Kaperoni looks at the RV, free float, and CBI issues. Oct 3
I thought I would try and put together something that tells us where we are at…
In recent days, many articles have surfaced that have changed the landscape of the Event. Whether an RV or free float, it appears that changes are in the works.
Here is what I see has happened…
I believe last year, and again this Spring (April), the CBI’s plan was an “overnight” RV at 1 to $1 or thereabouts. This was confirmed in the SIGIR report and various articles. We even had a video from economists in Iraq stating this was a “Staging Rate.” Which makes sense in many ways in order for Iraq to bring their currency to an international level, start the process of de-dollarization, and move the economy and investment forward.
Unfortunately, the GOI, and particularly, the CoM has been adamantly against this plan from the beginning and stopped it. Thanks can go out to Maliki for this as it’s his GOI and his CoM, which also included his economic advisor. They issued many statements as reasons why this should not proceed, which included that it would drain Iraq’s reserves, extensive counterfeiting, corruption, etc. In any event, they got their way despite the CBI’s autonomous independence. I think this plan was pretty much dead within a few weeks after the April incident.
In June 2012, the CBI held a high level Symposium attended by economists, banking experts, the CBI, etc. To come up with a new solution to achieve the same results...which is raising the value of the dinar to move the economy forward. A new plan that would address the complaints from the GOI and CoM and prevent them from stopping monetary policy and progress. That plan was kept under tight wraps until just last month when videos and articles started to surface from the June Symposium.
At DinarAlert, this team was aware of some of the new details, which we shared as we found them out...details which included a change from the RV to a free float. This information was sketchy at best as we don’t know if this is an interbanking (institutional) float or FOREX float, but nontheless we shared what we knew. We discussed how this would occur, which brought in an ECN network, or Market Maker, which was coined “facilitator” by Enorrste – the professor - and boy was he right on! Nobody else in this investment had a clue to the information we had. In fact, many disregarded it...thought we had lost our mind or refused to comment and kept pushing the RV.
In the last few days articles have surfaced, which in my mind no doubt put an end to the RV which would have been part of the “delete 3 zeros” Event. This quote confirms it…“taking into consideration that the Iraqi dinar is covered by more than sixty billion dollars can be increased day by day, which eventually lead to the disappearance of zeros automatically one after another and publicly come back to this topic again after several years of seeing positive returns that emerged due to the prudent policies and legislation.” And this one from the Arab Monetary Fund…“Confirmed the Arab Monetary Fund said Iraq from among the countries which depend on the system flotation orbit currency exchange,” and this final one… “He Alkrasna adopt all of Iraq, Tunisia, Algeria, Mauritania and Sudan system "floating orbit of exchange", where value is determined currency in the market, according to the forces of supply and demand, and the government to intervene when necessary to re-route the exchange rate, in line with a set of criteria including the status of the current account and currency reserves foreign, depends both Egypt and Yemen floating exchange system.”
There is clear indication that the decision was made to put off the new currency change (the one with Kurdish language) to 2014 or even 2015. I no longer think there is any chance that a “staging rate” will occur. For the very reasons the GOI/CoM is against it.
With this new plan came many logistical issues. I believe the Iraqi Banking Conference was a chance to finalize some of those issues with the participants needed to make this "new plan” work. A free float of the dinar to begin in very short order. As for currency in Iraq, the CBI already had smaller denominations from the original set of currency, which can be issued as the dinar rises. And a recent article about the condition of the current state of the dinar in Iraq tells us these two things… “And adds that the benefit the next two months will witness the withdrawal of currency damaged and replaced with new ones from the reservoir replacement and compensation” and “He points out that there are other solutions to include them central part of its future plans in the project to delete the zeros from the currency, which include put metal coins of small denominations as part of a restructuring of coins in Iraq, which are of greater benefit in use among citizens.” So there is a plan to support the currency as the rate rises in value.
The problem with this plan is it infuriates the GOI, primarily Maliki because he has not been able to stop the progress the CBI wants to implement supporting the economic growth within Iraq. As a result, Maliki has gone on a “witch hunt” to find some sort of corruption within the CBI...even going so far as to create a special committee to investigate the CBI. Maliki’s own party MP Jubouri has stated on numerous occasion he is certain that there is corruption within the CBI and they will expose it. This, in my opinion, is a clear attempt to not only stop the CBI’s plan, but to take over control of the CBI. Which would be disastrous in many ways if they succeed. Over the last few days, they have announced a “final report” was completed in this investigation. And today this quote came out from the White block, which is clearly part of the Maliki’s offensive move to stop the CBI… “Mayahi announced that the Committee's report will waste heads large and influential figures in the central bank, in addition to a number of banks.”
This does not leave us in a real good light. Though a new plan is in place for a free float of the Iraqi dinar, it is clear that Maliki does not want this to proceed and is doing whatever he can to stop it. Will he have success? Only time will tell.
I encourage this post to be shared. The key here is to get this information out. To get the gurus off the high rates and fake dates and convey the facts of what is really happening in this investment. Though it is not the news we all want to hear it is reality, and reality is better than crazy rates, dates, and false promises of substantial wealth overnight. There is huge potential for this to still work out in our best interest as the dinar rises in value over time (1 to $1 is very realistic in short order) in the new “free float” mechanism. As long as Maliki does not interfere.
Thanks, KAP, for a well presented summary of our current situation. I
agree with you 100% on your analysis. Along with the rest of you I
remain concerned about how much influence Maliki has or will have in
restraining Shabibi. However, given the fact that Shabibi has been
astute enough to enlist the support of the entire Parliament plus most
of the influential economists in the country prior to his "going
public" with these various conferences, it seems to me that he is
determined to move ahead with or without GOI approval.
It is also clear that Shabibi does not have the GOI behind him at this
point. This is evident in that he has set back the "remove the three
zeros" and the introduction of the new currency until at least 2014.
However, as we have stated in prior calls, the changing of the rate is
still in play and can occur at any time. Once he releases the
currency to float freely in the market, which is entirely his right to
do, Maliki will have no control over the rise in the value of the IQD.
And for us, that is all that matters. Once the rate is released we
need no longer concern ourselves with the petty rivalries within the
country itself. We must keep this in mind and keep our focus on the
rate change only. Everything else is just politics.