SWFG speaks about the inevitable but unknown ............
SWFloridaGuy & Iraq Currency - Post By Leo GET Forum..
SWFloridaGuy: I...know that there are many possibilities where we could profit from this long term and that Iraq will one day boast a more valuable currency. By which means they accomplish this and the timing are complete unknowns.
I've studied macroeconomics and the problem is sustaining long term growth. There are a number of ways they could accomplish this though and eventually they will have one of the strongest currencies in the M.E. My doubts lie with this being in the immediate future.
However, the hardest thing about the road not taken is that you never know where it might have led. I'm certainly grateful to be involved. I believe this will have a happy ending and prove very profitable but when it comes to the mechanisms by which they will achieve this is what perplexes me.
Basically, I recognize the challenges they face and don't like to simplify it but I also believe that if this was ever going to be possible, Iraq is the only country who can pull it off and not alone, which is why the international support they have been receiving gives me hope there is far more to the story than meets the eye.
I think it will happen, I think it will happen in a way none of us expected it to...they have unlimited potential. It's absurd for them to remain with a worthless currency.
The question has never been whether one day it will recover somewhere on par with the USD or higher.
The question is, by what means will they achieve this, what the rules will be and the timing.
A currency's value is determined solely by supply and demand. They must ensure the success of the project and they have to have power sharing government to do that to prevent abuse and the eventually collapse of the economy.
If you were in charge of the largest transfer of wealth in history and something that could jump start the entire global economy would you implement this project before or after the necessary step had been taken to facilitate a smooth transition, a Central Bank that was fully functionally and not operating under complete corruption that could jeopardize such an important enterprise?
I've spoken to a someone on the support staff of Olivier Blanchard (IMF) research dep about this and he agrees. He also agrees that Iraq is currently in the process of trying to move forward with a major currency reform project.
Not sure is that means just deleting the zeros, RV etc. but that's what real intel sounds like. I spoke to him about this almost 8 months ago and it's still the most encouraging thing I've ever heard.
He also mentioned that it is imperative to moving forward to have a stable government that will give the international community faith in Iraq as a reliable store of value. UNSC and SIGR report also said that investment will remain hampered until security and the political crisis has been resolved. They are close though and the Chapter VII progress shows they are on the right path to recovery...