The Dinar Daily, Tuesday December 2, 2014
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    The Dinar Daily, Tuesday December 2, 2014





    The Exchange Rate of Foreign Currency in Economic Feasibility Studies

    Below are the central controls related to the exchange rate of the foreign currency to convert the project inputs and outputs from foreign currency to its equivalent in the local currency, and that is by calculating the net discounted present value standard and the internal return on investments in economic analysis that governs investment projects that costs excess one million dinars.

    Estimate the shadow price of foreign currency:

    1. It is necessary to put central controls to amend the official exchange rate * to reflect the shadow price of the foreign currency, and that is considered one of the necessary requirements to implement the net discounted present value standard and the internal return rate on investment in the economic calculation stated in the instructions, paragraph nine.

    The central controls for adjusting market prices distinguished a group of outputs and inputs traded internationally, where the projects production or usage of them is reflected on the abundance of foreign currency in the economy and thus project outputs or inputs used of such are considered purely foreign currency outputs or inputs.

    * What is meant by exchange rate: the number of units of foreign currency, expressed in dollar per one dinar.In particular the following outputs and inputs of foreign currency were distinguished:


    • Export-outputs.
    • Outputs marketed locally that substitute imports.
    • Imported inputs.
    • Inputs produced locally that usually go to exports.
    • Foreign labor.


    According to the pricing rules the value of the output and input (traded) is calculated using export prices (FOB) and import prices (CIF), according to what is listed in the pricing rules.

    In other words the pricing rules calculate what the project produces from foreign currency (quantity of exports multiplied by the export price (FOB) in foreign currency or the quantity of substitute imports multiplied by the import price (CIF) in foreign currency, as well as what the project uses from foreign currency and imported inputs multiplied by the import price (CIF) in foreign currency …. etc.).

    In a later step, project outputs and inputs must be converted from the foreign currency to its equivalent in local currency (dinars) by using a specific exchange rate for the foreign currency.

    2. Justifications for exchange-rate adjustment: there are a number of important and powerful arguments which support the view that the official exchange rate reduces the real value of foreign currency for purposes of calculating the economic national profitability for investment projects and hence for the purposes of investment planning. It is demonstrated in this context to call for assessing the dinar for less than (3.208) dollar (official exchange rate) when assessing project outputs and inputs of traded goods of exports, substitute imports and imports… etc.

    The justifications to call for the use of an exchange rate that is lower than the official exchange rate are:


    • The use of an exchange rate that is lower than the official rate is the appropriate action at the investment planning level to translate the country’s economic strategy aiming at stimulating central investments in the sectors that encourage the development of non-oil exports, as well as sectors that encourage the expansion of domestic production base in order to reduce imports and compensate it with local commodities. This helps to reduce reliance on foreign exchange earnings from crude oil exports and increases the share of non-oil sectors in the local production.
    • The application of the amended exchange rate on project imported inputs will assist in directing investments away from aggregated sectors dependent on imported inputs and the preference of those sectors that rely on locally produced inputs.
    • The use of the amended exchange rate helps to correct the balance in favor of the traded goods sectors compared to non-traded goods.
    • The real exchange rate has declined rapidly since the early seventies, through rapid rise of the level of prices and local costs which led by the steadiness of the official exchange rate to change in prices and actual local rate costs that gave an advantage for imported goods at the expense of locally produced goods, meaning that it led to deterioration of the competitiveness of alternative replacement goods and export commodities.
    • This action shows that the official exchange rate overestimates the value of the dinar, compared to the foreign currency and from the promoting goods substituting imports and export commodities point of view of.


    And in support to this view is the state’s utilization and in a broad approach to the customs and quantitative protection policies especially for consumer goods, as well as export subsidies that exports have through an amended export exchange rate.

    3. Estimate the amended exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar to be used in technical and economical feasibility studies and for (1.134) dollar per dinar. This price should be approved for 3 years until re-appreciation by the competent authorities.



    The Republic of Iraq – Ministry of Planning

    and

    A "flashback recap" of a Live Q and A Call from about a year ago - on THE DAILY DINAR NEWS BLOG...

    In general terms – there were three main focal points of interest I wanted to cover and then allow listeners to ask whatever questions they liked.

    1) the SIGR report…


    2) the Gold Article…


    3) the IIER report…


    I started the conversation out last night by highlighting how crazy this campaign being fielded to contact our lawmakers and bank CEO’s and tell them how unfair it is they are getting to exchange (exchange is the right terminology BTW – NOT “CASH-IN”) at 32.00 per Dinar and we are not – is. It is nuts.


