Arab Monetary Fund: growth in the region of 2.8 and 3.5 percent in 2015 and 2016

Expected «AMF» the growth of the economies of the Arab countries as a group by 2.8 percent this year and rise to 3.5 percent next year, stressing that the GCC countries will be less affected by a decline in oil prices from other producing and oil-exporting Arab countries and raw at the time did not witness the global economy during the first half of the year improved markedly as a result of several factors.

Fund noted in a report issued yesterday about «the prospects of the Arab economy», including an update to the expectations of economic growth and inflation during 2015 and 2016, pointing out that global economic activity has not seen a significant improvement during the first half of the year as opposed to what was expected from a number of international institutions.

Fund reported that the September version of his report, including an update to the expectations of economic growth and trends in the evolution of domestic prices in the Arab countries during 2015 and 2016 to support decision-makers in the Arab countries.

The report stated: «global economic growth is expected at about 3.8 percent in 2016 in light of the anticipated improvement in the growth of developed and developing countries rate and emerging market economies alike,» pointing out that the expected international trade growth will be 4.1 percent this year and 4. 6 percent next year, which is much lower compared to international trade recorded growth rates before the global financial crisis, which accounted for three times the international trade recorded growth rates currently.

The report considered that the global oil markets continues to be affected to recover the fragile global economy and the pressures of an abundance of oil supplies, despite the improvement in world prices for oil levels during the second quarter of the year compared to the first quarter, but the average prices recorded during the current year are still lower than those recorded during the years 2013 and 2014 by about $ 50 and $ 40 a barrel respectively.

The report added that these developments will affect the global demand levels and then in the performance of Arab economies during 2015 and 2016, especially in the light of the total Arab exports contribute roughly 53 percent of the total demand and rising relative importance of oil revenues to 68 percent of total public revenues to Arab countries as a group.

He predicted «AMF» decline in output growth at constant prices for the Arab States of the Petroleum Exporting rate to 2.7 percent in 2015 compared to about 3 percent in 2014 registered growth, with the continuing disparity in the pace achieved growth within the Arab Group, stressing that the GCC economies affected would be a lesser extent, lower oil prices compared to other Arab countries oil, whether as a result of some asylum to increase production during the year or to the keenness of a number of governments of these countries to adopt fiscal policies adverse economic cycles to support economic growth.

He pointed to the potential drops sharply to the rate of the economies of the GCC growth to around 3 percent this year, compared to 3.4 percent growth rate achieved in 2014. He predicted GDP for other Arab oil-exporting countries shrinking with the exception of Algeria, reflecting the impact of the decline in world prices for oil and gas on the economies of these countries, which exacerbated internal developments in these countries.

Believes that the growth of oil-importing Arab countries rate, which was witnessed unfavorable developments, will rise to 3.4 percent this year, compared with 2.5 percent last year registered growth as a result benefit from the relative stability achieved in some of them, and the positive impact resulting from the implementation of a number of reforms economic, as well as some relatively take advantage of low global oil prices.

The fund is expected to increase the pace of economic growth in the Arab countries as a group to about 3.5 percent in 2016 in light of the expected improvement of economic activities in both sets of the Arab oil-exporting countries and importing alike.

He predicted that reflected the recovery of oil prices during 2016 positively on levels of economic activity in the oil-exporting countries that are likely to grow the trend rate comes back upward to 3.4 percent, benefiting from the expected rise in the growth of economic activity in the Gulf States by about 3.7 percent in light of the increase expected income hydrocarbon and accelerated implementation of a number of large investment projects under the plans that are being implemented to increase the diversification of economic activity levels.

It guessed report decline in the inflation rate in the Arab countries as a group to 7.4 percent this year, compared with 8.2 percent in 2014, pointing to the existence of a number of factors that would reduce inflationary pressures in the Arab countries as a group in the current year, including the imported inflation component that is low of the most important determinants of inflation in a number of Arab countries, whether as a result of falling oil prices and food commodities or benefit as a result of some Arab countries that peg their currencies to rise in value of the dollar against other major currencies.

As pointed out in this regard to the presence of relatively factors may limit the impact of the expected decline in the general price level in the Arab countries as a group, including the emergence of inflationary pressures resulting from supply shocks in some Arab countries as a result of internal developments.

It is expected to witness a group of major oil-exporting Arab countries rise in the rate of inflation to about 4 percent this year, with trends in the evolution of domestic prices within the group countries contrast.

While the expected decline in inflation rates in the GCC countries to 2.4 percent this year, is expected to rise in a range of other Arab oil-exporting countries to 4.3 percent.

In contrast expected decline in inflation in oil-importing Arab countries during this year to 10.7 percent