Diversify the Iraqi economy dream verifiable

12/26/2015 0:00

Dr. Basem Abdel Hadi
Here's OPEC announces oil production remains at current levels without reducing which made ​​prices fall to below forties, which keeps the financial returns to Iraq next year when its forecast unchanged and therefore there are a number of pillars to be achieved so that Iraq and its economy "unstable" to achieve a state of sustainability and move away from the crisis, and most important of these pillars is the advancement of all "pad oil" and other words address the structural imbalance in the Iraqi economy, which has become axioms known even to non-specialists, but treated it applies one philosophers Greece definition of a dream where he knew that he (ordered Impossible but necessary), does this goal will remain a dream Nstzl at every opportunity? If not, well you could achieve?

The belief constantly lean economic policy-makers on the "oil cushion" is justified in light of reading the historical experience of Iraq during the past decades, where all previous developmental tests failed to resolve the rentier problem and continued the Iraqi economy is based on the economic programs on what is known in the modern theory of "bathtub" of the international financial literature the more foreign exchange reserves rose up with government spending, especially this dramatically and be the most prominent manifestations expansion of the user's operating in the public sector and this attribute deepen the exposure of the Iraqi economy to external shocks positive (rising oil prices) and negative, which unlike the case of interdependence between the financial and the business cycle and the financial proceeds from the export of oil.

On the operating level, the oil sector to Aashm in the operation of the Iraqi work force, but a low rate not exceeding in any case all 2 percent of them, and this means that 98 percent of the labor force are absorbed by sectors of exceeding its contribution to the gross domestic product, 30 percent and dominated by service activities fragile configuration and if we exclude the oil sector of the installation of the economic equation and you include gross domestic product to other sectors components only the contribution of the service sector rising in the composition of output to greater than 60 percent of it through recent years.

The previous data indicate rentier feature in the Iraqi economy and unilateralism clearly and deepen being Khaddmaa weak production and this is deepening with every rise in oil revenues for a number of reasons the most important increase in current expenditure in the general budget and thus increase consumer spending due to the high rate of per capita income, as well as Therefore, the continuing weakness in the productive apparatus because of the flexibility of Tqadamh and the disruption of many of his joints leads to the inability to possible rapid response in aggregate demand, making it turn into overseas through imports that deepen our dependence on oil from the new. And in front of all of this it is possible if the solution?

Simply, in order to motivate decision-makers and researchers to stop at this topic, which is an important input for economic reform say: We have developed many strategies and that's good, but the question is what made ​​them? On the other hand, the former public budgets amounted to very large numbers and that's good, but what is also achieved by those budgets? Here is the investment law quench eighth Himth and amended more than once and offers attractive incentives for investors, this is good but the question is what has been achieved by him? Here is our wall Alkmarki still wide open eleven years ago but the question what do we want? And how long we will stay as well?

The application of the laws effectively and in accordance with the global experience of the modern is more important than the laws themselves legislation and this must stop him the government seriously if it wants success in economic reform and the development of the Iraqi economy on the right track through a long-term strategy entitled President advancement for cushion oil which may be a suitable opportunity today to announce them, especially with the lower prices witnessed in the oil market, which requires us to search for alternatives, especially in the long run.