Abdul-Mahdi: difficult to predict oil prices and falling to $ 20 9/15/2015
Abdul-Mahdi: difficult to predict oil prices and falling to $ 20
[Baghdad-where] - Oil Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi, ruled out the possibility of determining crude oil prices in world markets during this period. Iraq is the second largest oil exporter in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Said Abdul-Mahdi, in an article entitled [fluctuation of oil prices between secondary causes and basic, that "fluctuating oil prices, with a tendency to fall for several weeks, dropped the reference oil Bryant of about 60 Dolarallbrmel About two months ago, to $ 48-49 a barrel these days, since the factors that drive the prices are still factors it is crucial, so Alterkabbat factors unknowns are the most remained impact on prices, waiting for either low Ttelmush markets in width, or return vital to the economies of basic, such as China, India, Japan and Europe, or the height of the US Federal Reserve interest rate."
He added," According to [Baker Hugh] [large oil Foundation], the past week saw out 10 other excavators, bringing the total came from oil rigs in the United States 940 excavator after The 1592 excavator by hitting on 11 of September this to 652 excavator, and is an indication for the exit of more wells and investments in the rocky oils, and thus a slight decline in US production, after it led to increase production and supply around the year for a lower price before.
"He said Abdul-Mahdi said "the coming of the news out these rigs to launch enthusiastic about the price increase, but when he announced a decline in global sales of cars, got a counter pressure to the downside, Such news plays an important role in market speculation increase or decrease, so to say that it is difficult to give Trkabbat correct for the price, what We have not reached a decisive conclusion about the conditions of macro and micro economics, and not side factors or subsidiary, Valmdharbh no matter how can not adopt prices or stable markets from which estimates, upon which public policies and investments.
"He stressed that" oil is a strategic commodity which is still the most important source for power generation in the world, occupying more than 36% of the total energy sources, followed by coal, gas, and a total of more than 80% of energy sources, and then come other nuclear and solar and wind energy sources, etc. There is no doubt that speculation and sub-factors and secondary other will remain short-term and can not advance or stabilize the prices to be a substitute for economic factors, medium and long term.
"He said the oil minister, said that" increasing the supply factor is the basis for a big factor, but it does not apply exclusively on economic factors Kmadlat growth and the increasing need for energy, including oil himself, The surplus in the presentation and production of oil, like the rest of the goods, not the only factor for the drop in prices is the compressor factor is not decisive, it is true that the surplus was not at the current level, but oil prices remained high during the first years of this decade, despite the presence of the surplus.
"He continued," The most important factor is a vital economies and their ability to absorb the surplus. China alone absorbed more than 40% of the increases in production for the period 2000-2014, when the growth rates high, it wants anticipation and talk about the fall in oil prices to $ 20 or $ 30 that explains that is not on speculation or surplus is currently only, but also take into account state of the global economy, that they will pass phase stagnation and contraction or return of starting and high growth rates.
"He added that" With the first option, surplus and factors of short-term speculative play a role in pushing prices downward, and in this case will be affected surely budgets producing countries, Middle East and others, Iraq inter alia, but what will be affected the most is marginal oils such as oil shale or alternative energy. Vaclav produce oils Middle East are $ 2.15 a barrel, while the fold that of other sources.
"He concluded by Abdul-Mahdi article by saying" all this will push for improved rates, after having to cut production from traditional sources, or from new sources, or both, either economies regained its vitality, it will coexist with surplus production and supply, and will be able to click on the absorption toward improved prices again, ".