Prospects for energy and the difficulty of foreseeing them

Views on the future of energy vary over the medium and long term. The views are varied according to the sources that are discussing this vital subject. The OPEC secretariat publishes an annual report on the future of fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal), sustainable energy alternatives (sun and wind) and atomic energy for the next two decades. This annual report took its place among the most important sources of energy. The book in question is "Looking ahead to the future of world oil, 2016", which addresses the development of the energy sector until 2040.

The energy future can not be addressed without first addressing ambiguous or ambiguous matters. These include, for example, the strong viability of the Chinese economy, leading to consecutive record annual increases in energy demand. There is also the impact of Britain's withdrawal from the European Union (BRICZET) and the rapid commercial production of electric batteries for cars. Some major automakers have been able to produce new types of electric cars, such as the Hyundai Ayunik, General Motors Pwit A, and Tesla Model 3, and there are huge investments by other car companies in this area. According to the report «there remains a great degree of uncertainty about the electric car and its capabilities and limits, especially in terms of price, and the extent of the possibility of driving without stopping to charge the battery, in the presence of adequate electric charging stations».

The Paris climate agreement in December 2015 added to the uncertainty in this area. All OPEC countries have agreed to this agreement, especially the second chapter. But there are still many questions without a clear answer on the possible implementation of the Agreement process and the possible implementation by all Signatory States of their commitments, in accordance with the commitments they have undertaken.

There are also the "New World Development Goals 2015" or the so-called global energy poverty fight. This statement by the Secretary-General of the United Nations, at the time, for the first time, launched the essential energy role in the global development process. Of course, here too, the extent to which these objectives are implemented and what policies to adopt and implement in this area must be pursued.

Finally, the report stresses that it is not possible to turn a blind eye to major political developments. The US presidential election added a lot of energy uncertainty, given the important role the United States plays globally. There are, of course, geopolitical developments that add to the hazy oil path.

OPEC's tenth report to explore the future of oil, after studying the above factors and taking them into consideration, concludes the following:

The world population is expected to increase to about 1.772 million people to reach 9.078 billion by 2040. Most of the population growth will be in developing countries, especially in the Middle East, Africa and India.

Population growth rates have been gradually declining since the 1970s. This decline is expected to continue in the future. Globally, the annual population growth rate is expected to drop about 0.7 percent by the next decade and the world population will grow. Currently, over 65 percent of the world's population is over the age of 65. This age group is expected to increase to 14 percent by 2040.

A change in global gross domestic product (GNI) growth is expected to take place from 3.5 percent a year now and rise over the long term between 2015-2040 to 3.7 percent.

India is witnessing a record development in national income output over the next quarter century. Output will then outperform European countries by 2034, and output in India is expected to reach its level in the United States by 2040. The global economy will expand by 234 percent by 2040 compared to 2015. Much of this growth will come from developing countries.

It is clear that OPEC's conclusions are based on the importance of increasing the world's population, as well as improving the standard of living in developing countries. But what is the main energy source by 2040? In particular, what will happen to the role of oil with the potential to decline as fuel for the transport sector. What are the important developments in the petrochemical industry?

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* Iraqi writer specializing in energy

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