Lower oil prices .. economies are protected, and the economics of open
Justify the drop in oil prices, a surplus of supply, and this is true .. It was the world premiere 95.16 million / barrels / day in January 2016, while 93.64 m / global demand b / d reached, and that the surplus of 1.52 m / b / d, ie 1.56 %, noting that the annual natural increase of demand is about 1.5 m / b / d .. but the issue of supply and demand are not abstract or absolute but relative. There are other factors that have a direct impact as well, especially the so-called flexibility Item Elastisty, market structures in terms of the nature of the sponsor of the commodity economy, or in terms of the fact that the market is vendors market or buyers, and Trkabbat future discoveries and new technologies, and factors of fear and speculation, etc. Perhaps the natural thing is to have supply over demand. And that all the classic economic schools were "production economics", as opposed to the school "Keynesian" after the Second World War, which began by focusing on demand and "market economics".
Yes, there is surplus production, or low demand, but this does not alone explain this rapid and significant decline in Alinvt.._khasossa prices when we know that oil as a commodity is weak flexibility inelastic, meaning that without it is difficult, and that the high price does not pay for the reluctance to buy it, as that going to alternatives is not Alshl.flanokhz examples of supply and demand such as grain. Only in January last estimates of the global total for 2015 of view, it was 3.02717 billion metric tons, while the consumption or demand is 2460.67 M.t.m, and that the surplus is 566.52 M.t.m, ie 18.7% of the output .. For the wheat for the same period the offer is 948.18m.t.m. And demand is 716.14 M.t.m. And that the surplus is 232.04 M.t.m, ie 24.4% of the production ... For rice, the offer is 573.97 M.t.m. While demand is 484.27 M.t.m., and that the surplus is 89.70 M.t.m, ie 15.6% of Alanteg.walqtun 213.62 million bales (lb480) and demand the weight of 110.94 million bales, the excess 102.86 million bales, ie 48.1% of the production . While the difference for oil much less so as explained above .. So why the price of oil falls so quickly, and rates, a weak flexibility? While this does not go down commodity prices (or other), but a little bit, but she sometimes goes up, even with a surplus .. a medium elasticities of goods, and even high. Vantage cars, for example, increased during the (2002-2012) of the 41 million cars a year to 63 million a year, or by 52%, while oil production rose only 16% for the same period .. did not go down car prices, but rose, while exposed to the vagaries of oil prices the rise and fall Alhadan.
Yes, the supply and demand plays an important role in determining the rates, but the oil alone is hardly unique to this excessive volatility .. do not happen to the "Mercedes" or the "CHEVROLET" which may be sold in the period 50 thousand dollars, for example, will be sold the same specifications with 10 thousand dollars through months or weeks .. or that tons of wheat, which has been sold to $ 400, will be sold to $ 80, And so on.
But the statistics confirm that when oil prices go up, they are often rise nominally, which is witnessing a lot of goods, but the case of oil heralded great disparities. Example: price of oil was 33.97 dollars / barrel in 1980, and this is equivalent to "fixed price" of $ / barrel 84.7 prices in 2007, which was (US $ / barrel 67.70, for fixed), and (US $ / barrel 68.13, for ongoing).
Therefore, we say that the interpretation of the phenomenon of large and rapid fluctuations in oil prices is not only a supply and demand .. but to one of the most important energy which today is the most dangerous and the most important sources of strategic goods. There protected economies, the economics of open .. and attack and counter-attack .. factors Binyanih and structures for oil markets, and shifts technology may be a historic confound markets or conducted a major adjustment for oil, storage and marketing strategies, and left it in front of an anonymous, it has not been clarified full tracks after. With the conviction that "market economics" quick and straightforward fact, but "production economics" will remain an essential foundation, it is necessary to impose rulings also in the medium and long term.