2016 .. the Iraqi state in the face of the threat of bankruptcy


Wednesday, 30th December 0.2015

Economic Adviser to the President of the Iraqi government did not exaggerated when expressed pessimism of the difficult economic situation in which it would be like Iraq in 2016 with falling cash reserves by half and that indications are that it will not be enough to drain the things the country for more than six months to come with the loss of Iraq, about 60 percent of real imports and threatening to declare the bankruptcy of the state over the next year if there is no remedy this dangerous situation.

With the serious decline in world oil prices, which dropped from $ 40 a barrel in a country that relies economics by 90 percent on the source of oil in addition to the high costs of the war against al "Daash" and where leading the Central Bank of Iraq sales of the dollar during the five days a week, including up to $ 4 billion a month, while the income of the real country does not exceed two billion dollars a month means that the country is experiencing a shortage of hard currency per month by about two billion dollars in conjunction with the lack of real firm measures to fight corruption in state agencies big and waste of public money.

In discussing Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi of the President and members of the Parliamentary Finance Committee a few days before the draft general budget of the country law it has acknowledged that the real resources of the country have fallen by 60 percent which is currently forcing the government to continue to pressure costs and limited to the priorities of which, such as salaries and the fight against terrorism and health.

Seeks Iraqi government is to halt the dollar auction, organized by the central bank after it began to unfold her control mafias corruption is made ​​up of influential in power, political parties and which confirms the information that he became the epicenter from which two-thirds of operations corruption in the country but Informed sources predicted in an interview with "Culture" to resist these Influentials stop the auction.

The central bank sold $ 314 billion

Information confirms that the central bank had sold to private banks since 2006 and until 2014 more than $ 314 billion and recognized by the Secretary-General of the Council of Ministers, which serves as governor of the current Central Bank on the Keywords, the only 5 percent of the auction transfers to overseas real and the rest are what are known as the phenomenon of volatile instruments any incorrect or is issued originally hence can detect disaster leaking this quantum of dollars out of Iraq and into Iran and Syria to rescue their economies from bankruptcy, especially in the era of the former government of Prime Second Minister Nuri al-Maliki.

The most dangerous Mafi Dollar selling at auction operations is caused by the decline in reserves of foreign exchange, which is governed by the central bank in international banks from 88 billion to 40 billion confirms that there are clouds of these deposits despite the fact that the law on the Bank prevents the government or any other agency of Manipulation of these precautions on the grounds that they cover the national currency.

The House of Representatives currently investigating the smuggling of about 200 billion dollars from Iraq to other countries between 2005 and 2014. The Committee of the parliamentary fact-finding for the Development Fund for Iraq had expressed earlier expressed doubts that the financial corruption funds smuggled abroad through remittances to sell the central bank auction. He also predicted the International Monetary Fund earlier this year for Iraq and the arrival of the cash reserves to $ 40 billion at the end of this year out of $ 88 billion.

Local banks evade the dollar overseas

Also been charged local banks smuggling dollar operations amount to money laundering crimes, where there is lawlessness deliberate in not checking sources of funds that enter the process of buying the dollar and where to go beyond it.

And sells the CBI between 200 and 300 million dollars of hard currency in the weekly five sessions and this means that what sells Iraq of hard currency per month exceeds $ 4 billion in real income of the country currently does not exceed two billion dollars a month only and therefore Iraq is witnessing a shortage of hard currency per month by about two billion dollars.

What raises Experts fear is the announcement by the central bank governor recently that Iraq possessed of hard currency enough to cover imports only six months according to international standards and that the central bank announced last month its intention to issue international bonds two billion dollars over the next year in 2016 with condensation Baghdad steps to borrow from international institutions to cover the deficit Financial terms of the financial crisis prompted the Iraqi government to freeze thousands of projects, while the official is estimated to reach the deficit in the current year budget of about $ 23 billion is expected to register the country next year like 2016.

Iraqi funds under the tutelage of the International Monetary Fund

Has been forced those situations Iraq to put his money under the tutelage of the International Monetary Fund, which declared that Iraq's reserves of hard currency will not be enough for him for more than nine months Mayda country on the doors of bankruptcy.