    Firstly, “they” are NOT being allowed to exchange “early” – or at 32.00 per Dinar. It makes you sound “stark raving MAD” to be caught saying such things. You would be better off barking at the moon. It is demeaning to the validity of a true currency play.


    Secondly, this is entirely the wrong way to approach them. I pointed out on the call that Poppy and I fielded a very successful such campaign a couple of years ago. However, we sat down and came up with a much different approach. It was designed to get answers and to approach our lawmakers with respect and as their constituents. Not like a bunch of lunatics. We had extraordinary participation (because it made sense) and we received a good response from lawmakers. It started the conversation in a reasonable manner.


    I asked one caller – “when was the last time you asked a banker for money and told him how unfair it was if he didn’t give it to you”??? Obviously – we chuckled…


    Another caller asked me if (as DC had relayed) – the “zero’s were raised” and the lower denominations were in circulation??


    I said plainly “no”…lower denominations being in circulation would (at the very least) imply there had been a value change. If there were no value change the lower denoms would not only be of little value, they would be such a hinderance – people might even throw them away just to get rid of them. So no – no lower denoms. I told the caller to check the
    CBI.iq website for “real” info on rate change.

    The “zero’s being raised” or “deleted” – as explained by any reasonable researcher, economist or authority – is simply the process removing the large (3 zero notes) from circulation.


    Referring to an Enorrste post from today on
    THE DINAR OBSERVER DAILY(you may want to put this on your favorites and check in several times a day – we to it often )

    “…I have never found a single article from the CBI or the IMF that equates “delete the zeros” to the idea of “move the decimal point.” Instead, the statements overwhelmingly come out to mean “remove the large notes from circulation.”


    Also – this recent internal memo put out by Wells Fargo is likely “push back” from this recent campaign. I pointed out that Pinnacle Bank published an article by an “affiliate” in their internal publication and then “highlighted it” in a similar internal memo a couple of years ago. It is just a defense mechanism. I’m sure Wells is tired of having their name dragged through the “internet rumor mill”. This is highly likely the reason for their vigorous denials about handling it in the future. They get so many useless calls – it isn’t worth the headache. Can you blame them??


    Further, for any bank, lawmaker, adviser or official to state the “Dinar is a scam” is nearly as foolish as some of the internet “Gurus”. It is the official currency of a COUNTRY. I pointed out (below) the post from yesterday’s
    DINAR OBSERVER DAILY
    – highlights page 94 of the quarterly SIGR report to THE US CONGRESS in April of 2012…
    __________________________________________________ _____________

    THIS REPORT WAS SENT TO CONGRESS LAST MAY. IT PLAINLY SHOWS IN THIS REPORT THEY EXPECTED THE DINAR TO REVALUE AT AROUND A DOLLAR IN 2013.

    We are seeing and hearing that the inflation rate is still climbing and they are pushing to get us our money?? This report is from page 94 of the massive SIGR report.





    BGG ~
    This is a screen shot from the “Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction” – Apr 2012, quarterly report to Congress. For members of our Government to say they have no idea what is going on here – means they haven’t read some very basic documents presented them.
    __________________________________________________ ______________

    I pointed out (last night) this is a highly speculative investment. We are, in no way, guaranteed anything. However, this SIGR report gives us some valuable insights…

    1) This is information given to the US CONGRESS on a quarterly basis… I find it hard to believe such an information source would intentionally mislead Congress. They tend to frown on such behavior. Which goes directly to the validity of this adventure – against all advice from Wells Fargo or other such naysayers.

    2) It points out there having been a legitimate “plan” – or time frame in motion…having been projected to be done in 2013. We are obviously in “over time” now.

    3) It gives us an idea as to who is in charge…the CoM – or Council of Ministers. Who do they answer to?? Maliki. Period. When is he likely to push this forward?? Historically – he has been a “weak Dinar” policy advocate. However, rumor from his own inner circle admits he can’t win a third term in office without some currency reform.

    I fully expect him to use every tool in his “wheel house” to win – his recent moves in Anbar and the disputed territories prove as much. Currency reform has to be a “biggie”. Though this WAS their thinking a couple of months ago – there is no promise it is still part of their political calculus. We shall see.

    4) Though no guarantee of the actual future plan they wind up engaging – this report points out an increase in value that would have taken the Dinar from “one-tenth of a cent” to a value “of slightly less than $1″..

    __________________________________________________ ______________

    AND

    Coins put on the market !!



