Iraq's Shiites test Iran - Magazine




Over the last few months, Iraq’s Shiite political groups have intensified their fight for influence in Baghdad in preparation for the parliamentary elections next year, Foreign Affairs reported on Monday.

Much to the displeasure of Iran, which has supported a number of these groups, some Iraqi Shiites have been publicly distancing themselves from their patron because posturing as independent forces, free from the tutelage of foreign powers, will win them points with Iraqi voters.

The outcome of this intra-Shiite struggle could have an impact on Iranian interests well outside of Iraq’s borders.

Iran’s wariness was apparent when the Iraqi Shiite firebrand cleric Muqtada al-Sadr showed up on July 30 in Jeddah, the Red Sea port city in Saudi Arabia, Iran’s principal rival.

At the minimum, looser sway over Iraq’s Shiites will slow Tehran’s plans to expand its ideological influence in the region.

Tehran’s leverage over Iraqi Shiite political groups is perhaps its biggest foreign policy achievement since the establishment of Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group, in 1982.

That is why there was plenty of surprise in Tehran when Sadr appeared in Saudi Arabia.

To counter Sadr, Iran has issued an official narrative arguing that the armed forces loyal to Sadr have been irrelevant in the fight against ISIS.

Depending on how Sadr chooses to proceed, Iran is likely to continue to look for ways to marginalize the Sadrists in the national dialogue that will follow ISIS’ defeat.

The process of decoupling Tehran from Shiite Iraqi groups will be difficult given the ties between the two, which stretches back decades. Should any unraveling begin, it will take a long time before it produces significant consequences Still, the worry for Tehran remains: if Sadr can make an about-face, so can other Shiite groups in Baghdad.

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