" The Dinar Daily ", Tuesday, 20 May 2014
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  1. #1

    " The Dinar Daily ", Tuesday, 20 May 2014

    It is EVICT MALIKI DAY + TWENTY (20) or " E - M DAY +20 ".

    ELECTION RESULTS , CERTIFIED OR UNCERTIFIED ?

    The Iraq Elections Result: Maliki’s Complicated Win

    Posted by Reidar Visser on Monday, 19 May 2014 21:23


    The uncertified result of Iraq’s parliamentary elections, released by the election commission today, cannot be described as anything other than a victory for the incumbent prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki.

    Compared with 2010, Maliki increased his share of seats in the Iraqi parliament from 89 to 94. This quite despite the fact that Maliki experienced numerous defections from his list before the elections and therefore fielded a much slimmer electoral coalition than in 2010. His success can hardly be translated as anything other than an indication of his continued popularity among voters despite growing unease about his rule among political opponents.

    ** SEE CHART ***

    Not only did Maliki manage to increase the size of his parliamentary contingent. His political enemies also look far more fragmented than before. In the Shiite camp, the Sadrist saw their bloc reduced by about a quarter of its previous size, whereas ISCI, despite making something of a comeback, was unable to garner more than 30 seats. Among the Sunnis, parliament speaker Nujayfi failed to emerge as the community leader he had been dreaming of, with Shiite secularist Ayyad Allawi continuing to appeal to secularists of Sunni and Shiite backgrounds alike. Even the Kurds have seen a greater degree of formal fragmentation than before (though a theoretical combined bloc strength of more than 60 seats is possible if they stay united and win over minority representatives as in the past). All in all, the group of parties that were on the verge of succeeding with a vote of no confidence against Maliki in 2012 now look weaker.

    The question now, however, is what Maliki can do with this impressive victory.

    Prior to the elections, a main debate was whether the next Iraqi government should be a power-sharing or a majority one. Maliki has been vocal in his expression for a smaller, majority government. Theoretically, he can also achieve it with these results, albeit not very easily. If Maliki stayed true to the “political majority” concept, it would involve gathering blocs that agreed with his vision of relatively centralized rule in Iraq, including a degree of central control of the oil sector throughout the country including Kurdistan. In theory, this could involve his own bloc, the Sadrists, smaller Shiite parties (Jaafari, Fadila, Sadiqun etc.), the Sunni party of Saleh al-Mutlak, parts of the Allawi list, as well as the many smaller minority and other lists (an unprecedented mass of some 40 deputies) that could help him reach the 165 absolute majority mark needed to form a government. In practice, though, the personal dislike of Maliki among many Sadrists and members of the Allawi list could make this prospect very difficult. Without them, his majority would be extremely slim, fragmented and vulnerable.

    The point is, though, that with numbers like this, Maliki is likely to try hard to form some kind of majority government before considering other alternatives. One possibility he is likely to try is to redefine “political majority” in a looser, more opportunistic way, involving basically a Yes to a third Maliki term. With the right kind of deal he might be able to get the Kurds on board for this, thereby succeeding in keeping Shiite enemies – and Ammar al-Hakim in particular – on the sidelines. The problem, of course, is that much of Maliki’s political majority rhetoric centered precisely on defending the prerogatives of Baghdad with respect to controversial issues relating to foreign oil companies operating in Kurdistan.

    Given these potential complications, it cannot escape notice that, in an unprecedented situation, the combined Iraqi Shiite Islamist parties now enjoy a theoretical option of forming a majority government. Together they have more than the 165 votes required for an absolute majority, meaning the question of reconstituting the pan-Shiite National Alliance will inevitably hit the agenda if Maliki fails in his other efforts. Indeed, such movements are already underway, and they could certainly gather steam if Maliki’s majoritarian dreams go nowhere. It has to be stressed though, that with Maliki’s strong showing in these elections compared with everyone else, the option of simply substituting him with someone more palatable to the Hakim and Sadrist camps is less relevant than it was prior to the elections. If everything else fails, Iran may well want to strongarm the Sadrists into accepting a third term for Maliki, which would have a reasonable parliamentary prospect with or without Hakim. It could also invite larger numbers of Kurds and Sunnis in, in which case it might well end up looking somewhat similar to the previous, oversized power-sharing governments formed in 2006 and 2010.

    Meanwhile, the election result will be submitted for legal certification. In 2010, that process lasted more than 2 months, significantly delaying the process of government formation. Symptomatically, ISCI has already signaled that it may challenge the counting of the votes – something which will certainly not do anything to bring them closer to Maliki in the short term.


