Does Kurdistan have the economic components of independence?



Ahmed Al-Dabbagh

The referendum was then held. To end a long-running debate about whether or not it will happen, and preliminary results that indicate a yes vote, but it is too early to take the territory of Kurdistan actually, and it takes two to three years to remove the belongings with the central government in Baghdad - according to some estimates. Economy is the backbone of any state, does the Kurdistan region actually has an economy that can rely on itself in managing the affairs of the Kurds? What about Kirkuk and its oil under its territory and will join its oil to the new state or not?

Economy of Iraqi Kurdistan without oil
Although the concept of a "state economy" may seem complex to some, it works in a simple dynamic, consisting of simple parts and many transactions that repeat repeatedly and billions of times.

These transactions generate three major forces that drive the economy of any country: production growth, And the cycle of short-term debt and the cycle of long-term debt, and these three forces and the differences between them can be calculated the strength of the country's economic.

Iraq, including the Kurdistan region in the entire economy depends on oil, where the sale of oil 95% of gross national income, Mohammed Reza Abbas »The region of Rhodes Tan, a semi-independent of Iraq since 1991, has not been able to diversify its economy despite the great security stability it enjoys compared to other provinces. It is true that the region is better off than the central government in terms of financial and administrative corruption, but it has not succeeded in eliminating it in its institutions

This is a very negative factor in the economy of any country. The largest share in the region's budget imports depends on the export of oil by 85-90%. Moreover, the region has not been able to establish an industrial or agricultural sector that satisfies the needs of the Kurdish citizen.

The KRG went on a road The rest of the Arab oil exporting countries rely increasingly on oil imports and the use of these resources in the import of consumer goods. Thus, after the deterioration of oil prices in the world market, the region's imports decreased from the sale of its oil and the work stopped about 6,000 projects in the region. As a result, The benefits of these projects are great.

Agricultural and industrial economy In Kurdistan

The Kurdistan region has abundant water and fertility of its land, but an official in the Ministry of Agriculture and Water Resources in the Kurdistan region revealed that his ministry was unable to develop food production in exchange for the increase in the population because of the budget deficit allocated to agriculture, and explained that 90% Of the food in the Kurdistan region is imported.

According to a report published on the site of the Kurdish channel «Rudaw» Kurdish government does not have a clear strategy for the development of the agricultural sector, where only 1.8% of the annual budget of the region allocated to the agricultural sector while "We have a policy and a strategy to develop local production, but we can not say that we have a plan for this, because there is no accurate statistics on the area of ​​orchards, farms, production volume, labor force, population and the need for products," said Hussein Hama Karim, director general of agriculture and orchards.
Balancing the necessary for projects in a timely manner ».

The head of the Organization of the modern peasants« Mam Fares Hussein »that the agricultural projects are no longer in the region and most of the plants that rely on local agricultural production has been closed for a while and became agricultural farms exploited very limited despite the existence of all the ingredients

The success of self-sufficiency in agricultural products, Hussein points out that human resources are available, fertile soil, surface water and groundwater are available throughout the year in the region, providing a variety of agricultural crops.

According to the Kurdish writer and researcher «Akko Hamakamir» in a report published by the Institute of The Kurdistan Region's economy has been unable to build a strong local economy capable of providing a solid foundation for building an independent state.

In fact, it has destroyed the traditional economy for the benefit of the country. "The economy of the Kurdistan Regional Government faces structural problems linked to corruption, lack of transparency, monopoly of markets and excessive interference in government affairs by party leaders in favor of influential companies or individuals," Hamakareem said.

"These problems have contributed to the spread of social injustice, creating a rich minority with close relations with the ruling parties, while the majority of the population remained poor, as well as large geographical disparities that were evidenced by the vast and large gap between urban and rural reconstruction."

The development of the Kurdistan geopolitical region

Geographically, Kurdistan would have no seaport and be completely surrounded by neighboring states that might not fully support it.

The economic expert of Iraq, Kazem Habib, said that the economy of the region was and continues to suffer like the Iraqi economy in general, where it suffers from the nature of oil rent and the absence of manufacturing industry and the decline of agricultural activity and the failure of artisanal production and high unemployment exposed and especially disguised, as well as the depletion of a high proportion of the region's annual income to pay salaries

The Kurdish economy is also exposed to financial and administrative corruption, which is evident in employment away from competence and quality, on the one hand, and the absence of economic savings in projects, poor supervision of disbursement and implementation, and the level of quality and feasibility.

