The International Energy: Iraq world's fastest growing oil production

19 November 2015

Industry experts predicted that Iraq is increasing its production of oil in 2016 albeit in less dramatic this year, making it the battle of market share raging between OPEC member countries and its competitors from outside, a battle that was forced because of Baghdad to sell some crude types at a price low up to $ 30 a barrel.

Iraq and built its budget for 2016 on the basis of export 3.6 million barrels at an average price of $ 45 but thinks amending budget expenditures, estimated at 106 trillion to reduce the deficit of 22.7 trillion dinars, equivalent to 21% of total expenditures.
A report by Reuters, that "Iraq's production jumped in 2015 by about 500 thousand barrels per day, equivalent to 13 percent according to the International Energy Agency, making Iraq a source of faster growth in production in the world and an important locomotive for increased OPEC production.

The report added, "It is likely that this growth is moving towards recording a modest increase next year, which will ease downward on prices, which are approaching from the low levels recorded in 2009, the pressure, but the lifting of sanctions on Iran or calm the violence in Libya, it is possible that OPEC production increases more If Saudi Arabia did not reduce or other members of the Organization produced.

He said Eugene Lendl analyst at [ Energy in Vienna, said that "the stability of Iraq's production of growth or height is limited, and will create some possibilities of increasing prices, but if you say another Iran, while Libya remains another paper serious."

He added, "The South fields produce most Iraqi oil as the distance from the conflict zones in other parts of the country allowed to continue in production and make it registered a record volume of exports, most recently in July when the sale of 3.064 million barrels per day.

A source from the Iraqi oil Reuters Gaza, said that "Iraq plans to export between 3 and 3.2 million barrels per day from the south in 2016, but declined to give a forecast for exports from northern Iraq, which resumed in late 2014 and increased to about 600 thousand barrels per day, in spite of tensions between Baghdad and the Kurdistan region.

And surprised Iraqi production volume growth this year, many observers, in addition, any slowdown in 2016 and the volume of production growth in Iran do not miss the thought OPEC delegates who will attend the meetings of the Organization on the fourth of December next to discuss production policy size.

One delegate said, "The Iraqis need to inform OPEC to plan for next year and the Iranians have not seen anyone to now on the quantities that they can already pumped, noting that" the production of these two countries is important for OPEC to take a decision. "

However, the delegate added, that "it is unlikely OPEC to cut production."

He continued, "The Iraqi exports declined due to decades of war and sanctions, and comes after growth investments from oil companies in the southern fields and the resumption of exports from the north.

South shipments jumped in June after the partition of Iraq crude into two types of Basra heavy crude and Basrah Light crude to resolve matters relating to quality, and this allowed for some companies such as Lukoil to increase production.

And other operating companies, including [BP] and [Royal Dutch Shell] and [ExxonMobil] and [Eni] in the southern fields under service contracts under which you get on a fixed dollar fee on production, according to Reuters.

Because of the fall in oil prices of more than 50 percent of the more than $ 100 a barrel in mid-2014 and the high cost of the war being waged against al-Iraq Daash pay dues to oil companies is now more difficult than it has to cut spending.

And it reduced the company [BP] develop the Rumaila field budget by $ 2.5 billion to a billion dollars this year, as the company braced for the possibility of recording a significant increase in the production of Iraq in 2016.

He said Michael Townsend head [BP] in the Middle East, "it is difficult to see a significant increase in production next year."

Shell does not expect any growth in the Majnoon field, which holds the production of it, where and Atselar said Martin, head of the integrated gas operations in the company, "We currently look forward to stable levels of crazy."

Others believe executives working in southern Iraq, too, that "production will stabilize in Iraq next year little changed, while some warn of falling production by the second half of 2017 due to declining investment."

Iraq has all what motivates to continue production at full capacity where the actual price is less than benchmark crude prices.
And at least the official price for the sale of Basra heavy crude of $ 10.40 a barrel for Brent crude for shipment in December. According to sources, "The shipments are sold at a lower price dollar or two for the official selling price of no less than $ 30 a barrel."

Iraq and Saudi Arabia occupied the position as the second largest oil exporter to Europe after Russia and Iran have already prepared a list of customers to buy its oil as soon as it lifts the sanctions, according to the International Energy Agency, which will remain under price pressure is likely.

The IAEA has said, "For this reason it is likely to increase price competition among producers."

It is uncertain occurrence smooth progress in Iraq's exports, it is likely that the escalation of the conflict between Baghdad and Erbil on shipments coming from the north affects even though the supply has increased in spite of some sabotage attacks and tensions.

Traders say that this growth may continue next year, from a purely technical terms.

Lendl said, "away from the Basra do not expect more than 3.2 million barrels per day of exports, from the north, and this is what surprises may come of it."

Updated on November 19, 2015 | Source: Agency all of Iraq news |