    *** " After the conclusion of national elections, the Iraqi constitution stipulates that the CoR ( Council of Representatives / Parliament ) will vote for senior positions in the Iraqi government, including the President, the Prime Minister and his deputies, and the cabinet. Although each CoR ( Council of Representatives / Parliament ) member contributes an individual vote, in practice this voting occurs only after an agreement has been reached among the senior leaders of the political groups, invoking party loyalty and voting discipline thereafter. The selection of the cabinet requires an absolute majority of the CoR ( Council of Representatives / Parliament ) members’ votes (165 votes). In the final negotiations over government formation, even small groups can play a decisive role if they are able to provide the last few votes a governing coalition needs to clear this constitutional hurdle. "

    REMEMBER, ............... Following the last election the new parliament opened on 14 June 2010 after the election on March 7th. Iraq set a record for the longest period of time without a government which lasted for about ten (10) months. ***

    NEWS / COMMENTARY : State of Law won 92 seats, the largest number of any parliamentary bloc, and was followed by two Shiite factions, the Sadrists with 33 seats and the Islamic Supreme Council in Iraq with 29 seats, according to results released today by the Independent High Electoral Commission. ....................

    “The National Alliance has definitely won a majority, more than 170 seats out of parliament’s 328 seats, and that allows us to form the next government,” al-Asadi said. “We have no intention to change or replace Nouri al-Maliki.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...aker-says.html

    *** WHAT IS MISLEADING HERE IS THAT THE " NATIONAL ALLIANCE " HAS NO COLLECTIVE CONSCIENCE OR WILL. THE " NATIONAL ALLIANCE " IS A HOUSE IN THE SAME NEIGHBORHOOD, BUT WITH A DIFFERENT STREET ADDRESS, A HOUSE DIVIDED AGAINST ITSELF AND WITHOUT A COMMON PROFILE, STATURE OR STANDING ON THE ISSUE OF THE IDENTITY OF THE NEXT PRIME MINISTER. ***

    *** SO WHAT ! ? : The State of Law " cluster " has the " right " to the nomination of the next prime minister​ at the " call or invitation " of the next duly elected President of Iraq, but the nomination of the next Prime Minister is not the same as election, i.e., it is NOT a procedural formality with a foregone conclusion BUT an actual vote requiring the 2/3 support of the new parliament. Arguably Maliki, like Allawi in 2010, may have the right to " A " nomination, but " THE " nomination that yields a legally sufficient supportive vote / election may not be Maliki. Another way of looking at the process, procedurally and substantively, is that Maliki likely has the 1/3 vote necessary to prevent the election of another nominee, BUT Maliki does not have the 2/3 vote necessary for the election of himself as the next Prime Minister. SO, what we have is a recipe and all the " fixings " for an extended process and gridlock in the Parliament. The foregoing is my considered and, I believe, reasonably well informed opinion. What will happen and does it make a difference in the timing of our long awaited liquidity event ? I do not know. chattels ***

    and

    MP: Maliki will not be able to form the next government in spite of getting a large number of seats



    BAGHDAD / NINA / The MP, of the Ahrar bloc, Hussein Hamham said that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki will not be able to form the next government in spite of getting a large number in the elections .

    He told the National Iraqi News Agency / NINA / "The Federal Court has interpreted the issue of government formation by the largest parliamentary bloc, which is formed after the elections, which does not mean the winning bloc, that shows that Maliki will face difficulties to form a government unless allied with other blocs to get half plus one . "

    He added, "The appeals' door will be open and this what the IHEC has confirmed. And all blocs will submit their appeals, pointing out that those appeals may change a lot of the winning blocs announced by the Commission yesterday ."

    It is mentioned that the IHEC has announced yesterday the results of the parliamentary elections which were held in 30 April, where the state of law got / 95 / seats in the next House of Representatives followed by Sadrist blocs collectively with / 34 / seats , while the citizen bloc came third winner by / 31 / seats.

    http://www.ninanews.com/english/News...ar95_VQ=HEHLHF

    and

    Othman: the political blocs have to accept the election results because they had accepted to hold it in unsuitable conditions

    20/05/2014 09:08:00

    BAGHDAD / NINA / The independent MP, of the coalition of Kurdish bloc Mahmoud Othman said that "The political blocs have to accept the results of elections because the accepted to hold it in unsuitable conditions ."

    He told the National Iraqi News Agency / NINA / "The Kurdish parties have achieved some their ambitions in the election results , noting that" all the blocs are currently considering the results of the elections and the possibility of appeal against it, despite the fact that each party has got a certain something in his favor . "

    Othman added , "despite the big difference in the results between the blocs and the state of law coalition, but that does not mean he will be able to form the next government , because the formation of the next government needs to be approved by most of the political blocs after conducting dialogues with each other, and how these dialogues will evolve , noting that" the dialogues of the blocs will determine the next government, whether a majority government or national partnership . "

    Othman predicted that "the formation of the government will take a long time, adding that some foreign parties would intervene in the formation of the government and will press on some parties for a certain position ."

