The credit rating agency expects the growth of Iraq's economy 8% over 4 years

News Source: Ali Abd al-Salman

September 22, 2015 8:04

I expected Moody's credit rating, to increase Iraq's oil production at a rate of 10% annually to reach about 5 million barrels per day by the year 2019, in conjunction with the non-oil growth from 2016 recovery onwards, and this will help to raise real GDP growth rate to about 8 % per year between 2016 and 2019.

She Moody's said in a statement, seen by Twilight News, on Monday, that the Iraqi economy suffers from a lack of diversification, where oil accounts for 50% of GDP, and nearly 100% of exports, also dominated sector year on the non-oil sector, and the form of manufacturing and construction only 10% of GDP in 2014. In 2014, real GDP in Iraq fell by 2.1%, driven by a sharp contraction in the non-oil growth, while oil production has continued to grow by about 4.5% . and damaged government in Iraq revenue because of the decline in oil prices since mid-2014, where oil accounts for about 90% of total revenue.

Moody's expects that the government of Iraq revenues fall by 35% in 2015, compared with 2014, bringing the budget deficit to 18% of GDP GDP.

In spite of the growth of oil exports in Iraq, probably in 2016, the fiscal deficit will remain at about 15% of GDP, according to a Moody's statement.

According to Moody's, it said it would finance this deficit to raise the government's debt ratio to about 79 % of GDP by the end of 2016 and expects Moody's, retreating government debt Iraq ratio at a later time, to less than 70% of GDP in 2019, thanks to high oil prices and production, however, government revenues will continue to be vulnerable to price fluctuations oil.

According to statistical review issued by BBC Worldwide has the situation of energy in the world for 2015, which, Iraq oil reserves confirmed amounted to 150 billion barrels in 2014, for occupies fifth place in the world, accounting for 8.8% of the world's proven reserves.

Moody's said, he was given rated temporarily bonds that the government decided issued in dollars (Caa1), which means high risk, and look stable outlook. Iraq plans issuance of international bonds by about $ 6 billion, for the first time in 9 years, to finance the budget deficit, due to falling oil prices and its war against al Daash.