Fouad Qassem Prince *
The following are related to oil exports, which are the basis of these revenue Almoisntin. For the purpose of facilitating the reading Almoisntin, it adopted the US dollar instead of the dinar, and adopted the official price Almoisntin, is that the US dollar equivalent of (1180) dinars, in order to facilitate follow-up, in addition to that oil imports are already in the currency of the dollar.
We note that the Ministry of Finance adopted the price of the dollar equivalent of (1180) Iraqi dinars, which is true, as is the actual number that you receive it from the central bank to meet the recent sale of the dollar in «auctions». But the variable market price, and a regular -and Thbath- price between 1222-1240 between the buying and selling will change. Any The actual value of the Iraqi dinar markets less than the limits (3.3 to 5%) compared to the official rate of the dinar against the dollar, and that in normal circumstances, it may exceed much as it did a few months ago.
It also notes that the amount of expected exports for the year 2016, from Ceyhan line, is as it was in the budget of 2015, and reach 550 thousand barrels per day. Any application of the agreement in late 2014 between the federal government and the government of the region, about the export volumes of up to 250 thousand barrels per day from the fields in the region (the region's oil), and (300) thousand barrels per day from the Kirkuk oilfields, which are mainly the Kirkuk field (Qpti door and Ivana), and field Bai Hassan, and field Jamboree, which was originally administered by the federal government, but now within the zones established by the Peshmerga forces under its protection, following the invasion of Daash to the provinces of Nineveh, Salahuddin and Anbar. This brings the total oil exported from the export line to Ceyhan, up 550 thousand barrels per day, without taking into consideration the large increases for export in this line, which is under the control of the Government of the Territory.
With regard to what will be exported by the federal government, from the south and center of oil, it has increased the amount of up to (0.3) million barrels per day compared to 2015.
And the price of oil as the source b (45) dollars per barrel in the budget of 2016, compared to the price of 56 dollars per barrel in the 2015 budget year is very high as evidenced by the facts. This and as we have seen in the context of the statement in this study, the oil price estimate of $ 45 dollars per barrel is too high price, and will not be the price of Iraqi oil source in 2016, more than rates in the last months of 2015, and should put the price of oil to balance in 2016 the equivalent of 40 dollars per barrel, and we'll discuss this later.
And now look at the budget in 2016, because even if it was to retain the formula in 2015 itself, (ie 300 of the Federal fields and 250 thousand barrels per day from fields in the region), something we reject outright, the region will not be able to abide hold such an agreement with the federal government, as You will not be able to pay its debts to finance oil trading companies. And can the region of production much more than belonging to his fields, but producers in low price conditions halted new investments in Kurdistan, or reduced them too. As though the region owes to companies producing about 3 billion dollars from the previous production by production sharing contracts, in return for «profit oil». Including the billion dollars to the Norwegian company DNO, which operates Tawke field, and (400) million to a Turkish company Genel Energy, which runs the British-Taq Taq field.
I carried from Ceyhan (22) oil tanker belonging to the Government of the Territory, (specific names and the date of loading and the name of the port, which unloaded its cargo in it), and that between 10.01.2015 and 10.30.2015, and the amount of total oil up to 20.06 million barrels, according to information obtained by the «Iraq Oil Report» in cooperation with the follow-up carriers move devices (55), an average load per tanker is equivalent to (910) thousand barrels, and the rate of export equivalent (667 527) barrels per day, compared to download tankers in Basra for the same month ( any October), and adult (2,708) million barrels a day, or (83.948) million barrels for the entire month of October. As well as the transport of the Kurdistan region, Kirkuk province through the «Kurdish» pipeline to Ceyhan, and in the same month, the equivalent of (595) thousand barrels per day (from a month earlier in September--oa amount equivalent to 635 thousand barrels per day).
Within the amount of (595) thousand barrels transported per day in October, it was the transfer of 220 thousand barrels per day from the fields of Bai Hassan, and the Dome of Ivana (Kirkuk field) who are captured by the territory government after the occupation of Daash connector and Salah al-Din, and counted as part of the fields in the region! !. In this region completed the acquisition of domes from the Kirkuk field, the first «Khurmala Dome», which seized the territory in 2005, and the second dome Ivana seized by the region also considered it part of his fields this year. In addition, the other part of the source of oil to calculate the region there was a quantity of up to 157 thousand barrels per day of «Dome Pope» in Kirkuk oilfields, which is still the region considered by the federal government fields as well as from Jambour field, and may be part of this amount also about 4,000 barrels per day from Ain Zala field in Nineveh. Thus we see that the federal government oil (up to the pre-occupation Daash), which is of Qpti Ivana and Pope from the Kirkuk field, and the field of Jamboree and Bai Hassan, and of quantity (220 +157 = 373) thousand barrels, representing 63.3% of the exported oil, Government of the Territory received in full without exaggeration that the Federal Government recognizes dinars and one of him.
