I've always believed in a conservative rate of $1.13 to $2.47 as I've explained in another thread in Dinar Updates. Adam Montana, who I have a high level of respect for speculated a .10 Cent RV some time ago but after reading this from him now makes me wonder if his theory is still the same.
7-11-2012 Adam Montana (Part 2): Quite honestly - this potential upside is what I love about being involved in the ISX and the IQD in general. Yes, there is a potential downside but the upside possibilities are staggering and I am not going to simply ignore it. Iraq is still under a couple pieces of Chapter 7. Until Chapter 7 is COMPLETELY removed, they are not sovereign. I think it's realistic to see something between now and December. Every day we are seeing more and more articles about Iraq's progress and their determination to make improvements in their economy, government, and value of their currency. I'm not going to blow smoke up your butt and tell you that it's likely to happen tomorrow but that doesn't mean it CAN'T happen tomorrow. It could, it might, or it might not. There is nothing set in concrete stopping it. Personally, it makes more sense to me that they will do something that gives them financial gain. If THEY gain on the value of the Dinar, then so do we. Iraq does have more natural resources and definitely should have a currency valued at or higher than a country like Egypt. That's another reason I'm hanging onto my IQD.
I remember Adam Montana speculating an exchange rate for the IQD for .10 Cents to the USD several months ago. In the above statement, he mentioned that "Iraq does have more natural resources and definitely should have a currency valued at or higher than a country like Egypt." As I research the exchange rate of the Egyptian Pound, it's currently at .16 Cents. I wonder if this erases his theory of a .10 Cent RV of the IQD.
I heard Montana come out about a month ago, admitting that he was "probably wrong" about his .10 theory. He read what someone else said about the RV, and it changed his outlook. He now believes it will be well above .10 although I do not know exactly how high he thinks it will be. Probably around a dollar? I happen to think it will be in the $3 range since that is where it was when we brought it down, and you have to take into account that the dollar has lost value since then. Iraq should be somewhere around Kuwait's rate, for many reasons: natural resources, pride, history, etc. It's fun to debate, but we'll all see the reality when it finally does come out, which I hope is sooner rather than later.
DinarGroupie, where you been all day? Hey I hope you're right on the $3 range. My predictions are only conservative but I wouldn't debate with a $3 range at all because the more attractive the currency, the more work will get done over there. But I will debate a below $1 rate though lol. But good post, it kinda looked as if Adam was changing his outlook a little bit but I didn't want to make any assumptions. Thanks for enlightening me on that.
Hehehe, I pop in and out! I used to be online ALL DAY LONG but now I've learned to just check on things, do something else, then come back and see what everyone is saying. It makes for a more sane life that way! My pleasure, JayLee202! Yeah, I'm ready for anything over a dollar, and cannot wait because I've got big plans, ya know? God bless as we wait this thing out, hopefully to come to a close very soon now!
JayLee, I spoke too soon. Now Adam Montana is claiming that our worst case scenario is a LOP! I don't buy the LOP theory at all. I believe that at least some that teach the LOP theory do so to pump dinars, since the only return they expect to see is on a huge purchase of dinars. It will be at least a dollar for a dinar.
Selling the LOP theory as a pump to try to get people to buy a lot more dinars would only work if there were a lot of dinar speculators with a lot of expendable cash to plop down wouldn't it?
Wouldn't it make more sense as a pump to sell the no-LOP theory in order to try to spur the majority into buying which is mostly made up of smaller investors?
I must be dense or crazy because my perspective on this LOP/NO-LOP pumper relationship seems to be 180° from what most posters are saying. Time will tell what's what and who's who I suppose.
Kbip, no, I don't think so, and here's why: If a guy comes out and says, "Hey, the dinar should come out at $4 (for example)," A little math will tell you that if you buy even just 5 million dinars, you'll be sitting pretty at $20 million dollars. But if someone says that the dinar will only come out at ten cents, well you're going to need 10 million dinars just to come out at one million dollars, so probably you'll try to buy fifty million so you can at least have five million dollars. And if it comes out at a LOP where the best you will do is maybe 5 times or 10 times what you paid for it, if you're lucky, you'd need to buy a billion dinars, and even then you'd only get a million dollar for them at a straight LOP, maybe 5 or 10 million if it's a modified LOP. Do you see how a super-low rate or a LOP makes people feel the need to buy more dinar, not less?
You're right about the "expendable cash" part, except for the reserves. You can put down a small percentage, then if the RV happens during the reserve period, you could borrow from everyone you know to get the money you need to pay off all those reserves so you could get them. Anyway, that's why I think LOP theorists and low rate theorists are dinar pumpers, at least some of them.
Another theory I have is that the uber-rich don't like the idea of little people like you and me even being in this investment because we haven't earned our stripes in their eyes to deserve it, so they put out things to discourage us, like calling this investment a scam, telling us we won't get anything much from it even when it does RV, or telling us that we're years away. Then we sell ours back, and the rich get to stay on as the only ones who get to be rich. We get kept in our places. I have heard a lot of Dinarians have done just that and have given up and sold their dinars. I never will, until the RV.