(*)BWM: well here we are with dates that continue to go by that were the absolute, had-to-happen, can't go past, no matter what, high water or not date with no RV. We still continue to hear the "two headed" theories of Iraq vs. the U.S. (or world as voted on by the controlling interest held by the United States). So who to believe?
BWM: The Iraq's-in-charge theory would like you to believe that we are waiting for the HCL, articles or the budget to be pubilically voted and published as the litmus test we are done. So let's look at the individual entities and determine where the blame would fall with Iraq.
BWM: First, the HCL which is supposed to help "draw the lines" as it would be for the distribution of oil income in the region and determine who has the rights to for their distributions. The biggest of concerns is the Kurdish region vs. Baghdad for the implementation of oil sales. We already know that the Kurds have begun making their own deals (and have been for quite some time) thus leaving us to believe one of two things, either the agreement is made or it's apparently not that important to the Kurds and Baghdad has no control over
• NOTE: HCL is the REVENUE AGREEMENT. THE provinces are divided up in ARTICLE 140 and this is where the "lines are drawn".. HCL is the percentage of MONEY each "Article 140 Province" will receive in oil revenues. Easy to get the two confused.. RED LILY
BWM: Power sharing (articles)... like this idea is ever going to work anyway. Let's face it, there's no way more than one middle-easterner is gonna handle being in charge in a room full of turbans. The thought has always been that the power sharing must be in place when in reality it is there it's just not been adhered to. Resolution for this will prolly not be seen until a signficant change in the government has taken place which needs other issues resolved (which really won't matter to us IMO because most of these "changes" will occur after the RV)
BWM: The budget concerns. Looking back at history, Iraq approved their budget over the last several years in 2010-1/26/10, 72.4 Billion, 2011-2/20/11, 82.6 Billion, 2012-2/23/12 100.5 Billion (dates from reuters.com articles). So understanding that they have "strayed" the last couple of years into late January/February scenario, what makes so many so positive it will happen by the end of the month.Their budgets are mainly extended lines based on the amount of oil production (bpd-barrels per day) and while expectations are that production will increase there are implications with the Kurdish region breakaway where a significant amount of the Iraqi oil exists.
BWM: The U.S. issues... honestly here I can't tell you all the excuses I've heard and not completely overwhelm your screen. We do know that there is a significant battle going on in Washington as to ALL the details though they elude us. There is discussion about how to spend the "spread", who's in charge, constitutionality implications and yes, even the you-dirty-low-down-shame of a you-know-what excuses.
BWM: Where do I personally think the problems lie? Well, if you had asked me that last couple of years (and some of you did) I would have told you I believed this was out of Iraq's hands for the most part. The most part being the fact that I do believe in the final scenario you will see Iraq "credited" or "reveal" things that they have been told to hold off on for some time. If anything over the last year with the information that I have heard I have an even firmer belief that in some way the final bell will come through outside entities who have controlled this like pinocchio's daddy.
BWM: My personal belief has been that all these things will come together as the "reveal" takes place and everyone can run to their corners and claim victory because their individual component came through. What purpose would it serve to see the HCL, budget, power sharing or Chapter 7 before you officially had an RV? Those would just be telling signs that this was coming down the pipeline and I don't think that's something they want to give away after all the years of smoke and mirrors.
BWM: In regards to Chap 7 especially, I don't think (while Iraq doesn't control this) there is enough trust in Iraq following through on other issues to allow them out of 7 until an RV has been processed through the system.
BWM: So I know what you're saying... But BWM you make it sound like it's years away still. Well hold the phone that's not my intent whatsoever. We have seen articles (yeah, I know I rolled my eyes too) saying that they will vote on this tomorrow, only to have it moved to Friday and then next week or month. These guys in parliament don't really do much if you haven't noticed between holidays and sunshine breaks. So what is the holdup? Well I think I've stated enough that they are waiting to be told when they can proceed. Let's face it, they have used some of the wildest excuses since I was in third grade to get out of voting or finalizing things.
BWM: The bottom line is I can't tell you how many contacts (like others have heard) have said everything that needs to be done is done. So, what's the holdup? Do we really think Iraq, who can't go two weeks without a fist fight during ladies night in parliament controls the fate of the global economy? Or perhaps the largest economic purchasing machine in the world is throwing it's gears into the mix trying to get the biggest piece of the pie... Again. I agree to an extent this is a battle... but that battle is not just limited to good vs. evil, it also pits democracy vs. communism, rich vs. rich, rich vs. poor, free vs. controlled and green vs. any other color money you want to throw in the till.
BWM: I know it's "positive" for some to throw out dates as to when this HAS to happen by. And I applaud those that have shown up the next day to stand trial for their errancies. Too often that has not been the case when the next day it's just like nothing had ever been said about it happening at that time. I would rather our positive approach should be giving each other hope through the idea that progress is proceeding without limiting ourselves to a particular time and date and the expectations that come with that event.
BWM: I know many of you are well past ready for this event and I don't just mean that from an expectant point of view. You have done your personal homework and are prepared for the diligence that will be required for YOUR success when this finally arrives. When that is we just don't know... We can believe in tomorrow without expectations. We can expect to be rewarded for our belief...