In addition, the export (20.026) million barrels in September represents (19%) of the total export of Iraq. And because the price of oil exported from Ceyhan increases at the present time for the Basra oil b (5) dollars per barrel, at least, would be the highest percentage financially, and as follows:
- (3,320) billion dollars Basra oil value for the month of October, which was the price (39.55) dollars per barrel in the month of October.
- (901.16) million dollars oil «Kurdistan» valuable source in October is supposed to price 45 dollars per barrel, at least.
For this to be the region's share of Finance for the month of October (21.3%) of the total financial revenues of Iraq, compared to a share (17%) and specific budget, and minus (expenses sovereign and governing, and including the salaries and allowances of Representatives and Minister of Kurds in the government and parliament of federal and assigned to their offices and their guards and their staff!), and though the region late employee for two or three months' salaries. I wonder where to go the region's exports amounts?!.
In addition, and as the numbers above, the Government of the Territory has adopted in its exports to the Federal Oil and »looted from the Iraqi people» (63.3%) of its exports for the month of October 2015. The reliance on exports to the Federal Oil, thus leading to abundance the oil companies operating in the region, and this is certainly led to an increase «internal sales» by working with companies, which sells its oil at a price of content to pay half of the Government of the region. Do not be surprised if internal sales have reached 80 thousand barrels per day or more !!.
What is surprising in the Iraq oil report, the views of the follow-up of oil tankers, it included a name (22) and the date of tanker loaded and unloaded destination. Only one were not part of these carriers unloaded their cargo at the Israeli port of Ashkelon, and the rest in the ports of Cyprus and Greek and Italian names. Which means a public sale of the oil region -dmenh oil Alathada- without any legal follow-up from the center !!.
The oil policy in Kurdistan failure lies in the lack of understanding with the federal government, and lack of confidence in them originally. Pkalbrait region and oil companies and the Government of Turkey has documented and goes and pay them in the interpretation of the Constitution from one point of view with continuous and deliberate collision with partners in the homeland, not in the interests of the Kurdish people -as the result was exposed Majara- but other interests.
It was Mr. Rebaz lambs, Minister of Finance and Economy in the government of the region, the key role in exposing the most important reasons for failure, a lack of transparency and in absolute terms in the corridors of the Ministry of Natural resources and the oil generally file. The logical question that subsidiaries professionalism is «Where oil money ?!», but this was deported.
If the Government of the region want to «sow confidence» in the coming negotiations with the federal government, and pass the 2016 budget, the other hand should the government and the federal House of Representatives that «Iseraa» confidence in the Iraqi masses fully preserve the interests and Hmyatem of «corruption», since what was done by the Government of the Territory, with respect to the oil issue, it is the ultimate corruption and looting of the rights and money of Iraqi citizens, Arabs and Kurds.
For this is the duty of the Iraqi government and the federal House of Representatives that does not Ankhaddaa second, third and fourth, whether knowingly or not aware of the intentions of the same group that manages the oil's Kurdish since the beginning of the American occupation of Iraq until now. The waiver from what we have mentioned on the pages of this study, and Snodzh in the next chapter, is something that can not be accepted by the Iraqi masses of poor and fighting on the fronts, and that fight against corruption, especially the corruption that fighting against in their strength and their livelihood and looting of the summit families.
1 - the federal budget in 2016
In light of the continuing decline in the level of world oil prices, especially in the last three months, with the sale of Iraqi oil from the ports of Basra at about (41.12) dollars per barrel in August 2015, and (40.68) dollars per barrel in September, and ( 39.55) dollars per barrel in October 2015, and the lack of any reference better prices, but no adverse signs, we see that the proposed oil price in the budget for the year 2016 amounting to 45 dollars per barrel is a high price, and should be reduced to 40 dollars a barrel at its best 'on the assumption that there is an intention to do the exporting countries to take firm action to cut production.
