Ok folks, I think most of us can agree that something major shall happen before 2013 and all probably know what that is. I'd like to know what you speculate the RV rate will be out the gate. I'm sticking to my $1.13 to $2.47 range but I'd like to hear yours as well.
what's it matter? let's just do this thing! the money will evaluate over time. If you want more bang for your buck (dinar) hold em. Exchange a portion of your investment...bank the rest in the safe deposit box until you're ready to pay your pound of flesh to the tax man and then exchange some more.
Randy Koonce says the rate should be $3.41 to meet the budget over there. I think the rate will be near or slightly higher than Kuwait's as a matter of Iraqi pride, plus they have so much more in the way of resources than Kuwait does, and this would show the world that they do. I think it will be close to $4.00. But as someone said above, let them just do it already so we can stop guessing and start celebrating.
Shabbibi has publically stated a number of rate options, all the way up to double digit (a rate the country could sustain). But the rate most quoted in articles is a rate of 1:1 to the USD. The UN mandate is to have a rate of over $1.00. The best rate most recent specifically used is $0.90. I am saying it will come out at $0.90 - $1.00. It will go through an RV at some point, either a full RV or through a longer term managed float at around $3.50. That is what I am looking for.
Last edited by Gypsy Vardo; 08-16-2012 at 04:17 AM.
Here's a thought . .
Kuwait rvs from 3.55 to 3.95
Iraq takes notice, not to be out done
and ups their rv to 4.50
Kuwait rvs again to 4.95
and Iraq ends up a 5.50
Thats when we empty our safe deposit boxes!
Then . . like Med said not too long ago:
After Rv Iraq will only mean to us . . something
that we'll do at the pool-table!
Or something my wife says after getting
a brand new bra ! !
Last edited by Bigdeal; 08-16-2012 at 03:46 AM.
Bigdeal, that's an interesting thought, the only thing I'm wondering is: is Kuwait's currency on a managed float? If it is, there's no way they can bump their rate like that. And Iraq will only be able to as long as theirs remains a dirty float. Once they go to managed float, post-RV, they can only go up or down 2 or 3% (I forget what the number is) every 90 days. That's why I'm not a big proponent of the "start low/go high later" theory. I think they're going to pretty much come out near where they will end up and only tweak it a little over time. So I think the rate will start in the $3.xx range.
A note to those who say $1=1 dinar: remember, the articles are written to Iraqis, not American dinarians. Shabs is merely stating that the dinar will be on an equal footing with the dollar, not be at the same value. He wants to get his fellow Iraqis to switch to the dinar away from the dollar. You don't do that at one dollar per dinar. The Iraqis will look at both and say "better the infidel you know (dollar), than the infidel you don't (dinar)." Ever since Saddam, they've totally lost confidence in their own currency. The way to win their confidence back is to show them a dinar that completely eclipses the dollar, as a strong $3 per dinar would do. Hopefully we'll see very soon what the rate actually will be, but I just want folks to know there IS an answer to the ones who use Shabibi's statements as proof that the dinar will only come out at a dollar, initially. Shabs will do whatever he wants to do, but I think Iraqi pride will make the dinar come out much higher than the dollar, and for the reasons I stated.
The IMF gave Iraq permission to RI @ $3.22 and they can add 20 percent for inflation for a potential $3.86. However, the IMF told Iraq they cannot go above .10 of Kuwait. So, if Kuwait is at $3.55 today, and Shabb's, CBI claim that the Dinar is going to be the strongest currency in the ME, than the RV could be equal to $3.65, IMO.
I am ready for what ever they come with, just bring it!!!!