Oil prices hit a two-month high



Oil prices rose to a two-month high yesterday, supported by a drop in US stocks and the threat of sanctions against Venezuela, a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).


WTI crude futures jumped more than $ 50 a barrel briefly to 49.97 per barrel, remaining 25 cents higher, or 0.5 percent above last closing. Brent crude futures were $ 52.85 a barrel, up 33 cents, or 0.6 percent. Prices hit $ 52.90 a barrel earlier in the session, their highest level since May 25. With the price increase, the two contracts are on the rise for a sixth straight session.


Analysts in the oil markets cut their crude oil prices for a sixth straight month in July, citing concerns about compliance with the OPEC deal, which could hurt market attempts to restore balance.


"The pressure on OPEC's level of compliance in the coming months is expected to continue as doubts about the pace of market rebalancing persist despite measures adopted by the organization and a number of independent producers," said Energy Analyst Analyst Global in London, Abhishek Kumar. . Compliance with the agreement reached high levels in the first half of the year, but the latest report by the International Energy Agency showed that compliance fell to 78 percent in June from 95 percent in May, with more oil pumping than agreed .


"The longer the price remains, the greater the risk that some Opec members will not comply with production cuts by the same force they have so far," said Karsten Fritsch, an analyst at Commerzbank. The survey, which included 33 analysts and economists, showed that the average price of Brent crude is expected to reach $ 52.45 a barrel this year, less than $ 53.96 a barrel in June. He predicted that the average price of US crude will reach $ 50.08 a barrel this year, down from $ 51.92 in the June forecast. Analysts also cut their price forecasts for 2018.


Brent crude is expected to reach $ 54.51 per barrel on average, down from $ 57.37 a barrel in the June poll, and the US Intermediate WTI at $ 51.88 per barrel, down from $ 55.20 a barrel in June. While demand is expected to grow in the second half of this year thanks to strong global economic growth, the picture remains unclear for supplies despite recent US inventory drawdown.


Analysts stressed that the geopolitical risks in the Middle East, instability in Libya and the intensification of the crisis in Venezuela, among the factors affecting the market this year. A few analysts expected the market to see a slight drop by the end of the year if OPEC sticks to a supply cut agreement and US rock producers work to calm the pace of drilling, while others believe the return of balance may be delayed until next year.


In a related context, the S & P Global Plats is proposing to change the timing of price increases during its process of evaluating the price of the Middle East's high sulfur ore market, showing price changes immediately.


The agency said in a note to the participants that it proposes to "change the maximum allowable price increase in raw materials in the Middle East and the price differences between raw materials to five cents per barrel every five seconds from 10 cents per barrel every 15 seconds." The growth of market activity requires an approach Faster in the process of evaluating the price of crude »noting that« the change will take effect from the second of October (October).


Saudi Aramco raised the price of its Arab light crude in September to its Asian customers by $ 0.20 a barrel from August, a source said yesterday. The selling price is at a discount of $ 0.25 a barrel from the average price of Oman and Dubai, slightly higher than expected.


On the other hand, the imports of major buyers in Asia from Iran's crude oil for the second consecutive month fell in June to the lowest level in 14 months, affected by the slowdown in purchases by China and Japan.


This is the first time that the volume of imports of four major buyers in Asia has shrunk from Iranian crude for two straight months since the lifting of Western sanctions imposed on Tehran. China, India, South Korea and Japan combined 1.46 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, down 15.2 percent year-on-year, the lowest level since April last year. The latest data showed that India's imports of Iranian crude rose more than 30 percent in the first three months of the Indian fiscal year, which starts in April to June.

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