Iraq has agreed with the IMF recently on Iraq Revenue Watch and expenses which will result in the imposition of operations reduce spending and reduce the country's budget deficit which is expected to close to 12 percent of next year's economic activity.

Has become the financial pressure on Iraq heavy as any large loan from the IMF for Iraq will come the conditions imposed on the Iraqi government cut support energy prices, which include fuels and fuel such as benzene, etc. The reform of state-owned enterprises which steps may be difficult at the political level and provoke popular protests will have a serious impact on the stability and the fate of the government of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi.

Under Iraq's agreement with the IMF to impose trusteeship on Iraq fiscal policies Economic and next in 2016 with promises to provide a loan to Iraq next month, $ 1.2 billion to improve the classification of Iraq in front of international institutions reducing interest rates on the bonds intended to put on the market. This will prompt Iraq to issue bonds worth $ 6 billion next year to meet budget deficit of $ 23 billion will be five of them raised in the domestic market and the rest in the international market.

Documents Chalabi about the corruption of the central bank auction of dollars are currently being investigated in the documents of corruption was left behind by the President of the Conference Iraqi National Chairman of the Finance Committee in the House of Representatives Ahmad Chalabi, shortly before his death last month, to take responsibility for the consequences of the collapse of the financial structure of the country to the previous government and the central bank is described by gangs that control the market price .. "

The cause of the economic collapse is the period of rule between 2006 and 2014 (a period in the states of al-Maliki as prime minister), where Iraq entered the amount of $ 551 billion and the government has imported a total of $ 115 billion and the central bank sold to banks and civil amount of $ 312 billion, adding that "This is the amount you missed ($ 312 billion), he could build a cash reserve.

Chalabi revealed that the limbs political pressure on the central bank to increase private banks allowances auctions to meet the amounts and there memorandums within the Central Bank of the names of these politicians from the House of Representatives and the government. The bank did not deny it rushed to issue a press release in which to take the right of banks and companies violating legal action in this matter confirmed included the establishment of lawsuits and the imposition of heavy fines ..

He explained that the bank audit teams are continuing their work in this field in coordination with the competent authorities.

Government adviser pessimistic and Vice significant risks reveal

Here they confirm the appearance of Mohammed Saleh came economic adviser Ebadi pessimism days ahead of the difficult economic situation in which it would be like Iraq in 2016 .. He explained told the "long Bryce" Iraqi "The budget for Iraq in the current 2015 is priced a barrel of oil for $ 56 while it was being sold for less than $ 49 during the first nine months of them which form a burden born large deficit the government was forced to bear the consequences ".. stressing the lack of optimism about the economic reality of Iraq over the next year in 2016 in light of the continued fall in oil prices global markets require to continue to pressure costs and limited to those which have priority, such as salaries and the fight against terrorism and health.

He noted that the government does not have a magic wand to transform the Iraqi economy to agricultural and industrial after decades of underdevelopment and neglect of diversifying sources of national income and the failure to adopt sound economic politicians, whether imposed Iraq or because of the current circumstances.

Perhaps the most serious warning fired by a member of the economic and investment commission parliamentary olive-Dulaimi said in a press conference held at the parliament building in Baghdad a few days ago while confirmed that Iraq's imports of oil sales amounted to 120 million dollars a day and auction currency sells $ 200 million a day and this disaster real because there are 80 million withdrawn from the Central Bank reserves a day.

It is noteworthy that world oil prices have seen a sharp decline is the lowest in seven years in the wake of the failure of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries members (OPEC) in the fourth of this month to agree on the volume of production and processing glut growing offers During their meeting at the organization's headquarters in the Austrian capital Vienna.

Has dropped the price of Brent crude (Universal Brent crude) by $ 1.96 up to the close of $ 41.05 while totaled US light crude (the average West Texas) to $ 37.95 a barrel, down by $ 2.02 after that aired before days to $ 37.88.