BAGHDAD -morning economist believes that the real crisis in the global economy yet to come, said Thomas Dajesen speaking in front of more than 200 investor and economist in London last month:»collapse is coming, but we hope to happen two years from now.»What causes speech and concerns about a serious crisis in the world is falling commodity prices two-thirds level since the height of the peak recorded in 2014.
The worst price record oil as the price of Brent crude oil has fallen from $ 115 a barrel in the summer of 2014 to $ 27.70 in mid-January.
The experts believe that the global economy had previously faced similar crises in the past, but they also say that several factors, the most important oil combine to create the current crisis in the world just emerging from recession. In addition to oil, there is also the performance of China and the emerging world financial markets.
But Dajesen says that the current crisis is somewhat different from its predecessors «We are now in a totally unfamiliar and where, in the markets, the feelings of nature did not know previously» He added that unlike previous periods we see that the prices of basic commodities, stocks and credit conditions have become all facing dangerous are conditions of some thing, he said.
It was supposed to be a drop in oil prices, which lost 75 percent of its value, a positive effect for the world the consumer is that what happens is that this decline jeopardizes the finances of all exporting countries from Nigeria to Azerbaijan and threatens to declare shale oil companies in the United States bankruptcy. The problem here, according to experts, is that there is a vicious circle begins down oil prices, which creates problems affect all molecules world economy has been a very extensive and serious crisis.
The global economy and raises a lot of concern with major emerging countries in the world to show signs of a deterioration in the past six months, according to Olivier Blanchard, a veteran oil expert at the International Monetary Fund. Said Blanchard, who fund left last year after working in it for seven years«: China's growth rate is lower than announced officially and the performance of Russia and Brazil is very bad and South Africa stands on the threshold of a period of recession and even in relation to India, remember the expectations that may not perform well ».