    It is mentioned that the IHEC announced yesterday the results of the elections , where the state of law coalition got 95 seats , the citizen 31 and the Sadrists 34, Muttahidoon 23 seats , the Kurdistan Democratic Party 19, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) 19 and change Movement 9 , the National Coalition, led by Allawi 21 seats and Arabia, led by Mutlaq 10 seats. "

    http://www.ninanews.com/english/News...ar95_VQ=HEHLID
    Last edited by chattels; 05-20-2014 at 10:26 AM.



  2. #2

    Breaches accompanied the electoral process and accepting the results is forced

    Breaches accompanied the electoral process and accepting the results is forced

    20/05/2014 10:19:00

    BAGHDAD / NINA / The secretary-general of Justice and Reform Movement , Sheikh Abdullah Humaidi al-Yawar criticized what he described as breaches that accompanied the electoral process and fraud that took place in some centers.

    Yawar said in a press statement that: "The acceptance of the results is forced to keep the political process," expressing "hope that the results of the election result radical solutions to the reality of Iraq and lift the injustice and get away from sectarianism and division of the country."

    He said: "The door of alliances is opened to all winning blocs, which seeks to serve the country and the human dignity of Iraq."
    It is mentioned that the IHEC announced yesterday the results of the elections , where the state of law coalition got 95 seats , the citizen 31 and the Sadrists 34, Muttahidoon 23 seats , the Kurdistan Democratic Party 19, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) 19 and change Movement 9 , the National Coalition, led by Allawi 21 seats and Arabia, led by Mutlaq 10 seats. "

    http://www.ninanews.com/english/News...ar95_VQ=HEHLJD

  3. #3

    Kurdistan's Parliament votes on Nichervan and Qubad Talabani as head and his vice pro

    Kurdistan's Parliament votes on Nichervan and Qubad Talabani as head and his vice provincial government

    Arbil / NINA / Kurdistan region's parliament voted to entrust Nichervan Barzani to form the next provincial government.

    An informed source told the reporter of the National Iraqi News Agency / NINA / "The regional parliament voted also on, Qubad Talabani as vice president of the provincial government."

    The Kurdish Parliament adjourned its sessions to nominate the head the provincial government and his deputy more than once because of the failure to get a political consensus.

    http://www.ninanews.com/english/News...ar95_VQ=HEHLMJ

    * CONGRATULATIONS AND COMPLIMENTS TO KURDISTAN *

  4. #4

    UN praises announcement of elections results

    UN praises announcement of elections results

    Tuesday, 20 May 2014 11:22

    Baghdad (AIN) -The Special Representative of the United Nations Secretary-General for Iraq (SRSG), Mr. Nickolay Mladenov, welcomed the announcement by the Independent High Electoral Commission of the preliminary results of the Council of Representatives elections held on 30 April 2014

    “As the people of Iraq have now spoken, I call upon all elected representatives to work together for the future of Iraq”, he said.

    He reiterated his appreciation of the work done by the Independent High Electoral Commission and recalled that all potential complaints and disputes should be addressed through the established legal mechanisms in a fair and transparent manner and without undue political pressure.

    Mr. Mladenov reaffirmed the United Nations’ readiness to continue working closely with the newly elected Members of Parliament in pursuing the necessary reforms aimed at further enhancing the democratic process and addressing the country’s priorities.

    http://www.alliraqnews.com/en/index....tical&Itemid=2

    * I CONFESS THAT I FIND MYSELF THINKING, WONDERING AND HOPING THAT MAYBE ALL THE " WORLD " WANTED OR NEEDED TO SEE FROM IRAQ WAS OSTENSIBLY " FREE AND FAIR " ELECTIONS POST EVACUATION OF FOREIGN TROOPS AND THAT SUCH WILL BE " PROOF " OF SUFFICIENT SECURITY AND POLITICAL STABILITY TO " ALLOW " A REALITY RATE FOR THE IQD. AH, POSITIVE ILLUSION IS A WONDERFUL THING. *
    Last edited by chattels; 05-20-2014 at 10:48 AM.

  5. #5

    Muttahidoon coalition leaders meet today to discuss the situation of the coalition

    Muttahidoon coalition leaders meet today to discuss the situation of the coalition

    20/05/2014 12:44:00

    BAGHDAD / NINA/ The leaders of the united for reform coalition (Muttahidoon) , headed by Osama al-Nujaifi will meeting today to discuss the new situation of the coalition after the announcement of the election results.

    A source in the coalition told the National Iraqi News Agency / NINA /: "The coalition will set today the foundations for moves toward political forces to accelerate the formation of the next government."