    Nora Albjara member of the committee of economy and investment in the House of Representatives revealed that the central bank completed its preparations for the issuance of metal coins of seven small groups, in conjunction with the implementation of the project to delete the three zeroes from the paper currency is currently in circulation.

    She said in her statement Albjara "The project will take between four and five years, and which will be the launch of the categories of small coins gradually."

    He predicted the financial expert Hilal Taan inflation rate declines, with the issuance of metal coins of small denominations in the daily financial transactions, remarkable that 3% of the value of inflation in Iraq due to the presence of large cash block.

    The economic expert on behalf of Jamil Anton, noted that he may not find metal coins accepted by a lot of Iraqis, especially young people, due to the existence of an entire generation of Iraqis had not trading coins due to stop use since the early nineties of the twentieth century

    waradana.com

    And

    CBI is preparing to issue a monetary metal parts



    Metal coins from the category of 25 fils were in circulation until the nineties of the last century

    Nora Albjara member of the committee of economy and investment in the House of Representatives revealed that the central bank completed its preparations for the issuance of metal coins of seven small groups, in conjunction with the implementation of the project to delete the three zeroes from the paper currency is currently in circulation.

    She said in her statement Albjara Radio Free Iraq, "said the project will take between four and five years, and which will be the launch of the categories of small coins gradually."

    He predicted the financial expert Hilal Taan inflation rate declines, with the issuance of metal coins of small denominations in the daily financial transactions, remarkable that 3% of the value of inflation in Iraq due to the presence of large cash block.

    The economic expert on behalf of Jamil Anton, noted that he may not find coins accepted by a lot of Iraqis, especially young people, due to the existence of an entire generation of Iraqis had not trading coins due to stop use since the early nineties of the twentieth century.

    https://www.iraqhurr.org/content/article/26666313.html

    and

    Another "FLASHBACK"...

    Economists Divided Over Deletion Of Zeros

    By Amina al-Dahabi for Al-Monitor.

    The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) has been attempting to delete three zeros from the Iraqi currency since 2003. This project has raised many concerns among the Iraqi public and within the business community, and Iraqi economists are divided…

    …Haider al-Abadi, the head of the Iraqi parliamentary Finance Committee, told Al-Monitor that while deleting zeros from the current currency is possible, this has been postponed until after parliamentary elections. He noted that studies are being carried out to ensure that, following the currency change, counterfeiting is limited and that Iraqis don’t go back to trading in the old currency.

    The step to delete zeros from the currency has been postponed several times, leading the parliamentary Economic Committee to demand that the CBI accelerate this project, as Al-Sharqiya reported. In a news conference held July 6, the Economic Committee confirmed that the deletion of zeros will lead to an increase in the value of the Iraqi dinar and will have positive repercussions, including a reduction in unemployment and poverty rates in the country.

    ARTICLE LINK

  2. #2

    Re: The Dinar Daily, Tuesday December 2, 2014

    Currency Auctions

    Announcement No. (2832)

    The latest daily currency auction was held in the Central Bank of Iraq on the 02-12-2014 results were as follows:

    DETAILS NOTES
    Number of banks 13
    Auction price selling dinar / US$ 1166
    Auction price buying dinar / US$ -----
    Amount sold at auction price (US$) 149,353,000
    Amount purchased at Auction price (US$) -----
    Total offers for buying (US$) 149,353,000
    Total offers for selling (US$) -----

    Market Rate 1197 !!

  3. #3

    Re: The Dinar Daily, Tuesday December 2, 2014


    sczin11- It is Official!

    Cabinet announces the approval of the agreement Baghdad Arbil
    TUESDAY 0.02 1 DECEMBER / DECEMBER 2014 13:06 SHAFAQ-A




    Cabinet announces the approval of the agreement Baghdad Arbil


    https://translate.googleusercontent.c...bsbc5q_iYx_Knw
    Last edited by AR Transplant; 12-03-2014 at 03:05 AM.

  4. #4

    Re: The Dinar Daily, Tuesday December 2, 2014


    sczin11- Can you say Mainstream Media? Yay!

    Iraqi government reaches deal with Kurds on oil, budget
    ARBIL, Iraq Tue Dec 2, 2014 4:21 am EST


    (Reuters) - has a formal with Kurdish regional covering oil exports and budget a senior Kurdish official said on Tuesday.


