What happens after the elimination of Daesh?

The newspaper "New York Times" published an article security expert and former official for "FBI" on the tinder, begun by saying that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who proclaimed himself caliph of the Islamic State, may be killed again.

According to tinder in his article, "Russia has been careful not to confirm the death of al-Baghdadi, but said that turned out to be killed in the air strike, this would be a good development, Valfrag resulting, and the scramble for filled, will accelerate certainly the disintegration of state regulation, and the fact that it was It is expected before the announcement last week. "

The writer refers to "the organization Daesh since its inception did not derive its strength from religious extremists, such as al-Baghdadi, but from a group in favor of Saddam Hussein, where concerted Saddam loyalists with terrorists, having identified some of them in American prisons in the middle of the first of the atheist and the twentieth century decade , and were these former Baathists creative in violence, and the Iraqi society know very well, and they kept the organization Daesh alive during the lean years before sweeping victories to Icodoh, after the US military to leave Iraq. "

Tinder, and it points out that "left almost now than the previous one Baathist leaders, and the same can be said for their deputies, and this is the fundamental difference between the organization Daesh today and al-Qaeda in 2011, when Osama bin Laden was killed, where many of his deputies are ready to keep the organization alive life. "

The writer goes that "deprived the organization of any force was derived from its depth, with the fall of the near Mosul in the hands of the Iraqis, and with tenderness near the fall in the hands of troops backed by America, it just became a time before the organization ends."

Says tinder: "The real question is what will happen after that? A fact can be considered as a Muslim, and that thousands of fighters will not Atlachoa, but they will do what it did generations of terrorists before them, seek an alternative to their violent means, as al-Qaeda has proved before, the loss of land did not specify his ability to inspire supporters far from the battlefield. "

The writer adds that "the heir apparent organization Daesh may be affiliated organizations network to it, especially those in eastern Libya, which has several thousand fighters, and is said to have trained the suicide bomber who blew Manchester Arena, Salman al-Obeidi, a former and there to become a jihadist group of a local group to an international network, which he did al-Qaeda after the fall of the Taliban in Afghanistan, but al-Qaeda had a survival of leaders from the first grade feature to provide the leadership of central vision, while this feature is not available to the organization Daesh does not appear to be affiliated with the organization of groups You can stay together without a central command In Syria or Iraq. "

The comment Sofan said: "Unfortunately, this is not the end, destruction of the organization of the near Daesh causes the possibility of another serious: reconciliation between the organization and al-Qaeda, was the dispute between the two teams personally and intellectually, it is an intellectual hand organization Daesh claims that it represents a succession that was born again; therefore asks loyalty of Muslims, and this is what al Qaeda refuses to submit, when the succession ends will not become this intellectual dispute the meaning. "

The writer says: "On a personal level, the organization Daesh hates the current leader of al Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri; because he supported the Front victory when he broke away with him, usually claiming the organization Daesh it represents the base of bin Laden, not al-Zawahiri base, but may not wait too long before holds the Emir of al-Qaeda founder's name, in a voice message in 2015, the virtual knew a young man who he described as (lion's den) Al-Qaeda, and the sound then is the voice of Hamza bin Osama bin Laden, now in his late twenties. "

Sofan notes that the voice of Hamza in the voice message was looked like the voice of his father, the quiet itself by force, and using the same expressions, and al-Qaeda began calling it recently Sheikh, an indicator of the growing authority, but more importantly is that al-Zawahiri is always critical of the leadership of the organization Daesh, at a time when Hamza avoids saying anything that might disturb the followers of al-Baghdadi. "

The writer says: "We should not be surprised that the solution Hamza replaced Zawahiri, in his capacity as a prince, and with the end of the organization Daesh and bin Laden, the head of al-Qaeda, it will open the door for the fighters of the former organization Daesh to join the organization, bringing with them for months and years of fighting experience in the fronts."

He concludes tinder article by saying: "The fate of Daesh Balbgdada or without it is doomed to failure, but the ideology of bin Laden is destined to stay in the future."