What after the liberation of Mosul between domestic concerns and foreign intersections

08/01/2017

Charter walks Issawi

Euphrates Center for Development and Strategic Studies

With the start of the Iraq military operations and victories of the Iraqi army and security forces in the restoration of the city of Mosul from the grip of the "Daesh", some of the parties state, regional and local began to show political concerns in the post-editing, regardless of the nature of these concerns and political goals, but they indicate the problems It may face a real Iraqi state after the expulsion of the organization "Daesh" terrorist from Iraqi territory.

In conjunction with these fears there were deliberations in Washington-according to some leaks Alaalamah- focused on the period that will follow the expulsion of the organization "Daesh" care. He confirmed -almassadr- that US officials from the central and external intelligence and security committee in Congress met with Iraqi politicians of various shades in the times and places several of them (London Erbil, Baghdad and Amman) was informed that the US conviction and the capitals of influential settled that there is a deficit of N treatment in the continuation of judged in accordance with the current situation, and perhaps put the three provinces, "the option of federal option," one of the main options for the shape of the Iraqi political system after the expulsion of the terrorist organization; and to address some of the internal challenges, particularly in relation to the Shiite factions armed and Iran's role in Iraq.

Despite the difficulty of the battle against al-seasoned on the streets of war in the city of extending his influence them for a period of not a few, but the former director of the agency US intelligence (CIA) and the US commander in Iraq, General "David Petraeus," warned against falling into the trap accounts and excessive focus on the battle anticipated in themselves, and ignore the focus on the difficulties that will follow the same process of liberalization and plans to confront these difficulties, and emphasized that the biggest challenge lies in the extent of making the Iraqi partners collaborate on governance in the city of nearly two million people, especially in light of the multiplicity of ethnic groups and religious communities the tribes and others in Nineveh province, of Arabs, Kurds and Yezidis and Turkmen and others, as well as the challenges of ensuring security in post-conflict and reconstruction, and in the establishment of the rule represents everyone and responds to their demands and deliver their acceptance, especially with the internal intersections between Arabs and Kurds, as well as the interests of the Shiites there , Turkmen and Yazidis, Christians, and many of the tribes.

This intersection of interests may be supported by regional and international stances different with this or that party, as well as Kurdish ambitions (the Iraqi Kurds and the PKK), both with regard to the disputed or the future establishment of a Kurdish state areas, and therefore these challenges will certainly be a catalyst for the event lack of political and security stability there, and in turn will increase the state of political fragmentation and the lack of security and stability in Baghdad.

The end of the "Daesh" crisis in Iraq does not mean the end of the internal crises, especially with the continuation of the internal popular fears of political instability and the lack of national vision and the absence of political reform project, as well as partisan and sectarian intersections experienced by the current political process. This is why the elimination of al "Daesh" does not mean the elimination of the Iraqi crises successive; because the major political problems quickly rise to the surface again, especially those related to power and wealth and the problems between the region and the center, and that the Iraqi political mentality has not changed yet, as well as political faces caused a political and financial collapse remain strong has not been accounted for, as well as the continuation of political and financial corruption, and the weakness of the Iraqi judiciary in corrupt accounting revealed embezzled funds and the continuation of the internal and regional intersections that led to the weakness of the Iraqi political process as a whole, and made it a yard a regional conflict - international.

Therefore, between what the United States traditionally by Iraq behind the scenes, according to their interests, and what aspire to the Gulf States and Turkey, and want Iran and its allies in the continuing stranglehold on power in Iraq, there is a real inner fears, and those fears are increasing day after day as a result of repeated political failure in the process of building the state, has been the domestic concerns of the state of international and regional intersections enhanced by the Iraqi arena, which may ultimately contribute to the failure of another Iraqi politician for the post-liberation of Mosul, and failure this time, it may lead to a scenario amerism.

That may be the scenario with the three regions the federal government or multiple regions in light of the status of Kirkuk province and the current demands of the province of Basra province to establish a fait accompli and the option basis in addressing the problems of the political process since 2003, and the natural result of political failure repeated.

Thus, the Iraqi decision makers in various political levels (government, parliament and leaders of blocs and parties who are the location of responsibility) in front of a serious and a big challenge, especially in light of the economic situation worsening of the current financial crisis and the great collapse in infrastructure not only in the liberated areas of the organization "Daesh" but in the all of Iraq's provinces.

This is certainly in need of concerted internal efforts and move away from the behavior of the current political process that has brought the country to this stage. As well as highlighting the urgent need to develop and improve on Foreign Relations (regional and international) on the basis of the principle of good neighborliness and in accordance with the principles of international relations, and the abolition of internal laws which were issued on a political basis, and the granting of regions or provinces and councils the powers of the age-compliant laws with the needs of local communities; because the push things to the patching and partial reform compatible with the sizes of the political blocs and parties have become unacceptable, especially with the escalating financial and political crisis and the scale of the destruction and devastation caused to the governorates liberated from the grip of the "Daesh."

Will we see political cohesion between the political forces for a national political project clearly features to refute concerns beyond "Daesh" or the situation will get ill as many expect?

Source: Center Euphrates Development and Strategic Studies

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