In fact, that the available information on Iraqi oil prices for the month of November 2015, show us more about the deterioration of October prices, expected to continue to deteriorate with this. He picked up the global news about a significant increase in Iraqi oil sales in America and Europe in November. And the news that brought the attention of those concerned is published by the Reuters news agency on 11.19.2015. Agency has reported that Basrah Light sold to European markets at a price of 30 dollars a barrel, a competitor of Saudi oil, which is considered one of the most important suppliers of oil-Europe (69). In addition -ouhsp Olokulh- report, OPEC announced that there are no plans to reduce production. Which means the continuation of the collapse of oil prices.
The Basra oil, was issued as a combination between heavy and light oil, which negatively affects the price of oil. And a few months ago it was isolated and independent types for each type of export, which is in the interest of Iraq and the amount of calories. The heavy oil is heavily 21-22API.
After that Tharina on the subject, it appears that there is an error in the Reuters report as the Basra heavy oil price is 30 dollars per barrel, and has a good market in the United States and Europe. The Basrah Light is priced close to 40 dollars per barrel at best, and sold certain of it deals priced (37-38) dollars per barrel and this arrived in the price of oil in November (36.4) dollars per barrel on average for each of oil exported from Basra, compared to October at a price of $ (39.55) dollars per barrel, as compared to the price specified in the 2016 budget of 45 dollars per barrel, which we have proposed reducing it to 40 dollars a barrel at best.
Projections show that the price of 40 dollars per barrel for the year 2016, the price is optimistic, what OPEC did not take decisions to reduce production at its next meeting in Vienna, in the first week of December 2015.
With regard to the amount of oil exported from Kurdistan through the Turkish port of Ceyhan, it has returned the 2016 budget 2015 budget numbers themselves' and the terms of paragraphs itself.
The 2016 budget should include 300 thousand barrels per day from the federal government in the fields of Kirkuk, any of Qpti Pope and Ivana in Kirkuk field, and the fields of Jamboree and Bai Hassan, and any other small fields were run by the Federal Ministry of Oil. And (450) thousand barrels per day from fields in the region, for a total of total (750) thousand barrels per day. With emphasis paragraphs in the budget itself, and clearly not to allow the province to export any amount out of these quantities for his own account, and all that will be issued through the Federal marketing company SOMO. In addition, it is to be installed to prevent the internal sale of the oil, it is not a commodity sold internally. And that was done for the purposes of official and registered refineries and burning in cement kilns or power plants, the revenues of the federal government be unchanged if what is in the rest of Iraq.
In the case of the province refused to approve such a budget, or violating the independent export for the benefit of the region, it is the duty of the federal government's prosecution in all parts of the world as oil «smuggler stolen» of the Iraqi state, whether this oil from production fields in the region or from the government fields Federal in the provinces of Kirkuk and Nineveh, and especially what steals from the federal fields.
In any case, I do not know how it will be to reach a new agreement with the Government of the Territory of the budget in 2016, and most of its oil in 2016, had been sold in advance and received exaggerated the region in 2014 and 2015, and disbursement !!.
We deem it necessary to stress once again, that the indifference of the House of Representatives and the government federal independent export to the region, in whole or in part, and his account private without entering amounts of this export in the general budget, and the approval of the independent export implicitly upon approval of the budget in 2016, and as presented itself for the year 2015 , will lead to serious consequences for the unity of Iraq and the authority of the federal government, and to the oil-producing provinces independent export the same as that carried out by the Kurdistan region, but are lighter, because the producing provinces from outside the region keen on Iraq's unity and prestige of the state of the region, but they feel right -It oppressed - compared to the region and earns from oil revenues.
The Constitution does not differentiate at all, in the oil and gas issues, between the region and the province producing oil or gas. The independent export is contrary to the Constitution categorically, in addition to that it is unfair in the distribution of wealth among Iraqis. But because of the looting of the region the right to export Almstvl from the federal government, what is to prevent the province of Basra -mthela- doing similar work?!, And will actually do so, if they continued to export the independent region.
There is a serious move to the provincial council in Basra export part of the oil for the benefit of Basra only and away from Baghdad, if Baghdad did not respond to the demands of Basra to raise the «injustice» them, and will maintain -as Oalent- exploiting the fields not covered by cycles of licenses, and is contracted with foreign companies, and the use of resources to serve the province, as does the Kurdistan region -aly the words of the majority in the House of Mahafezh-. And »injustice» is, in their view their share in petro-dollars, and regardless of the health of the petro-dollar to give or not his health, but it is part of the general budget and delivers them fully in the present, while the region receives what he wants !! (66).
