Reconciliation between Washington and the Taliban: a positive step suspended
Reconciliation between Washington and the Taliban: a positive step suspended
05-07-2013 11:30 AM
Taliban recently opened an office in Doha after talks with the United States launched since the year 2011, and then frozen for more than a year for reasons including the United States insistence on preconditions and misunderstanding between the two parties and the opposition of the Afghan government and the divisions within the Taliban movement. What has changed now until the opening of the office? Why deal president Karzai passively with these developments?
Such as the Declaration of the Taliban admitted for the first time in public to sit down with officials of the Afghan government to negotiate an important event, the required condition since a long time to open the office. The Taliban leaders had occasional meetings with Afghan officials, but the new position of the Taliban, which has long denounced the Karzai regime and considered it "a puppet in the hands of the invaders," declared albeit indirectly, from acceptance to sit down to negotiate with him.
There are many possible reasons behind the change in public policy for the Taliban, including exhaustion after the war and the pressures of Afghan society and concern about the emergence of an anti-Taliban coalition, supported by the countries of the region. And its leaders feel resentful of their presence in exile and what they see as a manipulation on the part of the Pakistani army, they want a political position in Afghanistan and the international recognition of the Taliban as a legitimate political movement and are uneasy about the prospects for movement to become an international pariah again. Stenbi days in the future if the Taliban leaders are serious about the negotiations, but for pragmatists in an open office movement a step in the right direction.
Shift the U.S. position there is another factor, perhaps more importantly, a decline in the United States for its adherence to the need to abandon the Taliban publicly about al-Qaeda as a precondition for opening the office.
And some observers have highlighted the importance of the Taliban statement, which said that it would allow the use of Afghan territory to threaten other countries. According to the Guardian newspaper described a U.S. officials that "the first step in the distance the movement from international terrorism." But the Taliban have already identified these points many times in the past two years. In November to November 2011, said Mullah Omar, the leader of the isolated movement, "we do not intend to attack the other and the United States." In the month of April to April of last year, the Taliban issued a statement on al-Qaeda said: "We have no intention to attack anyone and will not allow anyone to use our territory to attack any party whatsoever."
But why is the United States now that the Taliban Disclaimer of al-Qaeda was a predictable outcome of the talks and is not a prerequisite to him?
At the first level, reflects the U.S. position that the current links between the Taliban and Al Qaeda are limited, and they do not share the same ideologies. In fact, not the Afghan Taliban movement at the national level never any attack outside Afghanistan, and there is no indication that it intends to do so. The United States also recognizes the magnitude of the pressures facing the leaders of the Taliban now, and many of them live in Pakistan and the fear that the explicit lead Tnlm the al-Qaeda to expose them to reprisals by extremists may destroy their lives.
But more importantly, there is now a growing recognition of the American degree of flexibility that show the Taliban today. In fact, the movement may be at the moment is stronger than it was before the intensification of the U.S. military campaign. According to the International Security Assistance Force to establish security in Afghanistan (ISAF), the rebels launched in 2012, double the number of attacks across the country compared to what it was in 2008, before increasing the size of U.S. forces, and witnessing attacks by the Taliban rise. In this regard, the security office said non-governmental organizations in Afghanistan that insurgent attacks in the first quarter of 2013 rose by 46 percent compared to the same period of 2012.
YOU HAVE GOT TO BE KIDDING ME!!!?
Another major factor enabled the opening of a rapprochement office - maybe transit - between Kabul and Doha. And long feared by President Karzai of movement to strengthen the office in Qatar Taliban's position in the international arena, with the marginalization of the Afghan government in the peace talks. However Qatari Afghan relations have improved, and mentions that more than a week ago, President Karzai met with former Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa, we announced the renewal of the cooperation on the peace process in Afghanistan. It is assumed that President Karzai had received adequate assurances in order to give the green light to open an office of the Taliban.
However, the strong objection later to open the office and suspension of security dialogue between Afghanistan and the United States indicates that things did not go quite as expected. But as long as the Taliban sought to establish an office bears the name of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. But Karzai expressed his indignation on the events, which he considered a Embassy opening a government-in-exile, not an office for talks with the Afghan government recognized.
And the future consequences of the process
Likely that the opening of the office gives impetus to the pragmatic Taliban leaders. It seems that it will be re-established dialogue includes at least the United States and the Taliban, has been expanded to include Afghan officials in a timely manner. But there are a number of reasons warrant caution in it.
After years of bitter conflict and the numerous peace initiatives and failed completely zero, confidence between the parties, which is hard to overcome. It is possible to question the leaders of Taliban militants in the heart of the military leadership and affiliates for sub-groups such as the Haqqani network 'and insurgents least arranged or rated in this transformation. Some of them have worked to disrupt and undermine any progress. The process of the assassination of the President of the Supreme Council for Peace, Professor Rabbani in September - September 2011, one of many attempts to obstruct prominent steps towards reconciliation, and we can expect more such efforts. May seek elements within the Afghan government and the "Northern Alliance" or the Pakistani army also to disrupt the talks, especially when the sense of marginalization or exclusion.