    It is mentioned that the united for reform coalition won 23 seats, according to results announced by the Electoral Commission yesterday.

    http://www.ninanews.com/english/News...ar95_VQ=HEHMEH

    and

    Iraqiya Slate loses many seats in Parliamentary elections

    Monday, 19 May 2014 23:53

    Baghdad (AIN) –The blocs within the Iraqiya Slate which won 91 seats during the former parliamentary elections retreated into 54 seats during the current elections.

    The statistics of AIN based on the results announced by the Independent High Electoral Commission on Monday show that "Mutahidoun for Reforms got 23 seats, Wataniya Coalition won 21 seats while Arabiya Coalition won ten seats."

    http://www.alliraqnews.com/en/index....tical&Itemid=2

  6. #6

    Tariq Harb: the right of the vice president call for the convening of the new parliam

    Tariq Harb: the right of the vice president call for the convening of the new parliament, according to the Constitution

    Mon May 19 2014 23:52 | (Voice of Iraq)

    Baghdad - where

    Said legal expert Tareq Harb said in a statement today, the agency received all of Iraq [where], a copy of it, that "the Vice President of the Republic Dr. Khodair al accordance with the provisions of Articles 54.75 of the Constitution call the new parliament to convene by a presidential decree through [15] days from the date of authenticate the Federal Supreme Court on the election results, in accordance with the provisions of Article [93 \ VII of the Constitution, noting that the previous procedures and formalities are routine and Ojobeh by virtue of the Constitution and not Permissibility discretion. "

    The Independent Higher Commission for Elections announced today the results of the election where he got a coalition of state law, the Supreme seats have been made [95] seats.

    http://translate.googleusercontent.c...#ixzz32FVSxHYf

  7. #7

    Re: Tariq Harb: the right of the vice president call for the convening of the new par

    Thank you for bringing the News! I miss you chattels, and I hope you come back to the room soon!!!! (((Hugs)))

    Love ya!

  8. #8

    Re: Tariq Harb: the right of the vice president call for the convening of the new par

    Thanks for sharing your thoughts Chattels Been in this way tooo long ...10 yrs!!!) and still have a hard time understanding articles without someone analyzing them...lol. In all the years we have found this site ...and we have been to many.... to be the most logical and straightforward in telling it like it is of all.... with YOUR input as well as Poppy, BGG, Millionday and all the others!!

    We started in our 50s with this and now in our 60s and believe it was sent to us by God!!!

    God bless you and your family!!!

  9. #9

    Currency Auctions

    Currency Auctions

    Announcement No. (2677)

    The latest daily currency auction was held in the Central Bank of Iraq on the 20-5-2014 results were as follows:

    Details Notes
    Number of banks 19
    Auction price selling dinar / US$ 1166
    Auction price buying dinar / US$ -----
    Amount sold at auction price (US$) 247,169,000
    Amount purchased at Auction price (US$) -----
    Total offers for buying (US$) 247,169,000
    Total offers for selling (US$) -----

    Exchange rates ( * 1,222 Market Rate since May 4, 2014 : http://www.cbi.iq/documents/CBI_FORE...E_AUCTIONS.pdf )

    http://www.cbi.iq/index.php?pid=CurrencyAuctions

  10. #10

    6 blocks form a winning coalition "Union"

    6 blocks form a winning coalition "Union"

    Tue May 2014 08:51 | (Voice of Iraq)

    Baghdad (Iraq) / Future News
    Announced six blocks Iraqi political coalition headed by "Uniting for Reform" the formation of a unified alliance known as the "Union" is intended to form a "national vision to lead the country of sectarian and partisan composition of state and cultural civilization".
    A statement issued by the new coalition got "Future News", a copy of it "met the leaders of six political blocs to unite the visions and efforts, where the meeting comes at a historic moment comma, delicate and dangerous place us in the circle of responsibility in front of the Iraqi people, the content that we all live in one Iraq Safe civilized civilian. "
    He added that the EU aims to get rid of the icons and sectarian nationalism and narrow partisan, in the midst of tension permanent security and the loss of a chronic trust and conflict of power and compete for the spoils and poverty is increasing day after day until Iraq becomes a forest is not governed by the law and do not you seize values.
    He said that based on all of the above announce the leaders of blocs and political figures gathered for the emergence of a parliamentary alliance new collected concerns and common goals we launched it union national forces which will be brief as "Union" and which included (a coalition united for reform, Arab List, a list of Iraq, and the unit Sons of Iraq , the fulfillment of Anbar, MPs from other lists. "
    The statement added, "the door will remain open for those who wish the coalition to join him on in accordance with the vision and goals espoused by, as it was agreed to form a negotiating committee and the one carrying the demands of the Union of understanding with the parties and other political forces."

    http://translate.googleusercontent.c...#ixzz32G8F0n7I

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