Oil prices continued to decline, or the beginning of the climb?

March 1, 2016 20:37
Hits: 50

Oil prices experienced during the past weeks, a significant increase, it is approaching while writing these words from $ 37 / barrel .. after that was six weeks ago, less than $ 27 / barrel .., an increase of $ 10 a barrel, and that means for Iraq, according to the current export rates Achehrih increase in resources by a billion dollars, is the most need. The question now .. Do you continue to climb true, some analysts say that prices actually reached the bottom and started to climb again, or will it continue the pressure on prices, factors to be kept in low rates.
Who can stand before curves prices will appreciate the speed at which the prices rise or crumble .. If we take what happened during the years 2014 and 2015, we will find that the price was $ 115 / barrel in May 2014, it collapsed in less than six months to $ / barrel in December 50 the second in 2015, rising to $ / barrel 65 at the beginning of May of the same year .. and then fell to $ / barrel 27 during the last ten days of January 2016, rising $ 10 a barrel in less than six weeks .. these are signs of difficulty to predict prices oil down or up.
Pressure factors is downward Basically, the first to increasing global inventories of oil, which reached its peak, and secondly weak growth rates in Europe, Japan, China and many other countries .. Unlike Trkabbat the annual growth rate in China fell from 6.9% to 6.3% .. Today there fear of the fact that for more shrinking global economies .. the issue is no longer just to lower imports of oil-producing countries, but shrinking economies of importing countries also tumbled .. a lot of investment not only in the oil sector, but began to move to growing sectors.
Doubled the production of shale oil operations in Texas when prices were above $ 100 / barrel and cost of shale oil production to $ 60-70 / barrel .. But after the price drop to about $ 30, the business began experiencing a recession, and the state has lost more than 60,000 jobs in the oil and gas sectors between November 2014 and November 2015, it was left far from excavators working only 236 excavator, after it was 900 excavator at the end of 2014 and more than 40 companies operating in the field of energy in the United States have declared bankruptcy since the beginning of 2015 . must, of course, not to be inferred from these facts the collapse of shale oil, it will continue and will seek to reduce costs to be able resistance in prices could reach 40-50 dollars / day, and this in turn factor for the rise in prices for current rates, but some experts argue that shale oil production will continue land will not be able to return to rise, but with 2017, when oil prices stabilize at current weak prices.
Thus, we see that interpretations of increasing the current prices may be due to lower US production rates at a rate of 600,000 barrels / day, and in the OPEC countries at a rate of 280,000 barrels / day .. and that contributed to absorb the amount of oil that Iran began pumping in the oil market after the lifting of the sanctions.
Perhaps the most important improvement in price factors is the meetings that I got to freeze the output states of "OPEC" and beyond, both in Doha between Russia and Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Qatar, or in Tehran between Iran and Iraq, Venezuela and Qatar, and the idea of ​​calling for an emergency meeting in the middle of this month, which had already been agreed Therefore, the most important themes is to control the markets again. Whatever the case, many analysts believe that the oil market data had been the radical changes require some time to understand it and understand the new equivalents.
Adel Abdul-Mahdi