    Hemin Hawrami gave no details of the accord but Iraqi state television said that it provided for the export of up to 300,000 barrels per day of Kirkuk oil and payment by the federal government of 17 percent of the national budget to the Kurdish regional government.

    https://translate.googleusercontent.c...q7fchU5N1nV0OA

  5. #5

    Re: The Dinar Daily, Tuesday December 2, 2014

    Rise in the shares of companies producing oil in Kurdistan



    Khandan
    - received firms producing oil from them (Genel Energy) and (Gulf Keystone Petroleum) an initial payment of dues for oil exports from the Kurdistan region, paving the way for the stability of the revenues of producers in the region.

    She (Genel Energy) on Tuesday, the partners in the Taq Taq oil field received a down payment totaling $ 30 million from the Kurdistan Regional Government for oil exports through the pipeline between the region and Turkey.

    Genel and added that it expected to receive the partners in the field Tauki the same amount of the Kurdistan Regional Government. The company owns DNO Norwegian majority stake in the field.

    According to Genel listed in the London Stock Exchange that its share of these payments is $ 24 million.

    She continued, "It is expected that payments become more regular with the discipline of the Kurdistan Regional Government budget in early 2015".

    Shares in companies after receiving the news where Genel shares rose 5.4 percent and 4.4 percent DNO in early trading.

    In early November the Kurdistan government has pledged to pay for oil producers an initial payment of $ 75 million and begin to pay regular payments.

    It was the first of these payments as repayment of Gulf Keystone Petroleum Company also announced the receipt of $ 15 million for crude exports from its field Sheikhan.

    CEO John Geristnlor said in a statement, "We continue to have constructive discussions with the Kurdistan Regional Government regarding the full payments received for sales of oil."

    And Gulf Keystone shares rose 6.2 percent in early trading.

    The Company (MOL) partner Gulf Keystone It welcomes this news and it will receive its share of the $ 15 million payment under the terms of a production sharing agreement signed with the partners.


    https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&hl=en&rurl=translate.google.com&sandbox=0&sl=ar&tl=en&u=https://www.faceiraq.com/inews.php%3Fid%3D3289065&usg=ALkJrhjd9xdzu4Bzbfw_Pa9DqE9a621dNw
    Last edited by sczin11; 12-02-2014 at 10:32 AM.

  6. #6

    Re: The Dinar Daily, Tuesday December 2, 2014

    Barzani: We are very happy .. We have reached an agreement and finally Baghdad pay trillion and 200 billion dinars for the Peshmerga



    Twilight News / The President of the Kurdistan Regional Government Nechirvan Barzani, on Tuesday, the two delegations of Kurdistan and Iraqi negotiators reached an agreement in the interest of Iraq and the region, stressing Baghdad's approval to grant trillion and 200 billion dinars for the Peshmerga forces.

    Barzani said in a statement to reporters that "the meeting went very well, and we see a good chance of Baghdad during our discussions with the Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and new ministers in his government, and they want to solve the problems with the Kurdistan Region in a serious manner."

    "We are delighted today to reach several agreements in the interest of the Kurdistan region and Baghdad, as the two sides can Icola we have succeeded in these negotiations, for us, our priority is to solve the problems with Baghdad."

    He explained that "the agreement was the day that we secure 250 barrels of oil per day to the Baghdad government and help them in the export of oil from Kirkuk, against the insurance portion of the Kurdistan Region of the budget amounting to 17%."

    And on the Peshmerga forces, Barzani said that "the price of the role of the Peshmerga Abadi and struggle, and agreed to put about a trillion and 200 billion dinars for the Peshmerga forces, and considered that the Peshmerga of Iraqi defense system, and lay out the proportion of the defense budget for the Peshmerga."

    He explained that "the agreement was the day that we secure 250 barrels of oil per day to the Baghdad government and help them in the export of oil from Kirkuk, against the insurance portion of the Kurdistan Region of the budget amounting to 17%."

    And on the Peshmerga forces, Barzani said that "the price of the role of the Peshmerga Abadi and struggle, and agreed to put about a trillion and 200 billion dinars for the Peshmerga forces, and considered that the Peshmerga of Iraqi defense system, and lay out the proportion of the defense budget for the Peshmerga."

    He said that "these agreements is a good start, and gain good for all parties, it has crossed a good stage in the Kurdistan Region, compared to the previous period, and we hope to start practical implementation agreement soon."

    https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&hl=en&rurl=translate.google.com&sandbox=0&sl=ar&tl=en&u=https://www.faceiraq.com/inews.php%3Fid%3D3289070&usg=ALkJrhi83wIT-KJGbUF7k2LUNa4TNInBWQ
    Last edited by sczin11; 12-02-2014 at 11:02 AM.

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