The International Energy: Lower oil prices may have ended, and the start of recovery

March 11, 2016 19:12
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The International Energy Agency said on Friday that oil prices may have reached their lowest levels and begin to recover with the accelerated pace of decline in production in the United States and other non-member producers in OPEC and the growth of the supply of Iranian supply at a lower rate than expected.
According to the agency, which coordinates energy policy for industrialized countries it is currently believed that the production from outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will fall by 750 thousand barrels per day in 2016 compared with 600 thousand barrels per day in the previous forecast. She added that US production alone would fall by 530 thousand barrels per day in 2016.
She said the IEA, which is based in Paris have "no clear signs that the market forces, achieved positive results and that the producers are reducing high cost of production."
In January, oil prices reached their lowest level since 2003, to below $ 30 a barrel due to oversupply caused by the US production boom in recent years and the decision of OPEC members to increase supplies to protect market share in the face of high cost rival producers.
Prices recovered later to $ 40 a barrel after OPEC's largest producer Saudi Arabia said Rca and the largest producers outside the organization they may Tjmdan production levels.
And it showed Energy Agency, OPEC production fell by 90 thousand barrels per day in February, due to production disruptions in Nigeria and Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, where the production of the three countries dropped overall by 350 thousand barrels per day.
"At the same time, Iran has been the return to the market less than what he said the Iranians. In February we believe that production [Iranian] increased 220 thousand barrels per day, and it seems at the moment that the return of Iran would be gradual."
Iran had pledged to add a million barrels a day to global supply after reaching an agreement with the West in January to ease sanctions imposed on the country over its nuclear program.
The agency noted that inventories in industrialized countries members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development fell in February for the first time in a year, despite a rise in crude stocks and floating storage units.
However, the IEA said it expects growth in global inventories of crude oil and petroleum products a lot in the first half of 2016 in the range of 1.5 to 1.9 million barrels per day, but will slow down to 0.2 million barrels per day in the second half compared with the estimated growth of 0.3 million barrels per day in the report the previous.
She said the International Energy "For the price, there may be light in another long dark tunnel, but do not allow us to ascertain the timing achieve the desired balance in the oil market at exactly 2017, it is clear that the direction of the current move is the right direction, although there was a long way to go to be cut."
And kept Energy Agency on its estimates of the growth in global oil demand in 2016 unchanged at 1.17 million barrels per day, or the equivalent of 1.2 percent of the total demand of 95.8 million barrels a day.
And demand growth slowed significantly from its highest level in nearly five years of 2.3 million bpd hit in the third quarter of 2015 and this slowdown is due to the decline in oil prices, but the growth rate is still close to the average in recent decades.
The IEA said "almost certain that the risks facing the global oil demand growth on the downside."
The agency predicted the stability of demand this year in the United States, the biggest oil consumer in the world, "but if prices continued to move in the upward trend recorded in recent times there may be more than doubled."
It is expected that China is the second largest source of demand in the world's growth of 330 thousand barrels per day this year, including well below the ten-year average of 440 thousand barrels per day.
The agency said, "We expect to contribute to India and other smaller Asian economies are not members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, with most growth in 2016, the fundamental factors for the growth of global demand is good but not very strong."