establish and maintain projects, bureaucracy dull, conditions impossible guarantees, in the absence of a real banking system, is one of the obstacles in front of potential investors, and the perception that the investor will fund the project from the personal portfolio of 100% and without the contribution of the domestic banking sector as dreamed of each other, is an illusion of economic and juggling crude.

And how you can build an economy in a country that does not just control (security barrier) for other than limited, yards, including assigned a lost of money and time unwarranted, and a wide door for Atwat and other manifestations of corruption.

Even worse than that , they are hoping to activate tourism in such circumstances. This means that the German individual leaves East Asia, the Maldives and the Caribbean Islands and Resorts medium and Dubai Sea countries and even the Sharm el - Sheikh and Hurghada, comes to tourism resorts Abu Ghraib on the road to Fallujah General, or on the banks of the Shatt al - Arab in the hospitality clans fractious in Basra safe, or the safari in Boadina it can be finished by the kidnapped, any illusion this ?! (It 's less pain juggling)

How can you attract investors from abroad are lured to bring their money and invest in a country that is not enough and stable energy in it, no roads , no security in it? It is simple for any policeman or a modest employee of the municipality or health or the environment and other departments can not to mention parties or clans or powerful entities that controls your project or blackmails him but stopped for any reason artificially.

Fact that there are bodies to encourage investment in the various countries of the world based mainly on the creation of the investment environment, and build the elements of successful and rival investment, overcome obstacles, and shorten the stages, then the promotion of the environment and to convince potential investors feasibility and preference over others. The creation of a body to marketing fantasies and try pretending to be clever at business and investment institutions, reality does not exist, it is a desperate attempt, these institutions and the role of a much smarter investment, and will not be attracted to these superstitious but desperate and Tarion and users.

Promoting opportunity Phantom, one of the charlatans of economic activities, to promote a real estate project (as happened recently) worth ten billion dollars more than the total capital of private banks have (in the domestic banking sector contributes to the financing of the project to build or marketed) in the land of muddy, do not characterized by something, and in the environment, as previously described, and invites investors to bring their money and fund a project to build, and receive it upon themselves to infrastructure are also important, and wishes that Isoqgua their project in a market where credit instruments are not available ... is juggling economic quackery par excellence.

Our country , Iraq is one of the interior countries somewhat small and critical marine Vatalalth, bordered by the three largest economies in the Middle East and North Africa (Iran with a total GDP of an estimated $ 393 billion, Saudi Arabia $ 646 billion, Turkey $ 717 billion (2015), either Iraq local Venatjh up to $ 180 billion for the same year. relies government budget on a single product by 97%, and if we know that for these countries the vast marine debut, and what this means of opening up to the global commercial transportation lines, and that these countries do not rely on oil production in the gross domestic product or government except Saudi Arabia balance sheets, and these three countries own huge industrial base operating in a stable environment, and related infrastructure , integrated, and sources be perfectly energy, and work culture are common, and sources of concessional financing, and access to expertise and technology backup tools. and that these countries all have limits long land with Iraq, we can realize the difficulty of the Iraqi industry (current conditions) with products that can compete with neighboring countries products, especially with the import of anarchism made known policy.

Free imports of all kinds, and the freedom of movement and transfer of capital, offset by non-float the local currency, not even linked to the dollar, and the continuation of its support to the reserves account, juggling and distortion of economic and corruption purely, and the policy may not even the most powerful states solvency to continue her long.

That we are not productive base of absorbing energy to work for our children in 14 years, with more than $ 800 billion Exchange, confounds safe by some economic lie, that this exchange will result to create demand for goods and services, leading in turn to encourage the establishment of local industries to meet this demand, the result was a leak 99% of disbursements to the outside and composition of demand for products and other neighboring countries, and added burden on the balance of payments, and to turn Iraq into a purely market for other products.

The new liberal economic approach, the disadvantages of the third world countries, and to be marketed in Iraq, carried out distorted, openness and free trade, and raise the hands of the state (in absolute terms) is not conducive to building a productive economy (automatically), as demonstrated by the past years.

The number of state employees up to 4.5 million employees, compared to a country like Canada ( the second - largest countries in the world space, economy produces 1 550 billion dollars annually, which does not exceed the number of employees in the federal and local departments of more than 600 000 employees) does not mean however that the Iraqi economic plan broad employment support mechanism for the distribution of rentier income - oil - (which is so contrary to the view the ownership of citizens and not staff the Constitution of the resources of the country), and as a means of bribing voters and gain public support, and get bigger disaster if we know that the average productivity of the employee does not exceed 17 minutes per day.

Instead of targeting the creation of a productive society, and to spread the culture of work, and the formation of psychological and behavioral trends and motivate people toward work and production, and the creation of the reasons for the establishment of productive sectors, in turn, and creating opportunities and harness the energies, so they can be to age and rationing and invent holidays and holidays and occasions New Cassel.

From the results of this sorcery that:

- The unemployment rate reached 30%, is disguised in government circles unemployment.

- Poverty rate close to 20%

- Industrial sector completely paralyzed, by 1% of GDP, and was supposed to absorb the largest share of labor power, and the most important contributor to the gross domestic product. Country that does not produce faithful to brush teeth.

- Public debt rising to $ 110 billion, accounts for 61% of GDP. For comparison, the ratio in Iran does not exceed 16.3%, 6% and in Saudi Arabia, and Turkey 33%.

- Off projects worth $ 206 billion.

- Profiting from the auction currency is the only activity of the banking system, it turned to the banking system of the engine of the economy to host the beneficiary without its natural role, and take foreign currency commodity and not a tool for the exchange.

- More than 77% of the Iraqi currency bloc are outside the banking system, 31 trillion dinars of the total 40 trillion dinars issued by the Central Bank distributed among the trading arena and caches of compactness . And therefore it is outside the credit system and finance. It is important that the government sorcery calling on citizens to deposit their money in the bank and use banking tools, while preventing the Chambers of deposit in private banks ( out of fear for their money). Nearly 90% of the money is in government ministries and banks.

- Is a confidence in this form economic environment and the banking system, it certainly will not be a haven for the heads of local money, Halal or Haram them.

- After the pant lie that Iraq is an attractive environment for investment, and a lie single window, after it emerged that investment circles it is only the offices of the brokerage, and a spiral of bureaucratic abhorrent, investors moved away from home and abroad to invest in the country, remained the state is the largest investor failed.

- The housing problem is compounded year after another, what Iraq needs nearly two million housing units (the lowest estimate), this number is increased by the annual increase in population.

Note: The data contained in most source is the World Bank.

(*) Economic and industrial analyst Iraqi activist

Copyright Network Iraqis economists. Allowing re-publication, provided reference to the source. March 10, 2017