The best way to overcome these challenges is to organize a serious and structured dialogue and comprehensive seeks to build confidence between the parties and addresses controversial issues. To avoid falling into the misunderstandings that have hindered the progress of the talks in the past, the latter payment of dialogue that needs to be real mediators to facilitate the offer. And ensures the provision of brokerage elements of communication, support and continuous coordination - and to clarify the commitments the parties concerned with a view to assisting the parties to avoid potential pitfalls and reduce the likelihood of setbacks, such as a reaction President Karzai towards the open office.
At a certain level talks must include Pakistan as well. The log indicates the Pakistani military to provide sanctuary and support to the Afghan Taliban that support is essential to the success of the course of the talks. Even with the progress of the talks, raises many questions about the involvement of representatives of Afghan society, and the repercussions of any peace agreement on human rights, especially women and minorities, and how to activate the commitments made in the context of each agreement on the ground.
Another obstacle remaining: often be news about the so-called peace talks bad by virtue of the nature of the subject. And required the most successful peace processes years of secret discussions, as without maintaining confidentiality parties always feel they need to make a picture reflecting the strength for purposes Antkhabém. Show events in the past few days to achieve a small step forward - but there is still a great deal of hard work to wait.
America withdraw and Afghans are paying the price
Kabul - seeking both the United States and the Afghan government and the Taliban to achieve the greatest possible gains in order to reach a peace agreement before the withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan 12 years after the war. The United States will reduce its forces by half for up to 34 thousand soldiers in eight months. And manages 13 British base in Helmand province after they were troubled running 137 base. The rest of the NATO forces have withdrawn from that country already.
The deadline is approaching for the withdrawal of all foreign combat troops in December - December 2014 as it continues to Taliban attacks in Kabul and opened an office like a government-in-exile in the Qatari capital Doha.
Saw single موجدا, an analyst who served as an official in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in the government of the Taliban, which ruled the country from 1996 until 2001, that "American Taliban militants and not the ones who need these negotiations." "Without a peaceful settlement, the situation will deteriorate. The Taliban will intensify attacks, and more will fall from the rural areas under its control, and will become the main roads and unsafe food. "
He continued, "They think they are in this way will have the upper hand in any peace talks. As they say, "Americans have the time, but we have time. '"
And when the Taliban opened an office in Qatar and raised the flag it and used the name "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan," the wrath of Afghan President Hamid Karzai and suspended talks with the Americans and threatened to boycott the peace process as a whole.
And saw Bruce Riedel, Director of project Brookings Intelligence, that the failure of the United States in the management of the opening of the office in a series of reinforced doubts about the Obama administration's willingness to compromise. "The perception in the region is that Washington is seeking to hold a political process desperately make them willing to sacrifice the interests of the Afghan partner" in reference to President Hamid Karzai, adding that "the very concept of risk is currently circulating."
"We must become a process where Afghans talk to Afghans. Karzai said he would not talk. He wants negotiations with the Taliban to restructure itself into a political party. " The Pakistani writer Ahmed Rashid, who has written extensively about Afghanistan and the Taliban, The intransigence Karzai reflects anger Afghan wider, however, accused him of being part of the problem. Karzai added that "perception is always some sort of Taliban surrender him or a meeting of the Pashtun tribes recognizing the Taliban as their leader and put the traditional turban on his head."
"But it is clear that none of this will happen. Why not give the Taliban at a time when American troops exhausted, or to bow down in front of a man has been greater hatred? Karzai, however, refuses to accept anything less than that. "
According to a report issued by the International Crisis Group that "the main means of political expression for militants in the near future will continue to fight, not party politics."
Said Amir God safety, Gen. former Afghan, who turned to television personality said that with the approach of the year 2014, the Taliban is convinced that "success is going step by step with the American withdrawal (...) and their office politics in Qatar to make them bolder to do more operations to put pressure on the government to comply to their requests. " But others do not believe that the Taliban stuck all Winning threaded in her hand, despite the impending U.S. withdrawal and the weakness of the Afghan government, which faces a tough presidential election in April to April.
Said Kate Clark, a prominent analyst in Afghanistan for network analysts based in Kabul, "The Taliban exaggerates the appreciation for the capabilities and reduce the power of security forces to the Afghan government."
"They remember 1996 and how they controlled most of the country without a major fight. I do not think that the situation will be well again. They do not realize the difficulty of it, both with the American presence or non-presence. "
The Taliban remained silent since the opening of their office in Qatar, with the exception of their declaration of responsibility for the attack on the presidential palace and the American base.
The text of the Taliban, the author of five points on the desktop can be used to meet Afghan unspecified "timely" in what may be a reference to the possibility of research in their refusal to talk with representatives of the Karzai government, although it will not be soon
So then one has to ask themselves... What was the point of these war against the Taliban?... More to it than what we are being told... Believe me... And why we began this war is not for the reasons shared with the American public through the controlled media... The truth about this whole ME situation has been pointed out by some... But those who do are often vilified, and ridiculed as "conspiracy kook's." Well there have always been conspiracies... And the truth about matters are often not believed by the public at large because they cannot handle it... As Jack Nicholson declared in the film "A Few Good Men."
Tell me lies, tell me sweet little lies.... Sadly, misinformation is often believed much more so than the truth...