GardaWorld Weekly Security Report




12 August 2017

GardaWorld
, a global leader in comprehensive security and risk management, has made its weekly security report available to Iraq Business News readers.


Prepared by GardaWorld’s Risk Analysis Team in Iraq, this essential report includes short- and medium-term outlooks on the security situation, reports and commentary on recent significant events, and a detailed overview of developments across the country.


OUTLOOK

Short Term Outlook

Following the clearance of Mosul, there is an elevated likelihood of coordinated reprisal attacks into population

centres across the north, west and centre of Iraq, though these will likely be constrained by resources and the

security footprint, particularly in Baghdad. IS may also attempt to increase their attack tempo in eastern Anbar,

with the cities of Ramadi and Fallujah likely to be key targets for high-profile attacks. Operations to retake Tal

Afar are imminent, with military units now prepositioned and shaping operations continuing in the area.



Two SVBIED attacks in Basra province on May 19, and SVIED attacks in Karbala and Babel on June 9 exhibit IS retains intent and capability for attacks in the southern provinces. Additionally an SVBIED attack occurred in

northern Babel on July 26 targeting a PMU checkpoint. The region remains assessed as non-permissive for IS to significantly escalate operations due to demographics, with the few Sunni militant sympathisers in the region remaining isolated.

The security footprint and other local factors in the central and southern regions, particularly in Baghdad, will

severely constrain IS ability to mount sustained complex attacks of the type reported in the north and the west

of the country. The threat from low-level IED and SAF attacks remains. There may be an increased level of ISF deliberate actions to disrupt and deter insurgent and criminal activity during the Mosul operation, especially in the northern areas of Baghdad province.



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