Economic economist, on the other hand, highlights another problem for the region that is seeking to become a state soon. "It is regrettable to say that the Gulf model controls the minds and minds of those responsible for the economic activity of the region," said Riyad al-Zubaidi, an economist. The water that surrounds it distinguishes it from the status of the region.

It is surrounded by enemies such as Turkey, Iran and even Syria who fear that the separatism of the region will become a model for the rest of the Kurds in the region.

And how the parties will share wealth. He adds that despite all the shortcomings in the economy of the region, it is still much better than the rest of Iraq. The visitor to the region is aware of the large urban boom and the infrastructure it lacks Baghdad.

Tourism in Kurdistan

A tourist kiss with distinction, the provinces of the Kurdistan region is an important tourist kiss in Iraq, where the regions of the region enjoy the tourist areas are fascinating, ranging between historic sites and waterfalls, mountains and caves and tourist resorts and attract these tens of thousands of tourists from the inside of Iraq. Tourism Authority Territory was announced in 2013 On the increase in the proportion of tourists visiting Kurdistan region by 33%, said the spokesman of the body «Nader Rustai» The Kurdistan region received in 2013 two million and 950 thousand tourists, adding that the proportion of tourists visiting the Kurdistan region of the provinces of central and southern Iraq amounted to 66% Foreign tourists recorded 18% of tourists.

In this regard, says economic analyst Riad al-Zubaidi: The separation of the Kurdistan region will be a painful blow to the tourism sector in Kurdistan, internal tourism is the backbone of tourism in the region, and if the independence of the region, the region will suffer losses of tens of millions of dollars, Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan region, won the competition to choose the capital of Arab tourism in 2014, ahead of the cities of Taif, Sharjah and Beirut, and was scheduled to assess the authorities of Erbil in time more than 80 tourist activities, technical and economic, and allocated the authorities at the time 20 million dollars for this occasion, a

The plan was not successful due to the financial crisis between Baghdad and Erbil, as well as the emergence of an organization and its control over large areas of Iraq in June 2014.

Oil file ..

Kirkuk »Al-Qubban Egg»
The relationship between Erbil and the Iraqi central government since 2014 has gone through severe political and economic crises after Baghdad abstained from paying the salaries of the civilian and military employees of the province, as well as refusing to pay the 17% of the oil revenues allocated under the Iraqi constitution to the Kurdistan Region.

Oil pipeline to Turkey in pursuit of the province to achieve economic independence, according to professor of international economy at the University of Mustansiriya in Baghdad, Abdul Rahman Mashhadani, the negative aspects of the separation of the Kurdistan region from Iraq will not be clear for several reasons, He did not provide since 2003 and to date any disclosure of financial accounts of Baghdad, especially with regard to revenues and customs collection.

Mashhadani pointed out that the government of the region was violating the oil agreements signed at the beginning of each new budget approved by the central government, which stipulates that the government of the Territory to export 550 thousand barrels of oil per day, of which 300 thousand barrels of Kirkuk fields, stressing that the region exports oil without diverting oil revenues to the central state treasury.

On the other hand, the spokesman for the Ministry of Oil Assem Jihad, the most important files outstanding between Baghdad and Erbil is the control of the region Some The oil fields in disputed areas such as Kirkuk beside the fields within the Kurdistan region and export them without reference to the central government, which is contrary to the Constitution,

adding that Iraq under its membership in Transparency International is committed to announcing the quantities of oil and companies that contract with it And the nationalities in addition to the declaration of oil revenues, while the government does not know about the quantities of oil sold by the region and not for its prices or for those who buy oil from the region, as well as that the contracts concluded by the Territory with the oil companies were without review Baghdad, Kurdish deputy in the Iraqi parliament «Sarhan angel» that the Kurdistan region did not resort to this step and export only after the decision to cut the budget for the region, adding that this decision was individually and politically issued by the Maliki government has not been reverted to the central legislative authority.

The former Iraqi Issam Chalabi The provinces that follow the region currently has no oil except in limited quantities, as most of the province's production of crude is from the province of Kirkuk and other parts are currently under his military control in the so-called "disputed areas," which is legal and constitutional follow Baghdad Welcome The province of Kirkuk represents approximately 85% of the production capacity of oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, and that the efforts of the province of independence may deprive him of this important source, as Baghdad will probably agree to the annexation of Kirkuk to the region.

He also points out that the size of the region's exports Oil is currently estimated at 550 thousand barrels per day, bringing the volume of revenues to about 11 billion dollars a year, which represents an alternative to the 17% that the Iraqi government committed to pay the region, as is the case between Baghdad and Erbil, where the ratio of 17% this $ 15 billion According to the latest federal budget.

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