The fields that talking about the Basra Governorate Council, are small fields managed by directly SoC, such as fields (tuba and Ben Omar), who currently produce about 20 thousand barrels per day, and the field (for Has), which currently produces about (60) thousand barrels per day, and the field of (semi) production, which is expected than in 2016 (67).
The Oil Ministry is negotiating at the moment with my company Aksen Mobil Petrojayna American and Chinese, for the implementation of water injection project, allocating Ratawi and Bin Umar fields, or any other small field to finance the implementation of the project (68). Which will cause problems and contradictions between the oil ministry and the province of Basra, if the latter carried out its threat to independent export !!.
In addition, the province of Kirkuk, also waving to sell oil directly if they have not acted dues from the petro-dollar (64). Where the provincial council slab so, if the central government did not pay dues of Kirkuk petrodollars. Says Deputy Governor for Technical Affairs: «The Kirkuk bear a great burden as a result of a major conflict between the province and the federal government, and the different views on the region's share and about the issued and who receive financial returns, and this situation is unacceptable».
The position of the provincial council in Kirkuk, which is in the predominantly Kurdish blocs, as though the Governor of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), had not previously objected to the seizure of Dome Khormalp from the Kirkuk field, did not object to the official seizure of Dome Ivana from the Kirkuk field and field Bai Hassan, after invasion Daash neighboring Kirkuk areas in June 2015, did not object to the region to export oil these fields, as well as other fields (the Pope Dome of the Kirkuk field and field Jamboree), and those who still regard them as belonging to the territory of the Federal Government !!. But all of these crudes issue of Kirkuk fields, and receives the full amounts for his own account. The Kirkuk Provincial Council knows this and also knows that Akiemha found at the Government of the Territory, but it is still demanding the central government its share !. I think that claim is correct, since it is the duty of the Federal Government and the Federal House of Representatives protection of his interests. But both sides are not doing such things !!, but also facilitate the work of the Government of the Territory to seize these amounts, and as a result of the provincial council will agree with the Government of the Territory at the expense of central authority.
2 - shale oil
I've had predicted in my book: «Energy: The biggest challenge for this century», issued in September 2005 (3), that the role of oil will end at the end of this century for two reasons, first relates Bndobath and runs out, and the second is important is the role of the bad global warming and agreements International, (such as the Kyoto Protocol, which works to replace the soon-to-expire), imposes reduce carbon dioxide emissions resulting from the burning of fossil carbon materials, namely coal, oil and natural gas. But all modern indications are that oil will continue to the first two or three decades of the next century, as has new discoveries of oil, including oil shale. In all cases, the traditional oils in the Middle East represent the least expensive oils.
The sale of oil prices unrelated to the cost of production, and the oil must be sold at a price alternative. Oil impoverished valuable item, for this is to sell in large quantities and at low prices is a crime against future generations, and the current generations as well. You should be selling oil policy is the withdrawal of the surplus from the market, bringing the price, since there is no cheaper alternative of it.
The shale oil is not a cheap alternative to conventional oil, but it is supported by a price. The shale oil production possibilities do not represent more than 6% of the world's oil requirements at the present time, and up to 10% in the future, but the production of high Bklv helping to keep the oil price high.
A policy that says to get more yield by increasing the amount of oil sold and the spread of markets regardless of the sale price, is wrong and dangerous policy, and lead to competition between producers themselves, which leads to more cut in prices.
As though those who believe that he can eliminate the phenomenon of shale oil, which is a private in the United States for reasons that have already been talked about the case, and is the most important. Production continued after the flood the market by Saudi Arabia in the second half of 2014 and led it to lower prices. And increased «satiety» in the oil markets, because every producer Qatar began pumping more oil quantity, to get more financial returns. The more pumped more «to get more financial returns» increased surplus / glut and prices fall more.
The oil shale in the United States has not only continued, but increased production in 2014 and 2015, with the possibility of the existence of a further increase in 2016, increases have stopped production in 2017 is constantly falling prices steep. But as soon as there is an increase in oil prices to 70 dollars and above, shale oil will return to the market and strongly within weeks not exceeding three months of rising prices. This can not be eliminated -as believed pesos into, unless producing countries decided to crash itself by continuing to flood the market and reduce prices for a long time until «balance happens after long years» ... after that demolished the economic and social structure !!, which