Poll-oversupply will become a recovery in oil prices in 2016

Vijayakumar of Vidala
January 4 January (Reuters) - Eliminated poll conducted by Reuters and released on Monday that oil prices rise much in 2016 as it seems to be the weak demand growth will not be enough to absorb the increased supply from countries such as Iran and Iraq, although it is expected production decline from the outside Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
According to the opinion poll, which included 20 analysts expected to reach an average price of Brent crude measurement in futures to $ 52.52 a barrel, less than expected in the previous month, a survey by $ 5.43 a barrel.
This is the seventh monthly survey, told Reuters in a row in which analysts lowered their expectations for the price.
In May, analysts predicted that the average Brent price to $ 70.90 a barrel in 2016, but they are reducing their expectations since then.
And cut 13 out of 18 analysts participated in the exploratory opinion At last December and November II expectations for the average price of Brent futures in 2016, which amounted to $ 53.79 a barrel on average in 2015.
Oil prices hovered near its lowest level in 11 years after it fell to its lowest level since mid-2004 in late December, where it seems that high production approaching record highs size will fuel supply glut in global markets.
Said Rahul Brithiana Sa.ar.aa.as.aa.al Director of Research, "even if the decline in production from non-OPEC countries (United States, Brazil and Canada) by 0.6 to 0.8 million barrels per day in 2016 will keep increasing production of Iran and Iraq in the glutted market situation about supply in 2016. "
Analysts said the high inventory levels may continue into 2017 as may be required to get rid of unwanted stocks for some time.
Brithiana said "demand growth will be affected because of the slowdown in Chinese demand growth and increased efficiency for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries and the replacement of natural gas and the removal of subsidies in countries

Analysts did not reach consensus on whether low prices will force OPEC to reduce production.

Few analysts possibility that OPEC adopted to take some action if prices fell below $ 30 a barrel, while others said that he will not have to cut production of the significance of what the organization did not collapse demand to a large extent.

Thomas said the Pew analyst who specializes in commodity markets at Capital Economics Consulting "The only scenario that makes sense for there to reduce OPEC production is a collapse in demand and then the slowdown in China's economy has been inaugurated for such a procedure."

Analysts predicted that the average price of US crude futures to $ 49.75 a barrel in 2016 compared to US $ 53.73 a barrel on expectations in November. The average price of West Texas Intermediate crude futures to $ 48.90 a barrel in 2015.

The highest forecast for the price of Brent to ABN AMRO at $ 65 a barrel, while less was expected of Nomisma Energia at $ 38.08 a barrel.

(Preparation Islam Yahya Arab Bulletin - Edit aura Qandil)